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November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


TigerWoodsLibido

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2 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said:

Snohomish to Lane would include king county. Did the track change at all or inline with previous runs?

You can always look for yourself on the latest GFS. Very easy to follow lows on this site! Just click the arrows to move the forecast time. 

 

Looks like the latest run puts the low at the nw tip of Washington and moves east from there. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112818&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197

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2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

You can always look for yourself on the latest GFS. Very easy to follow lows on this site! Just click the arrows to move the forecast time. 

 

Looks like the latest run puts the low at the nw tip of Washington and moves east from there. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112818&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197

That site is way different from metrostar interesting

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1 minute ago, seattleweatherguy said:

977 low coming in from the west near southern vancouver islnd seems like the Euro and the GFS are at odds as usual.

Exact low strength and location will be tough for models. You will see things moving around right up until the event is happening probably. 

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1 hour ago, Jesse said:

Hope you are doing ok man. I've noticed you haven't really seemed yourself lately.

I've definitely been feeling weird. Different in terms of feeling restless and more scared than usual I suppose.

Looks like it's 44F out there with some steady rain.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I've definitely been feeling weird. Different in terms of feeling restless and more scared than usual I suppose.

Looks like it's 44F out there with some steady rain.

Sorry to hear that. I think it's been a rough year for many psychologically. And the last few weeks have been especially bad with the election and everything.

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Just now, Jesse said:

Sorry to hear that. I think it's been a rough year for many psychologically. And the last few weeks have been especially bad with the election and everything.

Once there is snow, I would love to get some snowshoes and do a proper hike in the snow up in the mtns. Or once we get a foot here at some point. ❄️

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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9 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Once there is snow, I would love to get some snowshoes and do a proper hike in the snow up in the mtns. Or once we get a foot here at some point. ❄️

I’m still game to give you a lift up to the pass sometime. Let’s try to make that happen this winter.

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30 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

You must be new.

If you’re just going to sit there and try to say the opposite of what everyone else seems to be excited about here it doesn’t do a lot for this place. Tim does the same thing but at least he puts an ungodly amount of effort into making it seem sincere and normal. You are taking the lazy route ;)

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13 minutes ago, Jesse said:

If you’re just going to sit there and try to say the opposite of what everyone else seems to be excited about here it doesn’t do a lot for this place. Tim does the same thing but at least he puts an ungodly amount of effort into making it seem sincere and normal. You are taking the lazy route ;)

The models dont show any lowland snow here yet, so they look blah to me.  Sorry you are so bothered by my honesty, not sorry.

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Just now, hawkstwelve said:

Quite breezy. 17-18mb gradient between BLI and PDX. 

Western WA definitely flirting with non-event status getting on the north side of the low and much less wind. 

slp.93.0000.gif

These things pretty much always trend north. You guys are in a good spot.

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11 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Not sure if it's been shared here already or not, but the ECMWF weeklies from last night had a signal for troughing over the Yukon/BC/Pacific NW areas off and on through Christmas.

More consistent signaling for ridging in the East, at the very least. Chalk that up as a W. 

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-z500_anom-1604880000-1606348800-1608854400-40.gif

Here is the crayon interpretation of the weeklies, courtesy of Brett Anderson of Accuweather.  Wet, and cold slowly heading south.

 

NOV10A.png?w=632

NOV10B.png?w=632

NOV10C.png?w=632

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Low of 41 this morning...went up to Crystal mountain last night they had about 3” of fresh snow at 4400’ last night. Went sledding and did a few snowboard tricks for the first time this winter. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Low of 41 this morning...went up to Crystal mountain last night they had about 3” of fresh snow at 4400’ last night. Went sledding and did a few snowboard tricks for the first time this winter. 

I'm about to get new snow tires put on today so I can head up to the passes this week.

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I'm about to get new snow tires put on today so I can head up to the passes this week.

Nice! So glad we’re getting into mountain snow season. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

No more snowstorm for Puget Sound on the 12z GFS.   😢

I knew it was too good to be true!! This winter sucks!!

We didn't even get to appreciate the run cause most of us were asleep😪

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3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Most of the 12z GFS ensembles bring a 970-980mb low through Vancouver Island.

BUT WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OREGON?!?!?!?!

1605355200-DjLaN4Tcdrg.png

Massive blizzard with snow banks that are 12 feet high

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5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Nice mix of weather on the 12z GFS. Active and variable.

Pretty enjoyable looking month, at the moment. 

Am I wrong for thinking we've have pretty well neutered Novembers the last few years?

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

But WHO is it active for? Is it active for everyone, or just a select few? Do the 5 million people in Western WA get active weather, or do the 3 million people in Western OR get it? 

Can you please think of everyone when you make these claims? It's imperative we all understand that what's good for one group is not good for another!

Are you this annoying in person?

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The Puget Sound can keep their wind storm. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Pretty enjoyable looking month, at the moment. 

Am I wrong for thinking we've have pretty well neutered Novembers the last few years?

You are correct. Seems like it’s been quite the stretch of dull ridging mixed with warm rain events for November lately. This is a nice change of pace.

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1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

As a member of the Puget Sound weather chapter, we thank you for the offer but decline it and sent it south to Oregon

I would say odds are greater this ends up affecting western WA more than western OR but we will see maybe the euros right. One things for certain someone’s gonna get nailed. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

976mb into Ocean Shores. Tracks inland almost directly to Seattle at 980mb.

1605315600-hgvPf6ZsFqY.png

I’m gonna guess right now it’ll end up running right through the strait of Juan de Fuca this weekend. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

This might be the most effective Jesse-downvote vaccine yet!

It's the same effect as when you're about to empty the dishes, but then your roommate tells you to do it anyways.

"Well now I don't want to!"

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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