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November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


TigerWoodsLibido

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12 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

00z NAM looks pretty good. Close to 60mph winds in downtown Seattle.

This is going to be a sleeper hit. All that hubub surrounding Friday's storm which fizzled out and not much fanfare for this one.

If the NAM ends up right (which it has been remarkably consistent FWIW) it's going to be a very quick, intense burst of surprising wind. From 25 mph at 9AM to 52 an hour later. Fun.

1605646800-prPLk5dia3k.png

I'll have to see it to believe it.  This just isn't the right situation for big wind in Seattle.  This is an exceptionally low pressure environment though so who knows.

  • Windy 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said:

maybe the wind advisory is warrented

I would say an advisory is the way to go right now.  I don't think we will see warning criteria be met.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said:

Phil hinted a window of dec 10 to 20 as a window a few days plus or minus that fits in with that

I'm glad it's holding off.  Our classics usually get started in the last half of December.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Should be fun to see how this storm unfold. The unfortunate or fortunate (depending on views) thing is the track doesn’t seem to favor a major blow for the area. It’ll be windy and gusty, still. 

Feels like with the right track, this storm would give the Columbus Day Storm a run for its money. 

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The 18z ECMWF showed my area in quite a dead zone tomorrow.  Enough easterly gradient to deaden the south winds.  Seen it many times before.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Should be fun to see how this storm unfold. The unfortunate or fortunate (depending on views) thing is the track doesn’t seem to favor a major blow for the area. It’ll be windy and gusty, still. 

Feels like with the right track, this storm would give the Columbus Day Storm a run for its money. 

If this one tracked like the Columbus Day Storm it would be just about as bad.  You don't see 960 ish lows very often here.

  • Like 3

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I'm wondering if the warm blast can hold off until midnight here.  If so this would be 11 days in a row with a high below 50.  Really impressive for this early in the season.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF weeklies still look promising for the final third of December for things to get colder.  A petty solid signal for that far out.  The last run showed the same.

Pics? 

It would make sense. I don't think we are going to see much in the way of meaningful cold before mid-December at the earliest. The jet which a month ago morons like me were saying was dead, is pretty much going full throttle right now. When it gets going like this, especially in a Nina, it can get going for 6-8 weeks. From a progression stand point maybe we follow something along the lines of 1998?

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Well if the NAM is right I should be seeing some gusts in the 30s during the next few hours. Currently it's dead calm so I'll let you know if it picks up at all.

  • Windy 1

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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A 1998-99 type winter would be great for snowpack, but overall I hope our region does better this year. 

  • Snow 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Pics? 

It would make sense. I don't think we are going to see much in the way of meaningful cold before mid-December at the earliest. The jet which a month ago morons like me were saying was dead, is pretty much going full throttle right now. When it gets going like this, especially in a Nina, it can get going for 6-8 weeks. From a progression stand point maybe we follow something along the lines of 1998?

Trofimov posted the EPS and long range 45 Day EPS in my group. Amazing continued active Pacific jet through early December.

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2 hours ago, iFred said:

Hey folks!

As we have what might be our first big event of the season, I want to ask everyone their input to an idea and a favor.

First, what are people's thoughts to kicking off a separate topic to track this storm? Not that we would kick people out of this thread, but having a thread where people can nowcast, hit repeatedly with maps and pictures, and something that would be easier to reference in the future.

Secondly, please get the word out about the forum. I would like to see more people participate, new members on, and some old timers come out of hiding. We don't make money off of this, and I'll never ask for a donation drive, put up ads, or sell your data. This site is up for the love of weather and and I think with our recent upgrades, it'd be nice to get some new folks on here.

Anyway, nice to see that low deepen.

Thought for sure Jim Cantore would be interest in this site but still hasn’t called me back!   Will try again 

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11 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Trofimov posted the EPS and long range 45 Day EPS in my group. Amazing continued active Pacific jet through early December.

It really makes sense. Our last Nina in 2017-18 was characterized by fairly meager precip. It was inevitable we would get soaked, from a climo perspective. 

I would say a 1998-99, 2007-08 Nina is definitely on the table. Something colder like a 1970-71 is probably a realistic possibility too. 

 

  • Snow 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, seattleweatherguy said:

WWUS76 KSEW 162355
NPWSEW

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Seattle WA
355 PM PST Mon Nov 16 2020


WAZ509-511-556-558-559-171215-

Tacoma Area-Hood Canal Area-Bellevue and Vicinity-
Seattle and Vicinity-Bremerton and Vicinity-
Including the cities of Tacoma, Shelton, Redmond, Kirkland,
Bothell, Kenmore, Newport Hills, Sahalee, Pine Lake, Seattle,
Bremerton, and Silverdale
355 PM PST Mon Nov 16 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM PST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
expected.

* WHERE...Tacoma Area, Hood Canal Area, Bellevue and Vicinity,
Seattle and Vicinity and Bremerton and Vicinity.

* WHEN...From 8 AM to 5 PM PST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.
Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may
result.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

I’m in the vicinity.......I think? 

  • Excited 1
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1 hour ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

My usual desk is on the upper level along the south wall.  It's 1-2ft concrete, so you can't hear anything from it, but the roof flexes from the wind buffeting over the wall, and that's usually our best indicator for how bad the winds are.  I have to walk about 100 ft to get to a window.  The only weather indicator I have now is a drain pipe from the roof, it was quite noisy at one point, so I'm guessing we had some pretty good rains going then.

Lol, roof flexes at Costco as well!  Only makes it worse!!! WHATS GOING ON OUTSIDE ????  

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7 minutes ago, iFred said:

I’ve got this sinking, but totally realistic feeling, that this will be an amazing winter for anyone over 1500ft. Under that, enjoy the cold rain.

I think about how awesome it would be if western Washington had more live-able highlands quite a bit. Winter would be a whole different animal. Even the people living at 800-1000' around Bham see much whiter winters.

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19 minutes ago, mtep said:

I think about how awesome it would be if western Washington had more live-able highlands quite a bit. Winter would be a whole different animal. Even the people living at 800-1000' around Bham see much whiter winters.

I’d love to live somewhere up north at that elevation roughly. If it wasn’t so isolated I’d live on orcas island. They have some pretty cool terrain with some decent foothills. 

  • Like 3

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Are models underdoing the strength of the secondary low?

  • Windy 2

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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