The Swamp Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 35 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: At least the GFS goes somewhere decent in the long range. is it going to be that kind of winter? everything looks great at day 16 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 I like the evolution late this week on the 18z vs the previous few runs. The southern portion of the trough doesn't cut off so badly, and the trough digs back more after it has dug in. Good run. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 6 minutes ago, puyallupjon said: is it going to be that kind of winter? everything looks great at day 16 I don't get why everyone is so down today. The models are still advertising a long period of well below normal temps. Not sure what people are looking for right now. The general theme is high GOA heights which means cold weather. This pattern will cause the West Coast SSTs to plunge also which is never a bad thing. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 The 18z GFS shows a menacing tropical storm / hurricane that meanders for days around Cuba and Florida. Crazy year for the Atlantic. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted November 1, 2020 Report Share Posted November 1, 2020 11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I don't get why everyone is so down today. The models are still advertising a long period of well below normal temps. Not sure what people are looking for right now. The general theme is high GOA heights which means cold weather. This pattern will cause the West Coast SSTs to plunge also which is never a bad thing. Snowpack pattern Jim. We will need some decent zonal flow at some point. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 6 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said: Snowpack pattern Jim. We will need some decent zonal flow at some point. Everyone is always so worried about that and it always works out except for some rare El Nino winters. The water alarmists are there every year. Even if the core of the winter is dry I'm sure the late winter and early spring will bring huge amounts of snow to the mountains. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Everyone is always so worried about that and it always works out except for some rare El Nino winters. The water alarmists are there every year. Even if the core of the winter is dry I'm sure the late winter and early spring will bring huge amounts of snow to the mountains. Yikes... 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 Getting dark out! 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 Because we aren’t in a 7 year long term drought or anything... 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 Isn't it beautiful? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 7 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: Isn't it beautiful? Gorgeous. 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 Hey, I'm new here. Howdy. 18z featured a superbly outstanding mountain snow pattern, and yeah depending on the configuration of the block as it reorganizes we could turn quite cold here. C'MON!!!! 00z NAM in 1 hour 4 minutes 00z GFS in 2 hours 53 minutes 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 The 18z GFS ensemble is colder than normal for the entire run after the next few days. Normally people would be pretty happy with that. 2 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Hey, I'm new here. Howdy. 18z featured a superbly outstanding mountain snow pattern, and yeah depending on the configuration of the block as it reorganizes we could turn quite cold here. C'MON!!!! 00z NAM in 1 hour 4 minutes 00z GFS in 2 hours 53 minutes We could get into a cold and wet regime at times, but with the blocking that is highly precarious. I sure hope it happens just to cheer some people up on here. In the meantime I'm going to enjoy all of the cold weather that's coming. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The 18z GFS ensemble is colder than normal for the entire run after the next few days. Normally people would be pretty happy with that. Big time La Nina written all over it! YEAH! C'MON!!!! 00z ECMWF in 5 hours 4 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 Doesn't look like any meaningful cold weather on the way yet. 11/20/2020! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 4 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: Doesn't look like any meaningful cold weather on the way yet. 11/20/2020! 2/20/21 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 Earliest solar noon of the year tomorrow. Enjoy the cooler weather when it arrives, preferably outdoors to limit the spread of covid. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 Nice warm sunny day. Feel's a lot later than 5:30 however 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 68/30 HIO 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 Down to 44. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 C'MON Man........ 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 67 today, warm and beats out last years 65. The new norm? At least I started with 31 degrees this morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakeinthevalley Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 Planned on one of the last lawn mowing of the year and the starter cord decided to snap. Too late in the day to replace it. Pacific Standard Time sucks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 39 minutes ago, jakeinthevalley said: Planned on one of the last lawn mowing of the year and the starter cord decided to snap. Too late in the day to replace it. Pacific Standard Time sucks. If you pulled the debris cover, and the recoil off to expose the flywheel, then put your cordless (or corded) drill on the flywheel bolt and crank that puppy over until it starts, and wham you are in business! Get the flashlight and go for it! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakeinthevalley Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 13 minutes ago, MossMan said: If you pulled the debris cover, and the recoil off to expose the flywheel, then put your cordless (or corded) drill on the flywheel bolt and crank that puppy over until it starts, and wham you are in business! Get the flashlight and go for it! This is the second time it has broken in the last several months. You mentioned that advise before and I am still too chicken to try it!!! I just had to replace the starter in my daughter's car last week (after a hefty tow bill) so I guess internal combustion engines are conspiring against me this year!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 I like the 00z NAM at Day 3 cuts the trough off sooner/ridge merger sooner. I'd like to see the EURO and GFS do similarly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 I think I'm seeing a similar trend with the trough 'narrowing' at 160 W between the strengthening Aleutian ridge and our flat offshore ridge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 Just now, DJ Droppin said: I think I'm seeing a similar trend with the trough 'narrowing' at 160 W between the strengthening Aleutian ridge and our flat offshore ridge. Still somewhat newish to the weather game. Does this mean that we get colder air and does not slide the east or... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Still somewhat newish to the weather game. Does this mean that we get colder air and does not slide the east or... Cold air wouldn't dump south off Alaska with the trough well offshore as models have been showing the past few days. It would come down more from the northwest/north-northwest perhaps just off the BC Coast. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 Yep. Day 3 (Past 4 runs) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 Day 3 (Pivotal) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 Day 4 (Past 4 runs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 Day 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 Day 5.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 Day 6 Arctic trough digging southwest over southern BC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 The 0z is a solid improvement for the weekend trough. Chilly. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 Day 6.5 Chilly 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 Backdoor cold 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 2, 2020 Report Share Posted November 2, 2020 Much colder run. Nice improvement and in the sensible Day 4-7 time frame. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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