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November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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4 minutes ago, Weather1011 said:

I'm up in Vancouver so ill take it.

If you have time off, it might be worth a ferry ride to southern Vancouver Island near Ucluelet or Port Renfrew. Victoria will be significantly wind shadowed, so not there..

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Wound up with 0.25” today. Tomorrow should be our 5th day in a row with rainfall. 11 out of 15 days this month have had rainfall so far...about to be 12 for 16. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Tonight's GFS wasn't bad at all.  A lot of action and some unusually strong surface lows well SE of where you would normally see them.  If we're going to get a big windstorm I'm betting it will be between now and when the serious blocking sets up later on.  It would be surprising if we don't see a good one sometime this month IMO.

At some point we will get a decent storm. Hopefully it snows soon too. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Only 25% of 00z Euro members get above 55mph gusts throughout the region, same as 12z suite, but the ones that do go crazy. A few 70+'s in there. Still disagreement on timing, though this time within the 12pm Tue. and 12am. Weds timeframe instead of the wild 30 hour spread in timing 24 hours ago. As to be expected with a cyclone that has finally begun development.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_53.png

Close

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_53.pngWizard is going to love this... Nice PV lobe knocking on the door in the fantasy range. First significantly arctic system to appear in the long range since earlier this month.

  • Snow 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Colder runs ahead. Signing off for the night. The goodies are coming.

  • Sun 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

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image.thumb.png.593643ff64d32ec0baabe7bc2664e6bb.pngGreenland Ice Shelf cold. Too bad it slides east.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Oh WOW! Potential MAJOR development now. PDX NWS says the southern low may become the dominant one and are concerned about this watching it closely. Looking at IR/WV imagery the past 6-8 hours I agree with their assessment. This would be a major game changer and could perhaps lead to High Winds inland. All eyes on IR/WV Loop today!

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR 
357 AM PST Mon Nov 16 2020

 

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...Stormy November weather
continues for the Pacific Northwest. GOES-West water vapor and
infrared imagery reveal a deep upper level trough over the NE
Pacific, the base of which is beginning to press south of 30N. The
area near and just east of 35N/145W is responding to an impressive
150 kt jet core digging from the N-NW with what appears to be rapid
surface low development, suggested by the numerous lightning strikes
and increasingly cyclonic low-level flow in that area. This system
will strengthen further while approaching the Pac NW coast, and will
be a major factor in Tuesday's weather.

 

Now, back to Tuesday, and the strong developing low offshore. Models
have generally depicted this system as the secondary of two low
pressure systems expected to develop over the NE Pacific today, with
the primary low developing closer to 40N/135W. This is a bit
concerning, as satellite analysis and lightning detection seem to
favor the more southern low as the dominant low...and this is the one
expected to brush closest to our coastline as it curls toward the
Washington coast or Vancouver Island Tuesday. Confidence has
increased enough in the wind threat with this system that we will be
upgrading our High Wind Watch to High Wind Warning shortly for 65-75
mph gusts along the S WA/N OR coast, and will be including Oregon's
Central Coast as well. With most models remaining offshore with the
low track, there will be some easterly component to the MSLP
gradients, which may keep the strongest winds out of most of our
coastal communities. However, if the low ends up tracking onshore
before moving north of Willapa Bay, the coastal communities and
perhaps even inland areas could end up under threat of strong winds
as well. On top of all this, increasing easterly MSLP gradients will
drive fairly strong easterly winds through the Columbia Gorge, with
gusts 45-55 mph west of Cascade Locks, and gusts up to 40 mph
reaching eastern portions of the Portland metro area. Overall - Will
need to watch satellite trends closely today to determine how well
models are handling the initialization of the developing situation
offshore.

11-16-20 530 AM IR.png

11-16-20 530 AM WV.png

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Yesterday was fun while it lasted. Now the bright orb in the sky is back out, usual business. 

  • Like 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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34 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Oh WOW! Potential MAJOR development now. PDX NWS says the southern low may become the dominant one and are concerned about this watching it closely. Looking at IR/WV imagery the past 6-8 hours I agree with their assessment. This would be a major game changer and could perhaps lead to High Winds inland. All eyes on IR/WV Loop today!


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR 
357 AM PST Mon Nov 16 2020

 


.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...Stormy November weather
continues for the Pacific Northwest. GOES-West water vapor and
infrared imagery reveal a deep upper level trough over the NE
Pacific, the base of which is beginning to press south of 30N. The
area near and just east of 35N/145W is responding to an impressive
150 kt jet core digging from the N-NW with what appears to be rapid
surface low development, suggested by the numerous lightning strikes
and increasingly cyclonic low-level flow in that area. This system
will strengthen further while approaching the Pac NW coast, and will
be a major factor in Tuesday's weather.

 


Now, back to Tuesday, and the strong developing low offshore. Models
have generally depicted this system as the secondary of two low
pressure systems expected to develop over the NE Pacific today, with
the primary low developing closer to 40N/135W. This is a bit
concerning, as satellite analysis and lightning detection seem to
favor the more southern low as the dominant low...and this is the one
expected to brush closest to our coastline as it curls toward the
Washington coast or Vancouver Island Tuesday. Confidence has
increased enough in the wind threat with this system that we will be
upgrading our High Wind Watch to High Wind Warning shortly for 65-75
mph gusts along the S WA/N OR coast, and will be including Oregon's
Central Coast as well. With most models remaining offshore with the
low track, there will be some easterly component to the MSLP
gradients, which may keep the strongest winds out of most of our
coastal communities. However, if the low ends up tracking onshore
before moving north of Willapa Bay, the coastal communities and
perhaps even inland areas could end up under threat of strong winds
as well. On top of all this, increasing easterly MSLP gradients will
drive fairly strong easterly winds through the Columbia Gorge, with
gusts 45-55 mph west of Cascade Locks, and gusts up to 40 mph
reaching eastern portions of the Portland metro area. Overall - Will
need to watch satellite trends closely today to determine how well
models are handling the initialization of the developing situation
offshore.

 

 

Very interesting. Let’s see if the 12z models agree with this. 

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AFD's say a bit of terrain obscuring around here in this upcoming storm, but I dunno I have seen pretty big southeasterly rockers before (Feb 2015 comes to mind) that gave K-Falls 60-70mph gusts. Maybe I'm overly optimistic here. I just think the High Wind Warnings should extend to the Klamath Falls city limits.

I'm not nearly the model rider I was before, they could be entirely right.

  • Like 2

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Unless models are significantly underplaying this, it looks like this should be a pretty typical fall storm up here with gusts to around 50 mph. 06z NAM was windiest I've seen so far suggesting gusts in the mid 60s which would make it significant, but 12z has backed off that again to the mid 50s. There are windier frames for South Sound, but these are the windiest for the North Sound.

06z

us_model-en-087-0_modusahd_2020111606_37_21483_211.thumb.png.eab3ce4583bb06594362c73d9c548b22.png

12z

us_model-en-087-0_modusahd_2020111612_31_21483_211.thumb.png.9a60c60aaa5f6eb13b8aab771582e08e.png

  • Like 1
  • Storm 1

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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3 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Unless models are significantly underplaying this, it looks like this should be a pretty typical fall storm up here with gusts to around 50 mph. 06z NAM was windiest I've seen so far suggesting gusts in the mid 60s which would make it significant, but 12z has backed off that again to the mid 50s. There are windier frames for South Sound, but these are the windiest for the North Sound.

06z

us_model-en-087-0_modusahd_2020111606_37_21483_211.thumb.png.eab3ce4583bb06594362c73d9c548b22.png

12z

us_model-en-087-0_modusahd_2020111612_31_21483_211.thumb.png.9a60c60aaa5f6eb13b8aab771582e08e.png

Still the puget sound is much lower in terms of gusts at least on the east side.

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50mph may not look impressive on paper but that will cause plenty of damage. All eyes on the trailing front swinging up from the parent low. After looking at the sat loop I'm getting that feeling we're getting a good blow. After this year I'd say we're due!

 

 

 

 

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  • Windy 1

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Cinnamon Roll Season is upon us!

Hopefully this time we can get both snowstorms AND windstorms, like in the 90's.

  • Like 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Share on other sites

1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said:

Oh WOW! Potential MAJOR development now. PDX NWS says the southern low may become the dominant one and are concerned about this watching it closely. Looking at IR/WV imagery the past 6-8 hours I agree with their assessment. This would be a major game changer and could perhaps lead to High Winds inland. All eyes on IR/WV Loop today!



Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR 
357 AM PST Mon Nov 16 2020

 



.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...Stormy November weather
continues for the Pacific Northwest. GOES-West water vapor and
infrared imagery reveal a deep upper level trough over the NE
Pacific, the base of which is beginning to press south of 30N. The
area near and just east of 35N/145W is responding to an impressive
150 kt jet core digging from the N-NW with what appears to be rapid
surface low development, suggested by the numerous lightning strikes
and increasingly cyclonic low-level flow in that area. This system
will strengthen further while approaching the Pac NW coast, and will
be a major factor in Tuesday's weather.

 



Now, back to Tuesday, and the strong developing low offshore. Models
have generally depicted this system as the secondary of two low
pressure systems expected to develop over the NE Pacific today, with
the primary low developing closer to 40N/135W. This is a bit
concerning, as satellite analysis and lightning detection seem to
favor the more southern low as the dominant low...and this is the one
expected to brush closest to our coastline as it curls toward the
Washington coast or Vancouver Island Tuesday. Confidence has
increased enough in the wind threat with this system that we will be
upgrading our High Wind Watch to High Wind Warning shortly for 65-75
mph gusts along the S WA/N OR coast, and will be including Oregon's
Central Coast as well. With most models remaining offshore with the
low track, there will be some easterly component to the MSLP
gradients, which may keep the strongest winds out of most of our
coastal communities. However, if the low ends up tracking onshore
before moving north of Willapa Bay, the coastal communities and
perhaps even inland areas could end up under threat of strong winds
as well. On top of all this, increasing easterly MSLP gradients will
drive fairly strong easterly winds through the Columbia Gorge, with
gusts 45-55 mph west of Cascade Locks, and gusts up to 40 mph
reaching eastern portions of the Portland metro area. Overall - Will
need to watch satellite trends closely today to determine how well
models are handling the initialization of the developing situation
offshore.

11-16-20 530 AM IR.png

11-16-20 530 AM WV.png

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G17&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

animation of that area :)

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In the Atlantic, Iota just became the latest category 5 storm ever. Pretty amazing that the strongest storm of the year is going to landfall after mid November. Winds currently at 160 mph.

  • Windy 4

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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