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GFS upgrade Feb 2021


Black Hole

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The GFS model is getting another big upgrade in Feb 2021. I imagine parallel runs will appear on weathermodels or weatherbell if they haven't already.
 
The northern hemisphere resolution will increase from 1/2 degree to 1/6 degree. Resolution varies as a function of latitude, but my understanding is that it should give ~9 km resolution and be comparable to the ECMWF.
Vertical resolution will double as well which is also very important.
 
A number of behind the scene fixes will add to the accuracy of the model. This will be a very substantial improvement.
 
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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Pivotalweather.com does have it, called GFSv16, and TT also has it, called GFS-para.  Pivotal's is better because it shows all of North America.  And weathermodels.com has it too.  Guessing Weather Bell also has it.

It does run behind though. It is running last night's 0Z run at 3:30 today.  That is true for all the weather sites, so I am guessing it is the NCEP that is lagging.

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6 hours ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Pivotalweather.com does have it, called GFSv16, and TT also has it, called GFS-para.  Pivotal's is better because it shows all of North America.  And weathermodels.com has it too.  Guessing Weather Bell also has it.

It does run behind though. It is running last night's 0Z run at 3:30 today.  That is true for all the weather sites, so I am guessing it is the NCEP that is lagging.

Indeed, they have to wait until later to run it when more compute resources are available. Thanks for the comments!

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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On 10/29/2020 at 6:32 PM, Black Hole said:
The GFS model is getting another big upgrade in Feb 2021. I imagine parallel runs will appear on weathermodels or weatherbell if they haven't already.
 
The northern hemisphere resolution will increase from 1/2 degree to 1/6 degree. Resolution varies as a function of latitude, but my understanding is that it should give ~9 km resolution and be comparable to the ECMWF.
Vertical resolution will double as well which is also very important.
 
A number of behind the scene fixes will add to the accuracy of the model. This will be a very substantial improvement.
 

Now if they’d just upgrade the cloud microphysics/cumulus parameterization. 🤓

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On 10/31/2020 at 1:38 PM, Phil said:

Now if they’d just upgrade the cloud microphysics/cumulus parameterization. 🤓

The cloud microphysics will have an update but I don't know about any cumulus changes. 

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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18 hours ago, Black Hole said:

The cloud microphysics will have an update but I don't know about any cumulus changes. 

😭 

AFAIK that’s the #1 issue with the GFS in the subtropics.

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On 11/6/2020 at 8:50 AM, Phil said:

😭 

AFAIK that’s the #1 issue with the GFS in the subtropics.

True, but my guess is this will be addressed in a future update...I mean they have to know!

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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