Been waiting a while to grade this just in case more snow fell, but at this point it looks very unlikely that Chicago will receive any additional measurable snow.
Overall, this outlook was not good. Actual temperature departure for DJF was +6.8 degrees, which is well above my range. 22.2" of snow occurred, which is below my range. There were 3 days below zero, which is right in range and the best aspect of this forecast by far.
Overall, all things considered, I'd probably give this like a D+ at best. As said, nailed the number of below zero days, but the things that people tend to care about most are the temperature departures and snowfall amounts, and it was a pretty bad bust in that regard. In seasonal outlooks, there is an argument that being on the right side of a departure deserves some credit, even if the value is off. I agree with that to some extent, but a temp departure of +6.8 is so far above my upper range of +1 that I really just can't give any credit for that. There is a big difference between how a +1 winter feels compared to a +6.8 winter. The snowfall forecast was not quite as bad imo. Although snowfall came in under my values, the overall tenor of the season was reflected fairly well in that it was less snowy than average.
As far as what went wrong, I definitely put too much stock into the strong Ninos of the past. Those tended to not be all out torches (except the super Ninos). Also, it seems like we actually may have had too much forcing too far west in the Nino regions.
Little quirky thing... if the 22.2" of snow holds, it will only be the second time on record that Chicago's snowfall amount has all of the same numbers. The only other time it happened was when 44.4" fell in 1893-94.
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