Timmy Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 1 minute ago, FroYoBro said: I’m surprised that the GFS shows me getting 50 mph gusts. May be a decently stormy day even without a strong compact low. It’s a pretty low res map. We both know the terrain of the area will produce some very windy areas and some much less so. I know out where I live I’ll consistently see 20-30mph less wind than pdx in events like this due to all the hills nearby. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 Wouldn’t be surprised if we ended up with borderline advisory winds here in Tacoma still. Gfs looks pretty stormy through day 7...quite a bit of rain and breezy conditions I still am a fan of the latest runs even without the big windstorm. 1 1 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 10 minutes ago, Timmy said: It’s a pretty low res map. We both know the terrain of the area will produce some very windy areas and some much less so. I know out where I live I’ll consistently see 20-30mph less wind than pdx in events like this due to all the hills nearby. Probably best to hide inside under a blanket all day regardless. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 Just now, Jesse said: Probably best to hide inside under a blanket all day regardless. Jesse woke up! Currently 38 degrees and cloudy. Took the dogs for a walk this lovely morning. 3 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, MossMan said: Jesse woke up! Downvotes incoming… 1 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, MossMan said: Jesse woke up! Currently 38 degrees and cloudy. Took the dogs for a walk this lovely morning. You must have missed the sunrise pic a few hours ago. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 Surprised that 19th Century analog didn't generate more buzz. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 00z CFS stuck at hour 408 on pivotal. Looks chilly at that point. 1 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, Jesse said: You must have missed the sunrise pic a few hours ago. I thought that was a Tyler pic! Didn’t look at the name. 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Surprised that 19th Century analog didn't generate more buzz. What would that mean for the PNW from where I see it looks cooler than normal but not colder ala dark blue? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 This is so good to see! Northern Oregon Cascades- Including the city of Santiam Pass 426 AM PST Thu Nov 12 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM PST FRIDAY ABOVE 4000 FEET... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected above 4000 feet. Total snow accumulations of 15 to 30 inches. Ridgetop winds could gust as high as 60 mph, causing blowing and drifting of snow. * WHERE...Northern Oregon Cascades. * WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 8 PM PST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel across the Cascade passes, and up to the ski resort elevations, will be very difficult at times. Gusty winds and heavy snow may bring down tree branches. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow levels generally 3500 to 4500 feet, with heaviest snow accumulations at 4500 feet elevation and above. 5 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said: What would that mean for the PNW from where I see it looks cooler than normal but not colder ala dark blue? From what I can tell that winter had a pretty chilly February/March. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 Weagle's early morning forecast discussion he still is watching things closely. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 431 AM PST Thu Nov 12 2020 Models have changed considerably from what was suggested by 12z Wednesday's model suite, with the 00z GFS/ECMWF and 06z NAM now all backing off from the idea of a strong surface low near the Washington coast. The most likely reason for this appears to be failure of the favorable left exit region to arrive in time to combine with the best baroclinicity off the PacNW coast. As such, we will be canceling the High Wind Watch for all but Oregon's Central Coast and the adjacent Coast Range zone. The 00z/06z NAM, as well as the 00z GFS/ECMWF, suggest the best opportunity for a strong coastal jet to form will be Lincoln City southward, and model boundary layer winds suggest a marginal wind event at best even for Oregon's Central Coast. We will be adjusting the timing of said High Wind Watch a bit earlier, to coincide with the frontal passage later tonight into Friday morning. All this said, we will need to watch closely the incoming waves of low pressure along the front, as there is plenty of potential for rapid development should the right ingredients come together at the right time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: From what I can tell that winter had a pretty chilly February/March. This is what I found. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 Front remaining stalled at least for the first half of Friday before moving east late in the day. Models and ensembles for the most part are in good agreement that the parent low with the system, which looked for awhile to have the potential to produce high winds, is now a low in the 990s millibar range moving inland into Southern British Columbia Friday afternoon. This will give the area some breezy to windy conditions in the afternoon. Ensembles have a vast majority of the solutions producing borderline wind advisory conditions in the afternoon ( sustained winds at least 30 mph and gusts at least 45 mph ) or less. Snow levels remaining below the pass levels with precipitation rates easing in the afternoon. Will keep the winter storm warning for the Cascades into late morning and keep the current watch intact for the afternoon hours. Highs Friday near 50. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 Storm moved north? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, van city said: This is what I found. PDX had 10" of snow that February. I believe the previous winter was much more epic. I think we would be pretty happy with a 1893-94 redux. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 If the GFS verifies through day 7 we should be over 5” of rain on the month by this time next week. Currently at 1.93” on the month. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 Bad morning for that driver! Luckily he or she is okay. 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 Seattle had 19 inches in the 1893/1894 winter. That is with records beginning on 1/1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, MossMan said: Bad morning for that driver! Luckily he or she is okay. Just a couple of miles from me. We were in the 20's this morning, wondering if it was black ice. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 12z ECMWF Day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 19 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Just a couple of miles from me. We were in the 20's this morning, wondering if it was black ice. Sounded like that might have been the case. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 Day 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 What does the Euro say about the storm? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 Day 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said: What does the Euro say about the storm? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: so pretty much nothing for western wa though mid 30 mph gusts aint bad still has knocked out my power in the past Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 12 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Looks like a wind advisory coming for the south sound atleast. If not it’ll be pretty close to the criteria for one. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 https://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/137-years-ago-monday-seattle-weathered-the-great-storm-king I am trying to have this type of winter. Already started the snow dance rituals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 12, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 Man WB really needs to work on their servers. They keep going down at the worst times, funny story...when people are looking at the model data live! Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 Had to step out for a bit. Day 4-7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 This run is much better than previous with the trough hanging over us and no big ridge. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 INSANELY wet! 7 Day Rainfall totals 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 A lot can and probably will change with how the Aleutian ridge, then Alaskan ridge are handled too as that is only now east of Japan and thus also with the trough offshore. We would see those differences roughly after Day 3.5 to 4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 Tacoma/Seattle should definitely get an advisory out of this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 Day 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 12z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals. I'd be happy with this. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 MUCH better EURO run. C'MON!!!! Next up.... 18z NAM in 35 minutes 18z GFS in 2 hours 27 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post TT-SEA Posted November 12, 2020 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 Zoom in on the snow... 7 2 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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