rsktkr Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 Heavy rain here in McMinnville but that's about it. I woke to gusty winds during the night but nothing all that alarming. Haven't checked peak gusts or total rainfall from this system yet but it feels like a typical November event to me. Hopefully Tuesdays storm delivers something more interesting. At least I won't have any heavy storm damage to reckon with today. Onward! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 6 inches at least of snow here and still snowing. The UW high resolution models were more accurate than the National Weather Service forecasts. 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 A few outages down south in PDX country Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 13, 2020 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 15 3 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 Passes still getting hit hard with snow not to often you see the pass report say heavy snow near white out conditions. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 The wind was fairly underwhelming, but I did have a couple of decent gusts around 40 mph early this morning. The heavy rain was pretty probably more impressive. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 Even one of the lowest elevation passes Snoqualmie pass has 28” from the last few days with another 18” expected by tomorrow morning and more snow forecasted almost every day next week. One of the best starts to the season in a long time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 56 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: 6 inches at least of snow here and still snowing. The UW high resolution models were more accurate than the National Weather Service forecasts. Just went out to measure. 9 inches, still snowing. Big victory for the WRF and the UW high resolution ensembles and the high resolution NAM. Big loss for the NWS and their automated forecasts, which have us less than 3 inches. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 Pretty much a non event down here. Some decent rain, but not a ton of wind. It appears the snow levels are about up to pass level around here, which isn't a good sign. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 NAM entertains the possibility of another low striking the region tomorrow afternoon. Would likely contain another bout of localized stronger winds and a period of heavier rainfall and mountain snow. 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 1 minute ago, dolt said: Pretty much a non event down here. Some decent rain, but not a ton of wind. It appears the snow levels are about up to pass level around here, which isn't a good sign. Why is that not a good sign? We're in the warm sector, the fact that they are only up to pass level is a good thing if you want to see the mountains do well today. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 41 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 Willamette Pass and Santiam Pass are doing great this morning, considering we are in the “warm” part of the system. 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 48 and moderate rain this morning. Looks like the back edge of the initial batch is about through. Picked up over .75” since midnight with moderate to heavy rain most the night. Wind wasn’t very noticeable here. Might have been some gusts 30-35mph. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, Jesse said: Why is that not a good sign? We're in the warm sector, the fact that they are only up to pass level is a good thing if you want to see the mountains do well today. When i checked the models/forecast yesterday, it seemed like the passes would be good throughout the day. It's not even 8am and the snow levels are at about 5000' already. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 19 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Just went out to measure. 9 inches, still snowing. Big victory for the WRF and the UW high resolution ensembles and the high resolution NAM. Big loss for the NWS and their automated forecasts, which have us less than 3 inches. Leavenworth will be a winter wonderland this weekend. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 Just now, dolt said: When i checked the models/forecast yesterday, it seemed like the passes would be good throughout the day. It's not even 8am and the snow levels are at about 5000' already. That's because right now they are in the warm sector of the storm. The passes will cool throughout the day. 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, dolt said: When i checked the models/forecast yesterday, it seemed like the passes would be good throughout the day. It's not even 8am and the snow levels are at about 5000' already. The warmest part of the system is right now, they will be dropping later on. It looks like the snow level is well below 5,000' judging by pass cams. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Jesse said: Willamette Pass and Santiam Pass are doing great this morning, considering we are in the “warm” part of the system. Not looking good on the 26 pass though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 Just now, Jesse said: The warmest part of the system is right now, they will be dropping later on. It looks like the snow level is well below 5,000' judging by pass cams. I hope so. It would be a shame to have all of this moisture go to waste. The ski areas could really use a good season this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 Wind didn’t end up being enough to wake me up but the rain did. Local stations reported gusts in the low 30s nothing crazy. Storms next week will probably be more significant. Have picked up 0.54” since midnight to hit 2.68” for the month. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 14 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: NAM entertains the possibility of another low striking the region tomorrow afternoon. Would likely contain another bout of localized stronger winds and a period of heavier rainfall and mountain snow. That low is in better position but it is also weaker than the one going though the region today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, dolt said: I hope so. It would be a shame to have all of this moisture go to waste. The ski areas could really use a good season this year. Moisture never goes to waste. It recharges the water table whether or not it falls as snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, dolt said: Not looking good on the 26 pass though. That’s the lowest pass over the entire Oregon cascades. And the snow level is probably just a little above it. Still easily at ski area elevation. The higher passes of 26 look a little better. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 Fwiw, looks like your windstorm will arrive here Sunday. Let’s see what it’s made of. Boundary layer winds look decent. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 959 mb low west of Oregon on the 12z GFS. Crazy looking. Imagine if it trends just a bit more east... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 Rain shadow finally falling apart up here. Only about 0.1" in the bucket in the last 24 hours. Looks like the Mt. Baker weather station is down currently. Would love to know how much snow they got overnight. Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 Just now, FroYoBro said: 959 mb low west of Oregon on the 12z GFS. Crazy looking. Imagine if it trends just a bit more east... Or if it moved North and east in the sweet spot giving the puget sound a huge windstorm! It wont do either but nice to dream. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 15 minutes ago, Phil said: Fwiw, looks like your windstorm will arrive here Sunday. Let’s see what it’s made of. Boundary layer winds look decent. Be carful! She lied to us on her profile! She is underwhelming. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said: Rain shadow finally falling apart up here. Only about 0.1" in the bucket in the last 24 hours. Looks like the Mt. Baker weather station is down currently. Would love to know how much snow they got overnight. Last report I saw at 4 am said 22" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said: Or if it moved North and east in the sweet spot giving the puget sound a huge windstorm! It wont do either but nice to dream. A 954mb low in the sweetspot would be.......how do I even grasp that. Unthinkable. Calling that a "huge windstorm" would be like calling a grizzly bear a "mean gopher." 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said: A 954mb low in the sweetspot would be.......how do I even grasp that. Unthinkable. Calling that a "huge windstorm" would be like calling a grizzly bear a "mean gopher." Had to look at what the Columbus Day storm came in at...960mb. So yeah, that would be significant to say the least. 1 1 Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 1 minute ago, jakerepp said: Had to look at what the Columbus Day storm came in at...960mb. So yeah, that would be significant to say the least. In terms of regionwide impact/s, yes but a one millibar difference would be like noticing the difference between 69 and 70 degrees. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: A 954mb low in the sweetspot would be.......how do I even grasp that. Unthinkable. Calling that a "huge windstorm" would be like calling a grizzly bear a "mean gopher." I will pass on this one but still a part of me wants it’s .....SAD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 The trend away from a warmup after that huge low is really nice to see on the GFS. Plenty of mountain snow and cool troughs later next week on this run. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 Just now, jakerepp said: Had to look at what the Columbus Day storm came in at...960mb. So yeah, that would be significant to say the least. I still have to think that the Columbus Day storm would beat it. The Columbus Day cyclone was a tightly-packed pinhole low that produced ungodly pressure gradients in the heels of a retreating high pressure system. And even still, it vastly overperformed its average potential. The good thing about this storm is that the gradients are largely spread out along the coastline, save for the immediate vicinity surrounding the low, so that even in ground zero the pressure gradients wouldn't be skyrocketing outside of climatology. Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 Just now, Meatyorologist said: I still have to think that the Columbus Day storm would beat it. The Columbus Day cyclone was a tightly-packed pinhole low that produced ungodly pressure gradients in the heels of a retreating high pressure system. And even still, it vastly overperformed its average potential. The good thing about this storm is that the gradients are largely spread out along the coastline, save for the immediate vicinity surrounding the low, so that even in ground zero the pressure gradients wouldn't be skyrocketing outside of climatology. Oh absolutely. I have a hard time believing that storm could be bested. 1 1 Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 Here is the Canadian model. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 Anyone else working extremely hard today, with the live Masters broadcast on another screen? 3 2 Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 13, 2020 Report Share Posted November 13, 2020 14 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Here is the Canadian model. Way north but more inland Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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