MossMan Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: At the very least it'll keep us occupied for a few days. Better than the endless bore many of our falls and winters provide. So true!! Last November and December were just painful!! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 15 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Some 100 mph winds right off the coast thanks to that 957mb low. Nice low but it shows about 20 to 25 for the seattle metro area but does it turn northward or go south? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, MossMan said: So true!! Last November and December were just painful!! All of last winter was painful for everybody south of Seattle. I got half an inch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said: Nice low but it shows about 20 to 25 for the seattle metro area but does it turn northward or go south? It guts itself northward, sparing the region except maybe the coast of damaging winds. Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: All of last winter was painful for everybody south of Seattle. I got half an inch Hell, here in North Seattle it was hardy anything to bat an eye at. Just an inch here that pretty evenly melted throughout the day. Then the disappointment that was the transition back as models right before the warm front switched to a very snowy stinger solution, only for it to bust entirely. But yeah, it was pretty ghastly south of the city as opportunity after opportunity got flushed down the toilet. At least we had something here. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Hell, here in North Seattle it was hardy anything to bat an eye at. Just an inch here that pretty evenly melted throughout the day. Then the disappointment that was the transition back as models right before the warm front switched to a very snowy stinger solution, only for it to bust entirely. But yeah, it was pretty ghastly south of the city as opportunity after opportunity got flushed down the toilet. At least we had something here. This was the forecast just six hours before the fizzled snowstorm. Imagine this forecast busting... I couldn't! (huge sarcasm here) WAA advection was wayyy undermodeled (a rarity -- usually the opposite!), and moisture was severely lacking. Ended up with a light snowfall at first, then half an hour later spits of mixed precipitation. No accumulation. Dreadful. Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said: This was the forecast just six hours before the fizzled snowstorm. Imagine this forecast busting... I couldn't! (huge sarcasm here) WAA advection was wayyy undermodeled (a rarity -- usually the opposite!), and moisture was severely lacking. Ended up with a light snowfall at first, then half an hour later spits of mixed precipitation. No accumulation. Dreadful. Wow. I did not realize how big of a bust that was Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 14 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: It guts itself northward, sparing the region except maybe the coast of damaging winds. Then I guess we miss out again. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: This was the forecast just six hours before the fizzled snowstorm. Imagine this forecast busting... I couldn't! (huge sarcasm here) WAA advection was wayyy undermodeled (a rarity -- usually the opposite!), and moisture was severely lacking. Ended up with a light snowfall at first, then half an hour later spits of mixed precipitation. No accumulation. Dreadful. That period was pretty great here in Everett. Over 10" in 6 days from 4 separate storms and basically no melting. I remember being literally 10 miles North of the rain/snow line during a couple of them though and the Arctic front got hung up around Shoreline for like 48 hours straight. That was a weird setup. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Wow. I did not realize how big of a bust that was Wish I could have shared the wealth! (Well only if it didn’t effect my accumulations haha) This was my progression! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 It snowed here in March. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, Deweydog said: It snowed here in March. Yes, yes it did. But will it again next March? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, Jbolin said: Yes, yes it did. But will it again next March? Only the EPS knows for sure. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 Just now, Deweydog said: Only the EPS knows for sure. I've "heard" that statistically, the odds of spring snow in a La Nina year are weighted a bit more in one's favor? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 The 18z GFS was way different than the 12z EURO. Wow. Nice little run. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtep Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 I remember seeing flakes on April 1st this year which was pretty awesome. I was at about 800' on Squalicum mountain talking to my doctor on the phone. Good ol early pandemic days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, Jbolin said: I've "heard" that statistically, the odds of spring snow in a La Nina year are weighted a bit more in one's favor? A somewhat cool spring should be a slam dunk. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 1 minute ago, mtep said: I remember seeing flakes on April 1st this year which was pretty awesome. I was at about 800' on Squalicum mountain talking to my doctor on the phone. Good ol early pandemic days. Do we have a Dead Head in or midst now? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakeinthevalley Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 I predict a Freezing Spray Warning on the Willamette River before this winter is over.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: A somewhat cool spring should be a slam dunk. I'd buy that for a dollar! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 Just now, jakeinthevalley said: I predict a Freezing Spray Warning on the Willamette River before this winter is over.... I wish I could see your face when you lose that bet 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, Jbolin said: I wish I could see your face when you lose that bet I imagine something like that. 2 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakeinthevalley Posted November 12, 2020 Report Share Posted November 12, 2020 11 minutes ago, Deweydog said: I imagine something like that. Other than the chest hair, you nailed it 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtep Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 31 minutes ago, Jbolin said: Do we have a Dead Head in or midst now? Sure do! Nothing like throwing on a hot show while a good storm comes in 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 11 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: 18z Euro max wind gusts. Puget Sound/South Sound peaks between 10PM-4AM, Oregon between 1AM-6AM. Wow so 40 to 45 mph gusts tonight for the Puget sound based on this model? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 11 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: 18z Euro max wind gusts. Puget Sound/South Sound peaks between 10PM-4AM, Oregon between 1AM-6AM. pdx nws says this map is nuts. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 17 minutes ago, Timmy said: pdx nws says this map is nuts. I saw that as well. With that energetic of a jet, I think they are being a bit conservative. Maybe we'll have the rare reverse busto this time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 3 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said: I remember the AR event last December that was shown to be going into the Portland area for several days then ended up going north into the Seattle area. That was the biggest AR event I can remember with 4” of rain in a little less than 24 hours. That nice red line was center right over us !!! Just over 4 inches here as well. Radar shot during part of the glorious AR December 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 Getting windy and wetty 4 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, MossMan said: Getting windy and wetty Hasn’t hit here yet but Aldergrove radar says “Soon!” 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 54 minutes ago, mtep said: Sure do! Nothing like throwing on a hot show while a good storm comes in Loved going to their shows. They hit Atlanta in the spring when I was in high school, and never failed we usually had our first really nice warm spring days when they were in town. As soon as the final bell rang me and my buddy were out the door and hauling a** downtown to hang out. Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtep Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 20 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said: Loved going to their shows. They hit Atlanta in the spring when I was in high school, and never failed we usually had our first really nice warm spring days when they were in town. As soon as the final bell rang me and my buddy were out the door and hauling a** downtown to hang out. Do you remember what year that would've been? Sounds like a real good time. The Atlanta shows from May 77 are some of my favorites. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 48/38 today. Started raining a bit ago have picked up 0.02” this evening so far. Looks like the steadier rainfall is almost here. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 Pretty good news in the models for the most part today. The general -PNA theme continues indefinitely with the updated ECMWF weeklies showing a strong signal for blocking over the GOA as we get toward Dec 20. Pretty surprising to see any kind of a robust anomaly signal that far out. If it's really onto something we could be looking at cold weather around Christmas time. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 1 hour ago, Jginmartini said: That nice red line was center right over us !!! Just over 4 inches here as well. Radar shot during part of the glorious AR December 2019 The rain was so heavy and persistent it was crazy. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 Interested to see who will get hit by the next big AR event. 3 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 Hmmm... Water vapor imagery now shows really good development with a nice dry slot emerging. This low looks as if it may strengthen quickly with possible rapid cyclogenesis as it moves towards the Washington Coast. Viewing the loop it is very evident with that familiar 'comma' structure showing. Here we go!!!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Hmmm... Water vapor imagery now shows really good development with a nice dry slot emerging. This low looks as if it may strengthen quickly with possible rapid cyclogenesis as it moves towards the Washington Coast. Viewing the loop it is very evident with that familiar 'comma' structure showing. Here we go!!!! Given how bad the models were wouldn’t surprise me if it snuck up on us and over performed. When was the last time something like that happened? 1 2 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said: Given how bad the models were wouldn’t surprise me if it snuck up on us and over performed. When was the last time something like that happened? Hmmm, I seem to remember December 11, 2014 and the South Valley Surprise February 7th, 2002 with a low bombing rapidly near the Coast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 Just now, DJ Droppin said: Hmmm, I seem to remember December 11, 2014 and the South Valley Surprise February 7th, 2002 with a low bombing rapidly near the Coast. I think I remember tiger talking about the “south valley surprise” wind event a couple times. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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