seattleweatherguy Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 Just now, snow_wizard said: The ECMWF weeklies still look promising for the final third of December for things to get colder. A petty solid signal for that far out. The last run showed the same. Phil hinted a window of dec 10 to 20 as a window a few days plus or minus that fits in with that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 12 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: 00z NAM looks pretty good. Close to 60mph winds in downtown Seattle. This is going to be a sleeper hit. All that hubub surrounding Friday's storm which fizzled out and not much fanfare for this one. If the NAM ends up right (which it has been remarkably consistent FWIW) it's going to be a very quick, intense burst of surprising wind. From 25 mph at 9AM to 52 an hour later. Fun. I'll have to see it to believe it. This just isn't the right situation for big wind in Seattle. This is an exceptionally low pressure environment though so who knows. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said: maybe the wind advisory is warrented I would say an advisory is the way to go right now. I don't think we will see warning criteria be met. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said: Phil hinted a window of dec 10 to 20 as a window a few days plus or minus that fits in with that I'm glad it's holding off. Our classics usually get started in the last half of December. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 Should be fun to see how this storm unfold. The unfortunate or fortunate (depending on views) thing is the track doesn’t seem to favor a major blow for the area. It’ll be windy and gusty, still. Feels like with the right track, this storm would give the Columbus Day Storm a run for its money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 The 18z ECMWF showed my area in quite a dead zone tomorrow. Enough easterly gradient to deaden the south winds. Seen it many times before. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, Cloud said: Should be fun to see how this storm unfold. The unfortunate or fortunate (depending on views) thing is the track doesn’t seem to favor a major blow for the area. It’ll be windy and gusty, still. Feels like with the right track, this storm would give the Columbus Day Storm a run for its money. If this one tracked like the Columbus Day Storm it would be just about as bad. You don't see 960 ish lows very often here. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 I'm wondering if the warm blast can hold off until midnight here. If so this would be 11 days in a row with a high below 50. Really impressive for this early in the season. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The ECMWF weeklies still look promising for the final third of December for things to get colder. A petty solid signal for that far out. The last run showed the same. Pics? It would make sense. I don't think we are going to see much in the way of meaningful cold before mid-December at the earliest. The jet which a month ago morons like me were saying was dead, is pretty much going full throttle right now. When it gets going like this, especially in a Nina, it can get going for 6-8 weeks. From a progression stand point maybe we follow something along the lines of 1998? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 Looks a little snowy north of Parksville this evening. Quite snowy up around Comox: 2 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 Well if the NAM is right I should be seeing some gusts in the 30s during the next few hours. Currently it's dead calm so I'll let you know if it picks up at all. 1 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 A 1998-99 type winter would be great for snowpack, but overall I hope our region does better this year. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Pics? It would make sense. I don't think we are going to see much in the way of meaningful cold before mid-December at the earliest. The jet which a month ago morons like me were saying was dead, is pretty much going full throttle right now. When it gets going like this, especially in a Nina, it can get going for 6-8 weeks. From a progression stand point maybe we follow something along the lines of 1998? Trofimov posted the EPS and long range 45 Day EPS in my group. Amazing continued active Pacific jet through early December. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 2 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said: Just got a wind advisory alert on my phone. Gusts to 50mph. You mean I no longer need to look for Gale ....I had a Gale watch 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 On 11/14/2020 at 2:55 PM, snow_wizard said: I think the Hanukah Eve Storm had a triple point involved. So called poisonous tail. Are you saying there's a chance, albeit minimal, that we may see a windstorm comparable to the Hanukkah Eve storm?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, crf450ish said: Are you saying there's a chance, albeit minimal, that we may see a windstorm comparable to the Hanukkah Eve storm?? so your telling me theres a chance.................YEAH! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, crf450ish said: Are you saying there's a chance, albeit minimal, that we may see a windstorm comparable to the Hanukkah Eve storm?? 2% chance Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 2 hours ago, iFred said: Hey folks! As we have what might be our first big event of the season, I want to ask everyone their input to an idea and a favor. First, what are people's thoughts to kicking off a separate topic to track this storm? Not that we would kick people out of this thread, but having a thread where people can nowcast, hit repeatedly with maps and pictures, and something that would be easier to reference in the future. Secondly, please get the word out about the forum. I would like to see more people participate, new members on, and some old timers come out of hiding. We don't make money off of this, and I'll never ask for a donation drive, put up ads, or sell your data. This site is up for the love of weather and and I think with our recent upgrades, it'd be nice to get some new folks on here. Anyway, nice to see that low deepen. Thought for sure Jim Cantore would be interest in this site but still hasn’t called me back! Will try again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 11 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Trofimov posted the EPS and long range 45 Day EPS in my group. Amazing continued active Pacific jet through early December. It really makes sense. Our last Nina in 2017-18 was characterized by fairly meager precip. It was inevitable we would get soaked, from a climo perspective. I would say a 1998-99, 2007-08 Nina is definitely on the table. Something colder like a 1970-71 is probably a realistic possibility too. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 1 hour ago, seattleweatherguy said: WWUS76 KSEW 162355 NPWSEW URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Seattle WA 355 PM PST Mon Nov 16 2020 WAZ509-511-556-558-559-171215- Tacoma Area-Hood Canal Area-Bellevue and Vicinity- Seattle and Vicinity-Bremerton and Vicinity- Including the cities of Tacoma, Shelton, Redmond, Kirkland, Bothell, Kenmore, Newport Hills, Sahalee, Pine Lake, Seattle, Bremerton, and Silverdale 355 PM PST Mon Nov 16 2020 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM PST TUESDAY... * WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...Tacoma Area, Hood Canal Area, Bellevue and Vicinity, Seattle and Vicinity and Bremerton and Vicinity. * WHEN...From 8 AM to 5 PM PST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && I’m in the vicinity.......I think? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Chewbacca Defense said: My usual desk is on the upper level along the south wall. It's 1-2ft concrete, so you can't hear anything from it, but the roof flexes from the wind buffeting over the wall, and that's usually our best indicator for how bad the winds are. I have to walk about 100 ft to get to a window. The only weather indicator I have now is a drain pipe from the roof, it was quite noisy at one point, so I'm guessing we had some pretty good rains going then. Lol, roof flexes at Costco as well! Only makes it worse!!! WHATS GOING ON OUTSIDE ???? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 Strangely quiet, mild and foggy here right now. 29.69" and falling. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtep Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, iFred said: I’ve got this sinking, but totally realistic feeling, that this will be an amazing winter for anyone over 1500ft. Under that, enjoy the cold rain. I think about how awesome it would be if western Washington had more live-able highlands quite a bit. Winter would be a whole different animal. Even the people living at 800-1000' around Bham see much whiter winters. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 1 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 19 minutes ago, mtep said: I think about how awesome it would be if western Washington had more live-able highlands quite a bit. Winter would be a whole different animal. Even the people living at 800-1000' around Bham see much whiter winters. I’d love to live somewhere up north at that elevation roughly. If it wasn’t so isolated I’d live on orcas island. They have some pretty cool terrain with some decent foothills. 3 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 Forget Monday Night Football, it's time for Monday Night Model Riding! 00z GFS Day 1 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 44 minutes ago, iFred said: I’ve got this sinking, but totally realistic feeling, that this will be an amazing winter for anyone over 1500ft. Under that, enjoy the cold rain. LOW SOLAR. 1 3 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 Day 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 2 Didn't this trend closer? I feel like the cold was way off in the pacific a couple days ago. Maybe I am trippin tho 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 At least Something good this year has happened, AC/DC has a new album and they sound absolutely great! These guys are timeless. 1 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said: At least Something good this year has happened, AC/DC has a new album and they sound absolutely great! These guys are timeless. I was pleasantly surprised. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 Day 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Didn't this trend closer? I feel like the cold was way off in the pacific a couple days ago. Maybe I am trippin tho It does seem like the energy moving off Siberia, through the Bering, and into the Aleutians has progressed yeah. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, Deweydog said: I was pleasantly surprised. Brian Johnson sounds like he's 40 again! Good stuff. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 Some light fog here as well. Stormy! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 Day 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 Are models underdoing the strength of the secondary low? 2 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 1 minute ago, Requiem said: Are models underdoing the strength of the secondary low? I think so. Good circulation center really spinning on IR loop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 Day 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: I think so. Good circulation center really spinning on IR loop. They don't want to accept they were wrong with it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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