Weather1011 Posted November 16, 2020 Report Share Posted November 16, 2020 1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said: Not bad. A little stronger in the Puget Sound region due to random mesoscale features that won't be ironed out until the few hours preceding it. Overall a very similar run. Still high uncertainty with this system. I'm up in Vancouver so ill take it. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 16, 2020 Report Share Posted November 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, Weather1011 said: I'm up in Vancouver so ill take it. If you have time off, it might be worth a ferry ride to southern Vancouver Island near Ucluelet or Port Renfrew. Victoria will be significantly wind shadowed, so not there.. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 16, 2020 Report Share Posted November 16, 2020 Wound up with 0.25” today. Tomorrow should be our 5th day in a row with rainfall. 11 out of 15 days this month have had rainfall so far...about to be 12 for 16. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 16, 2020 Report Share Posted November 16, 2020 1 hour ago, snow_wizard said: Tonight's GFS wasn't bad at all. A lot of action and some unusually strong surface lows well SE of where you would normally see them. If we're going to get a big windstorm I'm betting it will be between now and when the serious blocking sets up later on. It would be surprising if we don't see a good one sometime this month IMO. At some point we will get a decent storm. Hopefully it snows soon too. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather1011 Posted November 16, 2020 Report Share Posted November 16, 2020 52 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: If you have time off, it might be worth a ferry ride to southern Vancouver Island near Ucluelet or Port Renfrew. Victoria will be significantly wind shadowed, so not there.. I honestly never thought of that before and that actually sounds like a great idea. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 16, 2020 Report Share Posted November 16, 2020 6z NAM 3km What the heck. The low moves into Central Vancouver Island. That's new. Looks like a HUGE windstorm for Bellingham. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 16, 2020 Report Share Posted November 16, 2020 Only 25% of 00z Euro members get above 55mph gusts throughout the region, same as 12z suite, but the ones that do go crazy. A few 70+'s in there. Still disagreement on timing, though this time within the 12pm Tue. and 12am. Weds timeframe instead of the wild 30 hour spread in timing 24 hours ago. As to be expected with a cyclone that has finally begun development. Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 16, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 16, 2020 Close Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 16, 2020 Report Share Posted November 16, 2020 Wizard is going to love this... Nice PV lobe knocking on the door in the fantasy range. First significantly arctic system to appear in the long range since earlier this month. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 16, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 16, 2020 Colder runs ahead. Signing off for the night. The goodies are coming. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 16, 2020 Report Share Posted November 16, 2020 Greenland Ice Shelf cold. Too bad it slides east. Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted November 16, 2020 Report Share Posted November 16, 2020 I notice after the huge low, the GFS wants to develop a much weaker but closer low, curious if it becomes stronger over the next few model runs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 16, 2020 Report Share Posted November 16, 2020 Oh WOW! Potential MAJOR development now. PDX NWS says the southern low may become the dominant one and are concerned about this watching it closely. Looking at IR/WV imagery the past 6-8 hours I agree with their assessment. This would be a major game changer and could perhaps lead to High Winds inland. All eyes on IR/WV Loop today! Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 357 AM PST Mon Nov 16 2020 .SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...Stormy November weather continues for the Pacific Northwest. GOES-West water vapor and infrared imagery reveal a deep upper level trough over the NE Pacific, the base of which is beginning to press south of 30N. The area near and just east of 35N/145W is responding to an impressive 150 kt jet core digging from the N-NW with what appears to be rapid surface low development, suggested by the numerous lightning strikes and increasingly cyclonic low-level flow in that area. This system will strengthen further while approaching the Pac NW coast, and will be a major factor in Tuesday's weather. Now, back to Tuesday, and the strong developing low offshore. Models have generally depicted this system as the secondary of two low pressure systems expected to develop over the NE Pacific today, with the primary low developing closer to 40N/135W. This is a bit concerning, as satellite analysis and lightning detection seem to favor the more southern low as the dominant low...and this is the one expected to brush closest to our coastline as it curls toward the Washington coast or Vancouver Island Tuesday. Confidence has increased enough in the wind threat with this system that we will be upgrading our High Wind Watch to High Wind Warning shortly for 65-75 mph gusts along the S WA/N OR coast, and will be including Oregon's Central Coast as well. With most models remaining offshore with the low track, there will be some easterly component to the MSLP gradients, which may keep the strongest winds out of most of our coastal communities. However, if the low ends up tracking onshore before moving north of Willapa Bay, the coastal communities and perhaps even inland areas could end up under threat of strong winds as well. On top of all this, increasing easterly MSLP gradients will drive fairly strong easterly winds through the Columbia Gorge, with gusts 45-55 mph west of Cascade Locks, and gusts up to 40 mph reaching eastern portions of the Portland metro area. Overall - Will need to watch satellite trends closely today to determine how well models are handling the initialization of the developing situation offshore. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 16, 2020 Report Share Posted November 16, 2020 This one has everything going for it. Strong jet, a ton of cold air pouring into it, and deep southerly trajectory. It could perhaps cross or be in proximity of the critical ~40 N, ~130 W position threshold for all major PNW wind storms. 12z GFS in 38 minutes 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 16, 2020 Report Share Posted November 16, 2020 Generators, back to standby! Hrrr 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 16, 2020 Report Share Posted November 16, 2020 Just now, Jginmartini said: Generators, back to standby! Hrrr HRRR not yet initializing the southern low it seems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 16, 2020 Report Share Posted November 16, 2020 Yesterday was fun while it lasted. Now the bright orb in the sky is back out, usual business. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 16, 2020 Report Share Posted November 16, 2020 34 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Oh WOW! Potential MAJOR development now. PDX NWS says the southern low may become the dominant one and are concerned about this watching it closely. Looking at IR/WV imagery the past 6-8 hours I agree with their assessment. This would be a major game changer and could perhaps lead to High Winds inland. All eyes on IR/WV Loop today! Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 357 AM PST Mon Nov 16 2020 .SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...Stormy November weather continues for the Pacific Northwest. GOES-West water vapor and infrared imagery reveal a deep upper level trough over the NE Pacific, the base of which is beginning to press south of 30N. The area near and just east of 35N/145W is responding to an impressive 150 kt jet core digging from the N-NW with what appears to be rapid surface low development, suggested by the numerous lightning strikes and increasingly cyclonic low-level flow in that area. This system will strengthen further while approaching the Pac NW coast, and will be a major factor in Tuesday's weather. Now, back to Tuesday, and the strong developing low offshore. Models have generally depicted this system as the secondary of two low pressure systems expected to develop over the NE Pacific today, with the primary low developing closer to 40N/135W. This is a bit concerning, as satellite analysis and lightning detection seem to favor the more southern low as the dominant low...and this is the one expected to brush closest to our coastline as it curls toward the Washington coast or Vancouver Island Tuesday. Confidence has increased enough in the wind threat with this system that we will be upgrading our High Wind Watch to High Wind Warning shortly for 65-75 mph gusts along the S WA/N OR coast, and will be including Oregon's Central Coast as well. With most models remaining offshore with the low track, there will be some easterly component to the MSLP gradients, which may keep the strongest winds out of most of our coastal communities. However, if the low ends up tracking onshore before moving north of Willapa Bay, the coastal communities and perhaps even inland areas could end up under threat of strong winds as well. On top of all this, increasing easterly MSLP gradients will drive fairly strong easterly winds through the Columbia Gorge, with gusts 45-55 mph west of Cascade Locks, and gusts up to 40 mph reaching eastern portions of the Portland metro area. Overall - Will need to watch satellite trends closely today to determine how well models are handling the initialization of the developing situation offshore. Very interesting. Let’s see if the 12z models agree with this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted November 16, 2020 Report Share Posted November 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said: Yesterday was fun while it lasted. Now the bright orb in the sky is back out, usual business. The sun isn't even up here yet haha 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 16, 2020 Report Share Posted November 16, 2020 the southern low would affect mostly oregon/portland area and not the puget sound right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 16, 2020 Report Share Posted November 16, 2020 Ship observation to the northeast of the low at 6 AM reported rapid pressure falls. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 16, 2020 Report Share Posted November 16, 2020 nws says 40 mph gusts in the puget sound so far 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 16, 2020 Report Share Posted November 16, 2020 AFD's say a bit of terrain obscuring around here in this upcoming storm, but I dunno I have seen pretty big southeasterly rockers before (Feb 2015 comes to mind) that gave K-Falls 60-70mph gusts. Maybe I'm overly optimistic here. I just think the High Wind Warnings should extend to the Klamath Falls city limits. I'm not nearly the model rider I was before, they could be entirely right. 2 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 16, 2020 Report Share Posted November 16, 2020 Unless models are significantly underplaying this, it looks like this should be a pretty typical fall storm up here with gusts to around 50 mph. 06z NAM was windiest I've seen so far suggesting gusts in the mid 60s which would make it significant, but 12z has backed off that again to the mid 50s. There are windier frames for South Sound, but these are the windiest for the North Sound. 06z 12z 1 1 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 16, 2020 Report Share Posted November 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said: Unless models are significantly underplaying this, it looks like this should be a pretty typical fall storm up here with gusts to around 50 mph. 06z NAM was windiest I've seen so far suggesting gusts in the mid 60s which would make it significant, but 12z has backed off that again to the mid 50s. There are windier frames for South Sound, but these are the windiest for the North Sound. 06z 12z Still the puget sound is much lower in terms of gusts at least on the east side. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 16, 2020 Report Share Posted November 16, 2020 12z GFS has not yet initialized the southern low. It initialized the northern low 5mb too strong. At 12z it was at 1003mb(estimate) and GFS initialized it at 998mb. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 16, 2020 Report Share Posted November 16, 2020 12z GFS Day 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted November 16, 2020 Report Share Posted November 16, 2020 0.12" this morning. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 16, 2020 Report Share Posted November 16, 2020 50mph may not look impressive on paper but that will cause plenty of damage. All eyes on the trailing front swinging up from the parent low. After looking at the sat loop I'm getting that feeling we're getting a good blow. After this year I'd say we're due! 2 1 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 16, 2020 Report Share Posted November 16, 2020 Cinnamon Roll Season is upon us! Hopefully this time we can get both snowstorms AND windstorms, like in the 90's. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 16, 2020 Report Share Posted November 16, 2020 Day 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 16, 2020 Report Share Posted November 16, 2020 Day 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 16, 2020 Report Share Posted November 16, 2020 Day 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 16, 2020 Report Share Posted November 16, 2020 1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said: Oh WOW! Potential MAJOR development now. PDX NWS says the southern low may become the dominant one and are concerned about this watching it closely. Looking at IR/WV imagery the past 6-8 hours I agree with their assessment. This would be a major game changer and could perhaps lead to High Winds inland. All eyes on IR/WV Loop today! Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 357 AM PST Mon Nov 16 2020 .SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...Stormy November weather continues for the Pacific Northwest. GOES-West water vapor and infrared imagery reveal a deep upper level trough over the NE Pacific, the base of which is beginning to press south of 30N. The area near and just east of 35N/145W is responding to an impressive 150 kt jet core digging from the N-NW with what appears to be rapid surface low development, suggested by the numerous lightning strikes and increasingly cyclonic low-level flow in that area. This system will strengthen further while approaching the Pac NW coast, and will be a major factor in Tuesday's weather. Now, back to Tuesday, and the strong developing low offshore. Models have generally depicted this system as the secondary of two low pressure systems expected to develop over the NE Pacific today, with the primary low developing closer to 40N/135W. This is a bit concerning, as satellite analysis and lightning detection seem to favor the more southern low as the dominant low...and this is the one expected to brush closest to our coastline as it curls toward the Washington coast or Vancouver Island Tuesday. Confidence has increased enough in the wind threat with this system that we will be upgrading our High Wind Watch to High Wind Warning shortly for 65-75 mph gusts along the S WA/N OR coast, and will be including Oregon's Central Coast as well. With most models remaining offshore with the low track, there will be some easterly component to the MSLP gradients, which may keep the strongest winds out of most of our coastal communities. However, if the low ends up tracking onshore before moving north of Willapa Bay, the coastal communities and perhaps even inland areas could end up under threat of strong winds as well. On top of all this, increasing easterly MSLP gradients will drive fairly strong easterly winds through the Columbia Gorge, with gusts 45-55 mph west of Cascade Locks, and gusts up to 40 mph reaching eastern portions of the Portland metro area. Overall - Will need to watch satellite trends closely today to determine how well models are handling the initialization of the developing situation offshore. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G17&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24 animation of that area 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 16, 2020 Report Share Posted November 16, 2020 Day 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 16, 2020 Report Share Posted November 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, Jginmartini said: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G17&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24 Southern low is clearly the dominant one. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 16, 2020 Report Share Posted November 16, 2020 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Southern low is clearly the dominant one. And look at that ascent out ahead of the developing circulation. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 16, 2020 Report Share Posted November 16, 2020 Day 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 16, 2020 Report Share Posted November 16, 2020 In the Atlantic, Iota just became the latest category 5 storm ever. Pretty amazing that the strongest storm of the year is going to landfall after mid November. Winds currently at 160 mph. 4 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 16, 2020 Report Share Posted November 16, 2020 Day 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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