Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 WOw. Am I seeing a PDX-EUG of 14-16mb? Holy pancakes.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: IF this panned out we would see HWWarnings for the Coast, Coast Range, AND Valleys/Western Washington. That's putting it lightly (pun intended) Several members are pegging between +21 - 25mb (on par w/Hanukkah Eve of 2006) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 Just now, Jbolin said: That's putting it lightly (pun intended) Several members are pegging between +21 - 25mb (on par w/Hanukkah Eve of 2006) Here we go! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 53 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Both the 00z GFS and GEM peaked wind gusts between 50-60 mph around the Puget Sound area on either Friday night (GEM) or Saturday morning (GFS). Upwards of 70+ mph down the Strait on the backside of the low. Looking forward to the potential of a good windstorm later this week. Hope it materializes over the next couple days. The Strait is my pick for really bad winds assuming it tracks as shown. Usually Seattle needs a storm that comes up more from the SW to really get nailed. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 Day 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 Seems like we’re overdue for a big south windstorm. Mid November going into a strong Niña seems like as good a time as any. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 A little good ol’ fashion November cyclogenesis really hits the spot. 4 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, Jesse said: Seems like we’re overdue for a big south windstorm. Mid November going into a strong Niña seems like as good a time as any. We indeed are. I believe the last regional major PNW wind storm was December 2006 Hanukkah Eve wind storm. The last big one we had in PDX metro was December 11, 2014. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 Just now, Deweydog said: A little good ol’ fashion November cyclogenesis really hits the spot. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 Day 6 milder SWLY flow arriving Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: We indeed are. I believe the last regional major PNW wind storm was December 2006 Hanukkah Eve wind storm. The last big one we had in PDX metro was December 11, 2014. Thought the ECWF had the storm going more into Oregon than Washington? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 Euro has -13mb PDX-EUG with the low passing squarely over Seattle. Last Euro had the low up in the San Juans. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said: Euro has -13mb PDX-EUG with the low passing squarely over Seattle Then it would be more of a wind advisory storm over seattle vs the gfs i guess? Maybe im wrong since im still learning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 1 minute ago, seattleweatherguy said: Then it would be more of a wind advisory storm over seattle vs the gfs i guess? Maybe im wrong since im still learning. Barely breezy (if) the parent low were to pass directly over KSEA, similar to the eye of a hurricane. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: Euro has -13mb PDX-EUG with the low passing squarely over Seattle That's insane. Wow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Jbolin said: Barely breezy (if) the parent low were to pass directly over KSEA, similar to the eye of a hurricane. Pretty much. Low pressure doesn't cause wind. Pressure gradients do, and the Euro has one hell of a pressure gradient in the Willamette Valley, while in Seattle area not so much. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 Day 7 Now that's different. Trough offshore really diving southwestward. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said: Then it would be more of a wind advisory storm over seattle vs the gfs i guess? Maybe im wrong since im still learning. Peak wind gusts per the 00Z ECMWF... Friday at 4 p.m. and then 10 p.m. and Saturday morning at 4 a .m. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 Big Pineapples for Western OR after Day 5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 Wow! 231mph jet stream! HOLY PANCAKES Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Peak wind gusts per the 00Z ECMWF... Friday at 4 p.m. and then 10 p.m. and Saturday morning at 4 a .m. Thanks 20 to 29 mb would be about 30 to 35 mph per the ECWF? And while the gfs shows greater potential should it be discounted and lean towards the ecwf? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 We're about 90 hours out from this potential wind storm.... Give or take +/- 2 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 ECWF would be 50 to 60 m for Oregon not sure how that translates to wind gusts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 Day 8 Very different from previous runs. It's after Day 6 I take it with a grain of pepper. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 The question is which model to lean to or too early to tell? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said: The question is which model to lean to or too early to tell? In the short term Day 1-4 I go with the EURO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 Day 9 ... I gotta say the evolution Day 5.5 to 9 is weird. I doubt 12z looks like this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Peak wind gusts per the 00Z ECMWF... Friday at 4 p.m. and then 10 p.m. and Saturday morning at 4 a .m. Non event for most of western Wa. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 Day 9 strong/deepening 979mb low just off the Northern CA coast rocketing northward. Hmmm... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 Just now, DJ Droppin said: Day 9 strong/deepening 979mb low just off the Northern CA coast rocketing northward. Hmmm... Major BS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 Ahhh 6 hours later weakening Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 Just now, Jbolin said: Major BS or Captain. Yeah. Like I said, Day 5.5+ is wacky. Flat out wackiness. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals. Severe sprinkles Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: 00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals. Severe sprinkles I’m almost in the light blue! 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 9 hours ago, Jesse said: Still just 41 at PDX. Let’s see if they can do it. Although it’s not hard for me to picture a late evening high as things mix out a bit. Good call! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 Nothing exciting in the models yet, blah pattern. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 D**n Pdx never fails. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 ECMWF operation vs ensemble mean, hour 204. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: ECMWF operation vs ensemble mean, hour 204. Nice. Exactly why I said Day 5.5+ looked super wacky. It was. Thanks. 6z GFS in 2 hours 7 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 10, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 Operational EC looked like it might want to set up some shitt split flow in the late-mid/long range. 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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