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November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


TigerWoodsLibido

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Models showing signs of a robust Niña pattern. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Somebody asked about sunspots.  The activity has picked up a little bit, but way later than was expected and not all that impressive.  Certainly the greatest minimum of any cycle since 1816.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Models showing signs of a robust Niña pattern. 

I'm liking where we're at.  I'm actually glad it's not getting too crazy too early in the game.  Still going to be getting quite chilly very soon though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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26 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Maybe La Nina and El Nino really aren't an actual thing other than the result of weather patterns in general and not a driver of the weather. 

SST anomalies in the equatorial East Pacific seem pretty real. And unlike the blob nonsense there is a pretty observable and predictable cause/effect dynamic.

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1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Weather patterns can cause specific SST anomalies, similiar to the PDO index's that is argued every year.

Typical niño and Niña patterns lag the SST anoms by several months pretty consistently, though. I’m not saying it’s totally cut and dry but it’s an apples to oranges comparison from a practical standpoint.

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27 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Maybe La Nina and El Nino really aren't an actual thing other than the result of weather patterns in general and not a driver of the weather. 

Uh...no.  It is the single biggest driver of mid latitude patterns that there is.  The records clearly indicate a direct correlation.  

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Amazingly it's already down to 41 here tonight.  I was expecting a complete bust for low temp tonight.  I haven't had a minimum above 41 since the pattern change nearly two weeks ago.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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8 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Weather patterns can cause specific SST anomalies, similiar to the PDO index's that is argued every year.

You are correct that PDO can be more a result of where we have been weather pattern wise as opposed to it driving the pattern.  It's not cut and dried with that index.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Quackity quack!

Hydrologic Outlook
WAC057-061-073-031300-

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Seattle WA
250 PM PST Mon Nov 2 2020


...THREAT OF RIVER FLOODING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY FOR
SNOHOMISH, SKAGIT, AND WHATCOM COUNTY...

Due to a series of weather systems moving through the area beginning
on Tuesday, multiple rivers may approach minor flood stage. 3-6
inches of rain is expected in the mountains, with 1-2 inches in
lower elevations. Rivers more likely to reach minor flooding are the
Skagit and Nooksack, but others are possible. Widespread river
flooding is not expected at this time.

Please monitor the latest river forecasts from the National Weather
Service for additional information.
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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Down to 40 now. I would be thrilled if I could pull off a low below 40 tonight.

The ECMWF seems to be moving toward the GFS on the cold shortwave with the block reset about a week out.  That could be a wildcard to morph into something pretty cold.  As for this weekend....the ECMWF indicates perfect surface pressure gradients for max cooling once the cold air is in place.  should be a hard frost in many places.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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ECMWF meteograms for SEA show highs in the mid 40s on 5 consecutive days beginning on Saturday with freezing low temps on 2 days.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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There is another oddball 1949 parallel I just noticed.  The 30 SOI is only modestly high in spite of the very cold ENSO SST's.  I noticed 1949 had that same oddity several years ago so I knew it off the top of my head.  Just an interesting thing to ponder.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1604361600-wpv22ezumlE.png

Could be worse

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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The ECMWF ensemble control is on board with the GFS solution indicating a quick hitting cold trough associated with the block reset next week.  I really like what I'm seeing.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Really need to get me a proper triangular neon sign for the window. Got the night-drive tunes going while watching the overnight GFS...good stuff.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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6 hours ago, puyallupjon said:

This is going to be a historic winter.

The blocking offshore is robust and keeps recreating itself.

Eventually the hammer will drop and the goods will be delivered for the snow lovers.

I'm sure of it.

But will the swamp muster enough white stuff for you to make a snowperson? That is the million dollar question.

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1605106800-dyhCGZyljeo.png

Bachelor is going to have a fun few days.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Tim you have the best filters. Plz tell us what app you use!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Winter starts Friday up here. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Was still dry with a warm 54 degree wind at 5:30am, now at nearly 7:30am I am already up to .27” on the day, and temp down to 47 degrees. Winter is here. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Tim you have the best filters. Plz tell us what app you use!

Honestly... that was one of the most beautiful sunrises I have ever seen.   The colors were intense for about 5 minutes and enhanced by the fall color on the ground.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Honestly... that was one of the most beautiful sunrises I have ever seen.   The colors were intense for about 5 minutes and enhanced by the fall color on the ground.

Was a good one here this morning as well no filter required! 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Honestly... that was one of the most beautiful sunrises I have ever seen.   The colors were intense for about 5 minutes and enhanced by the fall color on the ground.

I get it. A true artist never reveals their secrets. I heard November 1949 had great sunrises, AS WELL.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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30 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That was a pretty intense sunrise... 

20201103_070354.jpg

Glad someone captured it. Wish I had my camera with me while I was heading in to work. It was incredible, looking out past UW and Bellevue from the bridge. 

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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I was out taking pictures...I always watch the cloud forecast for this time of the year through about February.  It can lead to amazing sunrises as fronts approach, and often times the mountain shadows make an appearance too.  Not this morning, but the setting moon and a small rainbow to the west made it an extra special sunrise...pics coming later.

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