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November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


TigerWoodsLibido

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6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

At the very least it'll keep us occupied for a few days. Better than the endless bore many of our falls and winters provide.

So true!! Last November and December were just painful!! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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2 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said:

Nice low but it shows about 20 to 25 for the seattle metro area but does it turn northward or go south?

It guts itself northward, sparing the region except maybe the coast of damaging winds.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

All of last winter was painful for everybody south of Seattle. I got half an inch

Hell, here in North Seattle it was hardy anything to bat an eye at. Just an inch here that pretty evenly melted throughout the day. Then the disappointment that was the transition back as models right before the warm front switched to a very snowy stinger solution, only for it to bust entirely.

But yeah, it was pretty ghastly south of the city as opportunity after opportunity got flushed down the toilet. At least we had something here.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Hell, here in North Seattle it was hardy anything to bat an eye at. Just an inch here that pretty evenly melted throughout the day. Then the disappointment that was the transition back as models right before the warm front switched to a very snowy stinger solution, only for it to bust entirely.

But yeah, it was pretty ghastly south of the city as opportunity after opportunity got flushed down the toilet. At least we had something here.

Image

This was the forecast just six hours before the fizzled snowstorm. Imagine this forecast busting... I couldn't! (huge sarcasm here)

WAA advection was wayyy undermodeled (a rarity -- usually the opposite!), and moisture was severely lacking. Ended up with a light snowfall at first, then half an hour later spits of mixed precipitation. No accumulation. Dreadful.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Image

This was the forecast just six hours before the fizzled snowstorm. Imagine this forecast busting... I couldn't! (huge sarcasm here)

WAA advection was wayyy undermodeled (a rarity -- usually the opposite!), and moisture was severely lacking. Ended up with a light snowfall at first, then half an hour later spits of mixed precipitation. No accumulation. Dreadful.

Wow. I did not realize how big of a bust that was

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6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Image

This was the forecast just six hours before the fizzled snowstorm. Imagine this forecast busting... I couldn't! (huge sarcasm here)

WAA advection was wayyy undermodeled (a rarity -- usually the opposite!), and moisture was severely lacking. Ended up with a light snowfall at first, then half an hour later spits of mixed precipitation. No accumulation. Dreadful.

That period was pretty great here in Everett. Over 10" in 6 days from 4  separate storms and basically no melting. I remember being literally 10 miles North of the rain/snow line during a couple of them though and the Arctic front got hung up around Shoreline for like 48 hours straight. That was a weird setup.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Wow. I did not realize how big of a bust that was

Wish I could have shared the wealth! (Well only if it didn’t effect my accumulations haha) This was my progression! 

BF1FBED0-DBB0-45A6-A46C-43DA4F9F68D0.jpeg

98B22123-1384-4C11-9A88-70B68A9CBD33.jpeg

EC359FBD-5AC0-44BE-BC68-3852086FC0C2.jpeg

E04CB496-49F0-479F-BC28-9DE1832B616A.jpeg

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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The 18z GFS was way different than the 12z EURO. Wow. Nice little run. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I remember the AR event last December that was shown to be going into the Portland area for several days then ended up going north into the Seattle area. That was the biggest AR event I can remember with 4” of rain in a little less than 24 hours. 

That nice red line was center right over us !!! Just over 4 inches here as well. 

Radar shot during part of the glorious AR December 2019

1E9DAAE2-9405-4157-8BE2-F4CEC4EAB2FB.png

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54 minutes ago, mtep said:

Sure do! Nothing like throwing on a hot show while a good storm comes in

Loved going to their shows.  They hit Atlanta in the spring when I was in high school, and never failed we usually had our first really nice warm spring days when they were in town.  As soon as the final bell rang me and my buddy were out the door and hauling a** downtown to hang out.

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20 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Loved going to their shows.  They hit Atlanta in the spring when I was in high school, and never failed we usually had our first really nice warm spring days when they were in town.  As soon as the final bell rang me and my buddy were out the door and hauling a** downtown to hang out.

Do you remember what year that would've been? Sounds like a real good time. The Atlanta shows from May 77 are some of my favorites.

 

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Pretty good news in the models for the most part today.  The general -PNA theme continues indefinitely with the updated ECMWF weeklies showing a strong signal for blocking over the GOA as we get toward Dec 20.  Pretty surprising to see any kind of a robust anomaly signal that far out.  If it's really onto something we could be looking at cold weather around Christmas time.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, Jginmartini said:

That nice red line was center right over us !!! Just over 4 inches here as well. 

Radar shot during part of the glorious AR December 2019

1E9DAAE2-9405-4157-8BE2-F4CEC4EAB2FB.png

The rain was so heavy and persistent it was crazy. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Hmmm... Water vapor imagery now shows really good development with a nice dry slot emerging. This low looks as if it may strengthen quickly with possible rapid cyclogenesis as it moves towards the Washington Coast. Viewing the loop it is very evident with that familiar 'comma' structure showing. Here we go!!!!

11-12-20 530 PM WV.png

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2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Hmmm... Water vapor imagery now shows really good development with a nice dry slot emerging. This low looks as if it may strengthen quickly with possible rapid cyclogenesis as it moves towards the Washington Coast. Viewing the loop it is very evident with that familiar 'comma' structure showing. Here we go!!!!

11-12-20 530 PM WV.png

Given how bad the models were wouldn’t surprise me if it snuck up on us and over performed. When was the last time something like that happened? 

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  • Windy 2

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Given how bad the models were wouldn’t surprise me if it snuck up on us and over performed. When was the last time something like that happened? 

Hmmm, I seem to remember December 11, 2014 and the South Valley Surprise February 7th, 2002 with a low bombing rapidly near the Coast.

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Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Hmmm, I seem to remember December 11, 2014 and the South Valley Surprise February 7th, 2002 with a low bombing rapidly near the Coast.

I think I remember tiger talking about the “south valley surprise” wind event a couple times. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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