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Crazy to think that just a week ago we were in the 70's all week! This turned out to be quite the ice storm to say the least. Ice accretion is around .5-.75" and trees are breaking like match sticks.

Came to West Virginia last week and have been here since. I’ve been lucky to have a lot of time off with Covid. It’s easily the most beautiful place I’ve ever been. Too bad the storm wiped most of the

1.41” of rain/freezing rain here so far. Crazy how much of a difference one or maybe two degrees make.  looking at my weather station, the temperature was between 31.6-32.2 all night long while we’v

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ORD tied a record high of 74F yesterday and also began the 1st day of a string of 70's in the forecast which may set or tie a record for consecutive 70's in November.  Iirc, this pattern reminds me of Nov '07 that turned out to be a real warm month.  Needless to say, this warm spell will have some legs to it so get out and enjoy some pleasant late autumn weather.  Meanwhile, we are heading into the upper 90's here in AZ and may set an all time record high temp for the month of November!  Why not?  It's been the story here in the SW for this entire warm season.

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Today's JMA weeklies show case an extended period of AN temps for literally everyone east of the Rockies for the remainder of this month.  Thanksgiving week may feature a blow torch and the CFSv2 agrees as well.

Next 30 days...

Y202011.D0412_gl2.png

 

wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.png

 

Unless I see changes up in the stratosphere, this pattern will remain warm into early December.  Would you rather have a warm pattern now then in Winter??

This animation below really provides a good clue that the Eastern CONUS will be stuck in a massive ridge for the foreseeable future.  

Northern Hemisphere 10 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

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The overnight low here at my house was a warm (for November) 53. The official overnight low at GRR was 54 and if that holds until midnight it will make it the 3rd warmest minimum for any November 5th. At the current time it is partly cloudy here and 54.

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Second straight day.

Quote

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS
450 PM CST WED NOV 4 2020

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT FARGO HECTOR INTL AP ND...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 74 WAS SET AT THE FARGO HECTOR 
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 70 SET IN 
1975.
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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Mega weenie storm in Montana on Euro Sunday into Monday. Sadly, it cuts North and looks to affect SK and MB from there.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Some very warm air will break potentially some records here in Detroit in the coming days:

Here are the record high temperatures for Saturday November 7th,
Sunday November 8th, Monday November 9th, and Tuesday November 10th:

November 7th...
Detroit                70 (set in 1916)

November 8th...
Detroit                71 (set in 1915)

November 9th...
Detroit                75 (set in 1999)

November 10th...
Detroit                68 (set in 1999)
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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Attm, 62F under cloudy skies.

Yesterday temps were in the 70s, but no record. Sunshine all day. Was an excellent day to be outside.

Note: This is the type of weather that I like experiencing in November, especially the first 3 weeks. Mild and no snow. Save the best for later.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Question for anyone that can answer this:

If a "Tropical System" loses its characteristics and its original name at the same time, does it regain the same name that it once had, if it intensifies, or does it get a different one.

 

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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48 minutes ago, Niko said:

Question for anyone that can answer this:

If a "Tropical System" loses its characteristics and its original name at the same time, does it regain the same name that it once had, if it intensifies, or does it get a different one.

 

Not sure it this really answers your question 

It can happen every few years, when a tropical cyclone crosses from the Caribbean Sea (the Atlantic Basin list) into the Pacific Ocean. In this case, the storm keeps its original name if it maintains tropical storm strength. If it falls falls apart over land but then regenerates officials with the National Hurricane Center decide whether or not to give it a new Pacific Ocean name.

Not sure how this works out if the storms stays in the same basin

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GFS looks to be an all rain event. Euro is a bit more generous for C NE into MN. I hope we can at least get some decent rain out of this but I'm not holding my breath. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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The weather this week has been excellent.  We've gone above 70º the last three days, with more to come.  Typically, one would expect strong wind with a 70º temp this time of year, but that is not the case this time.

It appears it will become more active next week.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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6 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

That transient ridge+tropical boom combo coming up is so darn repetitive that it's stupid. Warm.... 

So the question being if we verify warm, punt til December? What a crazy change in the models in a couple day.

It's rather rare to see a 500mb map as such in the month of November...looks more like something you'll see in September..."Ridge over Troubled waters"...I'm curious to see what this patter delivers once that -NAO appears later in Winter and then that massive trough driving into the west/sw.  I'm looking forward to the pattern change heading my way here in AZ.  Mountain snows will fall and much needed precip here in the valley.

Meantime, PHX smashed the old record for the date and for the month of November hitting an astonishing 99F yesterday!  Unbelievable.  I tell ya, it's been quite a year of Heat over this way.  Everyone I talk to has had enough of this relentless pattern.  That trough in the SW is eye candy for not only AZ but So Cal.  Let the wave train begin.

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_12.png

 

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The official low for November 5th 2020 at Grand Rapids was 50 this is a 8 way tie for the 5th warmest minimum for any November 5th. The official low at Grand Rapids so far today is 49 if that holds it will become the a tie for the 4th warmest minimum for any November 6th. Looking ahead the record high for today is 77 set in 1975 that looks to be safe but we are is range for top 5. For tomorrow the record is 69. For Sunday it is 72 for Monday it is 73 For Tuesday it is 67. All days are is striking range for the record and could all be a top 5. A very warm early November to say the least. We will have to see it this will become the warmest start to any November.

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46 minutes ago, westMJim said:

The official low for November 5th 2020 at Grand Rapids was 50 this is a 8 way tie for the 5th warmest minimum for any November 5th. The official low at Grand Rapids so far today is 49 if that holds it will become the a tie for the 4th warmest minimum for any November 6th. Looking ahead the record high for today is 77 set in 1975 that looks to be safe but we are is range for top 5. For tomorrow the record is 69. For Sunday it is 72 for Monday it is 73 For Tuesday it is 67. All days are is striking range for the record and could all be a top 5. A very warm early November to say the least. We will have to see it this will become the warmest start to any November.

There was a recent warm start to November as well in GR.   Can't remember the year.  2017? 18?

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On 11/5/2020 at 6:22 AM, Tom said:

ORD tied a record high of 74F yesterday and also began the 1st day of a string of 70's in the forecast which may set or tie a record for consecutive 70's in November.  Iirc, this pattern reminds me of Nov '07 that turned out to be a real warm month.  Needless to say, this warm spell will have some legs to it so get out and enjoy some pleasant late autumn weather.  Meanwhile, we are heading into the upper 90's here in AZ and may set an all time record high temp for the month of November!  Why not?  It's been the story here in the SW for this entire warm season.

Several analog years had warm Novembers, including 2010 and 1975, but 2007 was only warm the first 20 days, then stayed cold the final 10 days and ended up 0.9F BN here. And, that month the max temp was a couple of 59F days, which we are blowing waaayyy past. Why'd you leave now with actual perfect wx for Chicago just to bake out west??

 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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29 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Several analog years had warm Novembers, including 2010 and 1975, but 2007 was only warm the first 20 days, then stayed cold the final 10 days and ended up 0.9F BN here. And, that month the max temp was a couple of 59F days, which we are blowing waaayyy past. Why'd you leave now with actual perfect wx for Chicago just to bake out west??

 

I left for business and pleasure...today will probably mark the last day of 90F+ days for the year.  Tomorrow begins a long stretch of BN days which are going to feature days in the 60's and low 70's.  I'm looking forward to seeing some snow up in the mountains this Sun/Mon.

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I was out for my walk and was very nice to be outside in November without a coat on. At this time I have sunny skies and 70 the official reading is now 69 and the high for the day at GRR looks to be 70 and that is good for the 3rd warmest November 3rd on record.

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5 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

One of these would be nice. Winter weather awareness week  

 

I can't remember the last time a low took that path.  It almost always cuts north through Iowa.  It's pretty rare that our NE, IA and IL/Chicago posters all get hit with a snowstorm from the same system. 

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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51 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

I can't remember the last time a low took that path.  It almost always cuts north through Iowa.  It's pretty rare that our NE, IA and IL/Chicago posters all get hit with a snowstorm from the same system. 

Feb 2015, Nov 2015, Dec 2000 for a few

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I was awaken by a couple brief showers that popped up as the first signs of the pattern change has begun over here.  Precip has finally made it into the state of Arizona!  Yippeee!  There are no gutters on houses over here so when it rains the water just flows right onto the concrete or ground which is sorta loud if your not used to it.  Anyway, it's nice to wake up to sound of rain and the smells of the desert.  Got my south facing patio deck door open allowing a nice breeze to flow into the room.

Back home, records are almost certain to be broken and set.  I'm rooting for it!  Amazing late season warmth for the Upper MW...wow, low 80's for Duluth!  2020 has been an anomaly and it shall continue.

 

1.jpg

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At this time the mean at Grand Rapids this November is 50.4° that is a departure of +5.6. The high so far has been 72  and the low so far is 27. There has been a total of 0.2" of snow fall. For today we will have record or near record temperatures. The record for today is 69 set in1916. And there well be more near record or record highs for   several days. The official over night low at GRR was 52 but it was a cooler 43 here at my house and that trend continues as the last reading at the airport was 54 and the current reading here at my house is 44 with clear skies.  You know yesterday when going for my walk I thought for a while that is was October instead of November.
 

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4 hours ago, westMJim said:

At this time the mean at Grand Rapids this November is 50.4° that is a departure of +5.6. The high so far has been 72  and the low so far is 27. There has been a total of 0.2" of snow fall. For today we will have record or near record temperatures. The record for today is 69 set in1916. And there well be more near record or record highs for   several days. The official over night low at GRR was 52 but it was a cooler 43 here at my house and that trend continues as the last reading at the airport was 54 and the current reading here at my house is 44 with clear skies.  You know yesterday when going for my walk I thought for a while that is was October instead of November.
 

Agree with you. More months swapping places like Nov and Dec last year did.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Sunny and warm attm w temps at 72F. Gotta luv this weather this time of the year. I almost kinda wish it can hang around throughout the entire month. Nice warm days and coolish nites. The best!

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Switching gears now:

Latest on ETA:

https://wordpress.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/zoom-out-track.jpg?w=632

https://wordpress.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Screen-Shot-2020-11-07-at-11.04.58-AM.png?w=632

https://wordpress.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/page-31.jpg?w=632

https://wordpress.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/page-32.jpg?w=632

As of 11 a.m. EST Saturday, Eta was centered 45 miles west-northwest of Grand Cayman with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. Present movement is to the northeast at 17 mph.

 

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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2 hours ago, westMJim said:

NEW RECORD HIGH. A new record high of 71 has been record for November 7th has been reached at Grand Rapids the old record was 69 set in 1916.
 

I remember gun season opening week in '75 and being hot in my gear during the afternoons. Not sure how warm it got in NWMI but that was another week deeper into the month. The following winter was known as a "LES winter" as that was the region's that did best in the snow dept. Though my home region near KFNT had a decent season by their standards.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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51 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I remember gun season opening week in '75 and being hot in my gear during the afternoons. Not sure how warm it got in NWMI but that was another week deeper into the month. The following winter was known as a "LES winter" as that was the region's that did best in the snow dept. Though my home region near KFNT had a decent season by their standards.

Here in Grand Rapids in November of 1975 then month started out very warm with highs between the 2nd and 10th in the mid to upper 60's and there was a high of 77 on the 6th. For deer season the high was 66 on the 16th 67 on the 17th 68 on the 18th and 65 on the 19th. It looks like most highs in norther lower were several degrees cooler than that. So low to mid 60's would be a good bet.  

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At 23:01 on November 7, it is 60.8°F. The temp is not going to get lower tonight.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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