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November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


TigerWoodsLibido

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1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

I’m surprised that the GFS shows me getting 50 mph gusts. May be a decently stormy day even without a strong compact low.

It’s a pretty low res map. We both know the terrain of the area will produce some very windy areas and some much less so.  I know out where I live I’ll consistently see 20-30mph less wind than pdx in events like this due to all the hills nearby. 

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Wouldn’t be surprised if we ended up with borderline advisory winds here in Tacoma still. Gfs looks pretty stormy through day 7...quite a bit of rain and breezy conditions I still am a fan of the latest runs even without the big windstorm. 

D61F6BDD-CB06-4FE6-9BC9-EAE417CCC8A4.jpeg

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Timmy said:

It’s a pretty low res map. We both know the terrain of the area will produce some very windy areas and some much less so.  I know out where I live I’ll consistently see 20-30mph less wind than pdx in events like this due to all the hills nearby. 

Probably best to hide inside under a blanket all day regardless.

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Just now, Jesse said:

Probably best to hide inside under a blanket all day regardless.

Jesse woke up! 
Currently 38 degrees and cloudy. Took the dogs for a walk this lovely morning. 

0D75741F-A3C4-42E4-8641-5D48625F07A1.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Surprised that 19th Century analog didn't generate more buzz.

  • Snow 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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00z CFS stuck at hour 408 on pivotal. Looks chilly at that point.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

You must have missed the sunrise pic a few hours ago.

I thought that was a Tyler pic! Didn’t look at the name. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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This is so good to see!

Northern Oregon Cascades-
Including the city of Santiam Pass
426 AM PST Thu Nov 12 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM
PST FRIDAY ABOVE 4000 FEET...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected above 4000 feet. Total snow
  accumulations of 15 to 30 inches. Ridgetop winds could gust as
  high as 60 mph, causing blowing and drifting of snow.

* WHERE...Northern Oregon Cascades.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 8 PM PST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel across the Cascade passes, and up to the ski
  resort elevations, will be very difficult at times. Gusty winds
  and heavy snow may bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow levels generally 3500 to 4500 feet,
  with heaviest snow accumulations at 4500 feet elevation and
  above.
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said:

What would that mean for the PNW from where I see it looks cooler than normal but not colder ala dark blue?

From what I can tell that winter had a pretty chilly February/March.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Weagle's early morning forecast discussion he still is watching things closely.
 
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
431 AM PST Thu Nov 12 2020
 
Models have changed considerably from what was suggested by 12z Wednesday's model suite, with the 00z GFS/ECMWF and 06z NAM now all backing off from the idea of a strong surface low near the Washington coast. The most likely reason for this appears to be failure of the favorable left exit region to arrive in time to combine with the best baroclinicity off the PacNW coast. As such, we will be canceling the High Wind Watch for all but Oregon's Central Coast and the adjacent Coast Range zone. The 00z/06z NAM, as well as the 00z GFS/ECMWF, suggest the best opportunity for a strong coastal jet to form will be Lincoln City southward, and model boundary layer winds suggest a marginal wind event at best even for Oregon's Central Coast. We will be adjusting the timing of said High Wind Watch a bit earlier, to coincide with the frontal passage later tonight into Friday morning. All this said, we will need to watch closely the incoming waves of low pressure along the front, as there is plenty of potential for rapid development should the right ingredients come together at the right time.
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Front remaining stalled at least for the first half of Friday
before moving east late in the day. Models and ensembles for the
most part are in good agreement that the parent low with the
system, which looked for awhile to have the potential to produce
high winds, is now a low in the 990s millibar range moving inland
into Southern British Columbia Friday afternoon. This will give
the area some breezy to windy conditions in the afternoon.
Ensembles have a vast majority of the solutions producing
borderline wind advisory conditions in the afternoon ( sustained
winds at least 30 mph and gusts at least 45 mph ) or less. Snow
levels remaining below the pass levels with precipitation rates
easing in the afternoon. Will keep the winter storm warning for
the Cascades into late morning and keep the current watch intact
for the afternoon hours. Highs Friday near 50.

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7 minutes ago, van city said:

This is what I found.

Screenshot_20201112-090716_Chrome.jpg

PDX had 10" of snow that February. I believe the previous winter was much more epic. I think we would be pretty happy with a 1893-94 redux. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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19 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Just a couple of miles from me.  We were in the 20's this morning, wondering if it was black ice.

Sounded like that might have been the case. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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12 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

image.thumb.png.b34ba04f087649df4ea4a770eae36bf6.png

Looks like a wind advisory coming for the south sound atleast. If not it’ll be pretty close to the criteria for one. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Man WB really needs to work on their servers. They keep going down at the worst times, funny story...when people are looking at the model data live!

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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