BLI snowman Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Released in 1988. It can snow and cold quite a bit in Indiana!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 2 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said: What about the sun angle/sun spots, have not heard much about it lately We’ve moved on to solar noon.....keep up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 Models showing signs of a robust Niña pattern. 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 Somebody asked about sunspots. The activity has picked up a little bit, but way later than was expected and not all that impressive. Certainly the greatest minimum of any cycle since 1816. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Models showing signs of a robust Niña pattern. I'm liking where we're at. I'm actually glad it's not getting too crazy too early in the game. Still going to be getting quite chilly very soon though. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Models showing signs of a robust Niña pattern. Maybe La Nina and El Nino really aren't an actual thing other than the result of weather patterns in general and not a driver of the weather. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 26 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: Maybe La Nina and El Nino really aren't an actual thing other than the result of weather patterns in general and not a driver of the weather. SST anomalies in the equatorial East Pacific seem pretty real. And unlike the blob nonsense there is a pretty observable and predictable cause/effect dynamic. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 1 minute ago, Jesse said: SST anomalies in the equatorial East Pacific seem pretty real. And unlike the blob nonsense there is a pretty observable cause/effect Weather patterns can cause specific SST anomalies, similiar to the PDO index's that is argued every year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said: Weather patterns can cause specific SST anomalies, similiar to the PDO index's that is argued every year. Typical niño and Niña patterns lag the SST anoms by several months pretty consistently, though. I’m not saying it’s totally cut and dry but it’s an apples to oranges comparison from a practical standpoint. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 27 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: Maybe La Nina and El Nino really aren't an actual thing other than the result of weather patterns in general and not a driver of the weather. Uh...no. It is the single biggest driver of mid latitude patterns that there is. The records clearly indicate a direct correlation. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 Amazingly it's already down to 41 here tonight. I was expecting a complete bust for low temp tonight. I haven't had a minimum above 41 since the pattern change nearly two weeks ago. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 8 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: Weather patterns can cause specific SST anomalies, similiar to the PDO index's that is argued every year. You are correct that PDO can be more a result of where we have been weather pattern wise as opposed to it driving the pattern. It's not cut and dried with that index. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 Quackity quack! Hydrologic Outlook WAC057-061-073-031300- Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Seattle WA 250 PM PST Mon Nov 2 2020 ...THREAT OF RIVER FLOODING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY FOR SNOHOMISH, SKAGIT, AND WHATCOM COUNTY... Due to a series of weather systems moving through the area beginning on Tuesday, multiple rivers may approach minor flood stage. 3-6 inches of rain is expected in the mountains, with 1-2 inches in lower elevations. Rivers more likely to reach minor flooding are the Skagit and Nooksack, but others are possible. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time. Please monitor the latest river forecasts from the National Weather Service for additional information. 1 1 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 Down to 40 now. I would be thrilled if I could pull off a low below 40 tonight. The ECMWF seems to be moving toward the GFS on the cold shortwave with the block reset about a week out. That could be a wildcard to morph into something pretty cold. As for this weekend....the ECMWF indicates perfect surface pressure gradients for max cooling once the cold air is in place. should be a hard frost in many places. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 ECMWF meteograms for SEA show highs in the mid 40s on 5 consecutive days beginning on Saturday with freezing low temps on 2 days. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 There is another oddball 1949 parallel I just noticed. The 30 SOI is only modestly high in spite of the very cold ENSO SST's. I noticed 1949 had that same oddity several years ago so I knew it off the top of my head. Just an interesting thing to ponder. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 Could be worse 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 The ECMWF ensemble control is on board with the GFS solution indicating a quick hitting cold trough associated with the block reset next week. I really like what I'm seeing. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 Really need to get me a proper triangular neon sign for the window. Got the night-drive tunes going while watching the overnight GFS...good stuff. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 6 hours ago, puyallupjon said: This is going to be a historic winter. The blocking offshore is robust and keeps recreating itself. Eventually the hammer will drop and the goods will be delivered for the snow lovers. I'm sure of it. But will the swamp muster enough white stuff for you to make a snowperson? That is the million dollar question. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 Bachelor is going to have a fun few days. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 Crazy sunrise with pink in the sky. I hope Tyler gets a real picture. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 Sky is on fire this morning. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 That was a pretty intense sunrise... 5 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 4 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 Tim you have the best filters. Plz tell us what app you use! 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 Winter starts Friday up here. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 Was still dry with a warm 54 degree wind at 5:30am, now at nearly 7:30am I am already up to .27” on the day, and temp down to 47 degrees. Winter is here. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 Low of 46 this morning. Rain started about an hour ago up to 0.03” today. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Tim you have the best filters. Plz tell us what app you use! Honestly... that was one of the most beautiful sunrises I have ever seen. The colors were intense for about 5 minutes and enhanced by the fall color on the ground. 5 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Honestly... that was one of the most beautiful sunrises I have ever seen. The colors were intense for about 5 minutes and enhanced by the fall color on the ground. Was a good one here this morning as well no filter required! Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Honestly... that was one of the most beautiful sunrises I have ever seen. The colors were intense for about 5 minutes and enhanced by the fall color on the ground. I get it. A true artist never reveals their secrets. I heard November 1949 had great sunrises, AS WELL. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 30 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: That was a pretty intense sunrise... Glad someone captured it. Wish I had my camera with me while I was heading in to work. It was incredible, looking out past UW and Bellevue from the bridge. 2 Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 Up to .40” in the last 2hrs. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I get it. A true artist never reveals their secrets. I heard November 1949 had great sunrises, AS WELL. The dynamic range makes me suspect HDR software might be involved. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 I was out taking pictures...I always watch the cloud forecast for this time of the year through about February. It can lead to amazing sunrises as fronts approach, and often times the mountain shadows make an appearance too. Not this morning, but the setting moon and a small rainbow to the west made it an extra special sunrise...pics coming later. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 Here is my morning shot from the kitchen...Complete with the kitchen light reflection through the window!! wet! 4 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 The Friday trough has been really been neutered as it is too cutoff. This was looking like a fantastic weekend for Oregon cascade snow a few days ago, but the 12z gfs only shows a little Saturday night now. Pretty dry by the time the cold front passes. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, MossMan said: Here is my morning shot from the kitchen...Complete with the kitchen light reflection through the window!! wet! Get a watermark on that thing! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 3, 2020 Report Share Posted November 3, 2020 9 minutes ago, MossMan said: Here is my morning shot from the kitchen...Complete with the kitchen light reflection through the window!! wet! Not entirely dissimilar to the view out my kitchen window this morning. No sunrise colors here! 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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