Jump to content

November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


TigerWoodsLibido

Recommended Posts

22 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I want to dial up a day like this again! 

5E7CF156-C3BB-40FC-B013-A11DAEB120C4.jpeg

Whoa! I've never used this function on Dark Sky. This is so cool! Now I'll never get to sleep tonight. Although its accuracy seems questionable as it says it would have been a couple degrees cooler here on the 13th than you which would be surprising if true.

  • Like 2

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Barring any major change tomorrow to put the storm (somehow) back in play, this thing is obviously a bust. But man, I would prefer a wind storm to break down 48 hours out versus 4-6 hours before, like the 2016 one.

If all day today we were getting the same 975mb with a shot of landfall from Vancouver South Tip to Ocean Shores, then we woke up tomorrow to the same 970-980, Central Coast to Vancouver Isl. By then, the news stations would have needed to start the hype train, then to have THAT bust Thursday night into Friday, then that would have been truly horrendous. 

I MUCH prefer models busting a few days before the event, so it is just those of us who know how forecasting works that get disappointed. We get bummed, but we also understand how models work and how difficult these things are to forecast. I would much rather have that, versus Aunt Karen who doubled up her batteries and got bottled water and firewood, and now you have to try and explain that the news stations are not in cahoots with the NWS to hustle purposefully bad weather forecasts just so Duracell and Duralog can make more money.
Sadly I changed the name to Aunt Karen to save their identity, but these are conversations I have ALL the time with weather novices that think a busted event is a conspiracy. (Shocking!)

So, a 48 hour or more notice is fine by me!

  • Like 4
  • Excited 1

--------------------

Sean Nyberg

   IG: @SeanNyberg

   X:   @SeanNyberg

   Facebook: Sean Nyberg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 8 YUCK

500h_anom.na.png

I’ve seen worse in January 2018,19,20...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

I dunno about these models. Looking at IR Loop there is a definite nice looking wave with tight circulation just west of the date line. Call me skeptical.

11-11-20 10 PM IR Imagery.png

Absolutely. Initialization has been terrible the last 36 hours. Definitely could wobble back.

  • Like 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Still shows some decent winds for the south valley on Friday even with it being a boring open wave.

  • Windy 2

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Down to 5 at Burns. 

  • Snow 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

10:30 PM WV/IR Imagery

125214027_200677311565482_57552265534642125194336_200677358232144_77919144785522

image.thumb.png.a9b3345496704512af102b18d5e89cfc.png

Did some investigating, and in all fairness, the ECMWF initialization wasn't *that* terrible. Could be undervaluing intensification (a common bias by nearly all models this year, especially with regard to tropical convection), which in an exponential intensification situation like this could lead to a stronger storm than modeled.

But the model consensus for a weaker storm is pretty damning for its future, regardless of minor initialization errors.

  • Like 3

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And Springfield has ourselves freeze number 12. Did not think we would get there before midnight so we will be ticking off number 13 in just a little bit. Should have a nice negative departure.

  • Excited 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

EC Ensemble

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_strea

  • Thanks 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

It's kind of hard to tell but there are some 980-985mb lows in there tracking through WA (and off the coast still) on the 00z EPS.

Still a very slight chance this thing improves a hair down the home stretch. Maybe 40-50 mph instead of 30-40.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nw-mslp_with_low_locs-5268800.png

Very boom-or-bust situation. Everyone's hopped off the train and gone home, but I'm at least waiting at the station while it's stopped, just in case this isn't its final destination.

Enough with the dumb metaphors

  • Windy 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Very boom-or-bust situation. Everyone's hopped off the train and gone home, but I'm at least waiting at the station while it's stopped, just in case this isn't its final destination.

Enough with the dumb metaphors

It's unrealistic to expect a Columbus Day event but also just as foolish to think we aren't in the proverbial crosshairs "somewhere".

Developing lows with strengths sub 975mb are few and far between south of the border and it's best to follow climatology at this juncture. Is a strong wind event completely out of the cards (no) but a destructive regionwide event has definitely been minimized. 

I like Rob's approach, wait for the 12Z and see

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not seeing much to warrant a night shift so I may turn in early also. Maybe we'll get a surprise in the morning runs.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Classes have me up late again, so I thought I'd stop by and post. ICON is about 6-8mb stronger and has a landfall further north, near the sweetspot for winds in Seattle. Only gets muddled by its formation as a dual-low complex; a very detailed and complicated mesoscale setup that is nearly impossible to forecast more than a day out.

12z model suite in a few hours. The next 24 hours will really be the deciding factors on whether this will be a non-event or a significant storm. The storm is ejecting right now so this is a critical time in its early development. With this kind of jet in place, who knows what could happen.

On a side note, the 06z suite is all screwy. Not showing up on any websites right now, except for the NAM, which is no different than its previous run. See y'all in the morning.

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_12.png

  • Like 2

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Gfs broke 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

06z Euro also increased wind gusts a bit, especially for Oregon.

Had a bit of a double barrel low look to it as well, with one moving in around the tip of the Olympic Peninsula and another into the Columbia. 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-gust_swath_mph-5312000-1.png

Probably still high enough to knock out the power at my place. 

  • Like 1
  • Excited 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z GFS continues to look a bit underwhelming but, again, it is an improvement by 5-10 mph in some spots over the 00z, mainly in Oregon. 

Seems there is a slight increase of wind gust speeds across most major model suites this morning. 

Take what we can get at this point. 

gfs-deterministic-washington-gust_swath_mph-5301200.png

I’m surprised that the GFS shows me getting 50 mph gusts. May be a decently stormy day even without a strong compact low.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Popular Contributors

  • Activity Stream

    1. 372

      March 2024 Observations and Discussion

    2. 5703

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    3. 5703

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    4. 638

      Middle East Conflict of 2023

    5. 638

      Middle East Conflict of 2023

×
×
  • Create New...