FroYoBro Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said: Snohomish to Lane would include king county. Did the track change at all or inline with previous runs? You can always look for yourself on the latest GFS. Very easy to follow lows on this site! Just click the arrows to move the forecast time. Looks like the latest run puts the low at the nw tip of Washington and moves east from there. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112818&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: You can always look for yourself on the latest GFS. Very easy to follow lows on this site! Just click the arrows to move the forecast time. Looks like the latest run puts the low at the nw tip of Washington and moves east from there. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112818&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197 That site is way different from metrostar interesting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 977 low coming in from the west near southern vancouver islnd seems like the Euro and the GFS are at odds as usual. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 1 minute ago, seattleweatherguy said: 977 low coming in from the west near southern vancouver islnd seems like the Euro and the GFS are at odds as usual. Exact low strength and location will be tough for models. You will see things moving around right up until the event is happening probably. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 16 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: Like this frame at hour 162 looks pretty wild. If that wasn't a double barrel low it'd be better for wind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 Just now, Tyler Mode said: If that wasn't a double barrel low it'd be better for wind. Yeah, that one has been shown to wander and weaken around the pacific in most runs. Still an interesting pattern depending where it goes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 2 hours ago, Runtmc said: I think you should go back to requesting downvotes when you post. It got you more attention, which seems to be what you seek. You must be new. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 10, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Jesse said: Hope you are doing ok man. I've noticed you haven't really seemed yourself lately. I've definitely been feeling weird. Different in terms of feeling restless and more scared than usual I suppose. Looks like it's 44F out there with some steady rain. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 22 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: No more snowstorm for Puget Sound on the 12z GFS. I knew it was too good to be true!! This winter sucks!! PugetSoundsAndrew 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: I've definitely been feeling weird. Different in terms of feeling restless and more scared than usual I suppose. Looks like it's 44F out there with some steady rain. Sorry to hear that. I think it's been a rough year for many psychologically. And the last few weeks have been especially bad with the election and everything. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 10, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 Just now, Jesse said: Sorry to hear that. I think it's been a rough year for many psychologically. And the last few weeks have been especially bad with the election and everything. Once there is snow, I would love to get some snowshoes and do a proper hike in the snow up in the mtns. Or once we get a foot here at some point. 5 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 9 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Once there is snow, I would love to get some snowshoes and do a proper hike in the snow up in the mtns. Or once we get a foot here at some point. I’m still game to give you a lift up to the pass sometime. Let’s try to make that happen this winter. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 30 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: You must be new. If you’re just going to sit there and try to say the opposite of what everyone else seems to be excited about here it doesn’t do a lot for this place. Tim does the same thing but at least he puts an ungodly amount of effort into making it seem sincere and normal. You are taking the lazy route Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: 12z WRF GFS looks to be coming in a hair further south with the low than the 00z run. It's also 13mb weaker at 4PM Friday. Looks like we dodged a bullet! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 It’ll be interesting to see which way it goes. Either way someone’s getting a windstorm soon. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 13 minutes ago, Jesse said: If you’re just going to sit there and try to say the opposite of what everyone else seems to be excited about here it doesn’t do a lot for this place. Tim does the same thing but at least he puts an ungodly amount of effort into making it seem sincere and normal. You are taking the lazy route The models dont show any lowland snow here yet, so they look blah to me. Sorry you are so bothered by my honesty, not sorry. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 Just now, hawkstwelve said: Quite breezy. 17-18mb gradient between BLI and PDX. Western WA definitely flirting with non-event status getting on the north side of the low and much less wind. These things pretty much always trend north. You guys are in a good spot. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 Just now, Jesse said: These things pretty much always trend north. You guys are in a good spot. I was about to say the same thing actually. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 11 hours ago, hawkstwelve said: Not sure if it's been shared here already or not, but the ECMWF weeklies from last night had a signal for troughing over the Yukon/BC/Pacific NW areas off and on through Christmas. More consistent signaling for ridging in the East, at the very least. Chalk that up as a W. Here is the crayon interpretation of the weeklies, courtesy of Brett Anderson of Accuweather. Wet, and cold slowly heading south. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 Low of 41 this morning...went up to Crystal mountain last night they had about 3” of fresh snow at 4400’ last night. Went sledding and did a few snowboard tricks for the first time this winter. 2 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Low of 41 this morning...went up to Crystal mountain last night they had about 3” of fresh snow at 4400’ last night. Went sledding and did a few snowboard tricks for the first time this winter. I'm about to get new snow tires put on today so I can head up to the passes this week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, Jesse said: I'm about to get new snow tires put on today so I can head up to the passes this week. Nice! So glad we’re getting into mountain snow season. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 Just now, TacomaWaWx said: Nice! So glad we’re getting into mountain snow season. Hoping for a banner year. Off to a good start. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: You're right. My only pause is the Euro, which the 06z run brought the low in even further south than the 00z. We shall see. I'm hoping our lower chances for interesting weather comforts you. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said: No more snowstorm for Puget Sound on the 12z GFS. I knew it was too good to be true!! This winter sucks!! We didn't even get to appreciate the run cause most of us were asleep Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Most of the 12z GFS ensembles bring a 970-980mb low through Vancouver Island. BUT WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OREGON?!?!?!?! Massive blizzard with snow banks that are 12 feet high 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 Nice mix of weather on the 12z GFS. Active and variable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, Jesse said: Nice mix of weather on the 12z GFS. Active and variable. Pretty enjoyable looking month, at the moment. Am I wrong for thinking we've have pretty well neutered Novembers the last few years? 1 Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: But WHO is it active for? Is it active for everyone, or just a select few? Do the 5 million people in Western WA get active weather, or do the 3 million people in Western OR get it? Can you please think of everyone when you make these claims? It's imperative we all understand that what's good for one group is not good for another! Are you this annoying in person? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 The Puget Sound can keep their wind storm. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, jakerepp said: Pretty enjoyable looking month, at the moment. Am I wrong for thinking we've have pretty well neutered Novembers the last few years? You are correct. Seems like it’s been quite the stretch of dull ridging mixed with warm rain events for November lately. This is a nice change of pace. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: The Puget Sound can keep their wind storm. As a member of the Puget Sound weather chapter, we thank you for the offer but decline it and send it south to Oregon 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 Just now, SouthHillFrosty said: As a member of the Puget Sound weather chapter, we thank you for the offer but decline it and sent it south to Oregon I will accept it for the greater Portland area. Thank you. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 1 minute ago, FroYoBro said: I will accept it for the greater Portland area. Thank you. Do you have enough fridge space to store it until Friday? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Featured Comment Meatyorologist Posted November 10, 2020 Featured Comment Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 Downvote this post if you want a windstorm. 3 1 1 1 14 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said: As a member of the Puget Sound weather chapter, we thank you for the offer but decline it and sent it south to Oregon I would say odds are greater this ends up affecting western WA more than western OR but we will see maybe the euros right. One things for certain someone’s gonna get nailed. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: Do you have enough fridge space to store it until Friday? #2cold2storm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 9 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Downvote this post if you want a windstorm. This might be the most effective Jesse-downvote vaccine yet! 2 1 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: 976mb into Ocean Shores. Tracks inland almost directly to Seattle at 980mb. I’m gonna guess right now it’ll end up running right through the strait of Juan de Fuca this weekend. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 10, 2020 Report Share Posted November 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: This might be the most effective Jesse-downvote vaccine yet! It's the same effect as when you're about to empty the dishes, but then your roommate tells you to do it anyways. "Well now I don't want to!" 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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