Gradient Keeper Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Day 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 00z moves the low forward about 3-400 miles, and is a bit weaker. Could be a weaker landfall by a wide margin. Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Hmmm. Weaker, further south. Maybe it will rapidly intensify as it approaches the Washington Coast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Much further south and weaker. Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Just now, seattleweatherguy said: You mean northward but weaker hmmm sounds closer to a non event now.. Nope, I was correct. Forward and southward. Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Just now, Meatyorologist said: Much further south and weaker. Event over for western Washington Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Slightly different starting conditions, and.... voila! Minor windstorm and well south of the Sound. Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 NAM FTW!!! 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Just now, Meatyorologist said: Slightly different starting conditions, and.... voila! Minor windstorm and well south of the Sound. Too bad it can’t drive colder air down as it goes south! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Glad I didn’t get my hopes up... well maybe I did a little bit :) Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 It is a weaker low, but much better track for a localized/PDX, northern Willamette Valley wind storm. PDX-EUG at least -10mb. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Day 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Day 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, Deweydog said: NAM FTW!!! NAM wins? Does the GEM and EURO comes in stronger? You could cut the tension with a spoon in here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: It is a weaker low, but much better track for a localized/PDX, northern Willamette Valley wind storm. PDX-EUG at least -10mb. Yeah, not looking like a regional blow anyways at this point (need an offshore, SW to NNE trajectory for that). It'll likely be a localized high wind event relegated to within 50-75 miles of the track. 00z GFS actually shows a pretty potent event, quite rapid deepening as it heads ashore. This one looks like a potential analog, FWIW https://climate.washington.edu/stormking/November1958.html 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Don't make any judgements off this run. This is just demonstrating how finicky this whole situation is. Don't be surprised if this is a flukey run, or if the Euro sticks to its guns. There will be a lot of wobbling in potential storm strength, track placement, timing. We likely won't know anything for certain for another 36 hours as models handle this energy ejection from the trough off the east Asian coast. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Day 4.5 (Past 4 runs) Aleutian ridge quite a bit stronger, more amplified this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Day 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Far milder Day 5-7 this run. Unfortunately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 11, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Nice 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Day 6 Not a fan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Face value GFS looks quite good for a W. Valley special— we’ll see how models play around with strength. 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Day 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 7 Ugly Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 7 Looks like last night's Euro run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Day 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 00z GEM 970mb Tatoosh Island 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 11, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 So much for that Cascade snowpack. Probly gonna be well into December before openings if this verifies. 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Very rare to have a low of that strength take that track. Most likely will be a central to north Vancouver Island landfall . 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 I know call me crazy but I think the models might just be struggling with low placement and strength... 1 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: So much for that Cascade snowpack. Probly gonna be well into December before openings if this verifies. Still shows 3 feet of snow for the WA cascades before day 10. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Just one run, but not looking good. Also about time to start mentioning it’s been a pretty dry month so far in the willamette valley. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Weather watching would be boring if models were 100% right 5 days out. Still a lot of interesting possibilities. Still looks pretty windy for Oregon on this run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 11 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals I’m in the whi...Oh never mind. 2 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Just one run, but not looking good. Also about time to start mentioning it’s been a pretty dry month so far in the willamette valley. It’s a dark night on the forum...And outside!! Currently 31 frosty degrees here. 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Running out of time, guys. 2 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Long range GFS is different, but again we're talking about Day 10+ pure speculation. Some colder air slides back into eastern Washington. East wind pattern. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: Running out of time, guys. I know! And I don’t have the Christmas lights up yet and it’s really starting to stress me out! 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Canadian is vastly different after Day 5. Big ridge over us and merging with Alaskan block. What a drastic change. Outlier I'm thinking.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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