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November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


TigerWoodsLibido

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That Euro run looked like crap. Expect Tim to jump all over that.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That Euro run looked like crap. Expect Tim to jump all over that.

You're joking, right? 188kt jet. 966mb low into Vancouver Island. Big Rains, Mountain snows. 80-100mph winds along the Coast. Day 8+ was the only downside with the ridge popping up over us. EPS could be quite different.

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8 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

You're joking, right? 188kt jet. 966mb low into Vancouver Island. Big Rains, Mountain snows. 80-100mph winds along the Coast. Day 8+ was the only downside with the ridge popping up over us. EPS could be quite different.

You know I only look at day 10. The present is so passé.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Strikingly good agreement with all models in that Day 6-7 time frame to spin up a powerhouse major low around 956-967mb near Vancouver Island. This is fueled by an incredible 180kt+ jet. Very important the next few days to see if the jet is suppressed further south which could put us at risk for a major regional south wind storm. We are long overdue for a big one as we've dodged the bullet. This Fall may be it.

6z GFS in 1 hour 45 minutes

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Sea Ice Index UPDATE

After a bit of a delay with the Arctic Sea Ice recovery building more gradually, now over just the past 2 weeks alone we have gained over 2 million square kilometers of ice! I would love to see that abrupt rapid upward trend continue and by late November reach closer to the 1981-2010 average. C'MON!!!! N_stddev_timeseries.png

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The EPS ensemble mean and control model look a lot more like the operational GFS than the operational ECMWF as we get toward day 10.  The control shows the block reinventing itself time and time again right through day 15.  Lots of cold potential for the foreseeable future.  It's a bit unusual to see this type of pattern set in so early in a La Nina season.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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42 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Strikingly good agreement with all models in that Day 6-7 time frame to spin up a powerhouse major low around 956-967mb near Vancouver Island. This is fueled by an incredible 180kt+ jet. Very important the next few days to see if the jet is suppressed further south which could put us at risk for a major regional south wind storm. We are long overdue for a big one as we've dodged the bullet. This Fall may be it.

6z GFS in 1 hour 45 minutes

The trajectory is a bit off for a classic.  No doubt some places would get windy with what is being shown though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I'm wondering if this might end up being one of the relatively rare winters where we end up with nearly constant moderately below normal temperatures.  Ones like 1916-17, 1948-49, 1978-79, and 1992-93 started off a lot like this.  If we follow the script of those winters it will stay below normal much of the time and grow progressively colder until something more meaningful happens in December and January.  That type of winter usually delivers one or two significant Arctic outbreaks.

I'm not saying it will happen, but it bears some resemblance in the early going to winters that play out that way 

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Wow!  My daily average for Friday was 20 degrees lower than Wednesday.  That's a pretty impressive cold front for these parts.  The average today will be lower yet.  Could be looking at close to a 25 degree drop over three days.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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53 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The trajectory is a bit off for a classic.  No doubt some places would get windy with what is being shown though.

The track and trajectory is definitely not classic, no, but with the raging 180kt jet pointed at us the cold front is very strong. Look at the winds from just the west-east track.

124154529_3439517802822504_1874594299195

124248457_3439520632822221_8391307118210

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Down to 42F. Might get down into the 30s.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Resigned to the fact that it's always going to just torch here anymore.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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1605592800-5I7bLzr14Xg.png

Still looking good in the Cascades.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Made it down to 32F. Didn't see that coming.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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There were more flurries earlier but again they didn't stick.

34 and overcast here.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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8 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

Strikingly good agreement with all models in that Day 6-7 time frame to spin up a powerhouse major low around 956-967mb near Vancouver Island. This is fueled by an incredible 180kt+ jet. Very important the next few days to see if the jet is suppressed further south which could put us at risk for a major regional south wind storm. We are long overdue for a big one as we've dodged the bullet. This Fall may be it.

6z GFS in 1 hour 45 minutes

This notches up my excitement level a bit 🤗

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