Requiem Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 Is the primary low 985 or that secondary low swinging up towards the coast? Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, Requiem said: Is the primary low 985 or that secondary low swinging up towards the coast? I think it's the 966mb one to the north of Vancouver Island. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 9 PM 46005: 28.97" (980mb), -0.10 (Falling) 46002: 29.13" (986mb), -0.06 (Falling) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 I stole this from twitter, but I've been watching the HRRR over the last few hours. This map has a fat 60 mph gust right over me. Would love to see that, but now we'll just have to wait and see. 1 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 00z ECMWF Day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 9 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said: I stole this from twitter, but I've been watching the HRRR over the last few hours. This map has a fat 60 mph gust right over me. Would love to see that, but now we'll just have to wait and see. dang which model to trust shows 48 to 55 around me 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 Day 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 18 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said: I stole this from twitter, but I've been watching the HRRR over the last few hours. This map has a fat 60 mph gust right over me. Would love to see that, but now we'll just have to wait and see. I'm in the middle of one of the exciting brown areas! 2 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 Day 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 Barometer is dropping. 1 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 9'er Good things are coming. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 Day 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 Day 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 Day 6 Ridge merger would be nice Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 Day 7 Pretty good agreement with the GFS at this point. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 Day 8 Not bad. Not bad 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 As of 10:20 PM the southern low is down to about 982mb. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: As of 10:20 PM the southern low is down to about 982mb. NWS Portland had the low getting down to 985mb by early tomorrow morning. Could be a sign of a windy bust. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said: NWS Portland had the low getting down to 985mb by early tomorrow morning. Could be a sign of a windy bust. I base that on Buoy 46002 is now at 984mb and the low is still west of there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 Day 9'er Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 Just now, hawkstwelve said: Not sure the background on this model but it shows a gustier solution so I like it! It's so-and-so from my amateur perspective. Do NOT look at its cousin, the ARW2. It has a significant mixing bias and will regularly deliver 70mph clearcutters from random convective events and run-of-the-mill windstorms. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: Here's another one I know nothing about, but it's windy so I'm sharing it! It has a mild mixing bias, so I'd knock off 15-20%. Still some decent gusts around 45mph or so. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 Day 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals - MEGA Wet! Nice dump of Mt. Snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Here's another one I know nothing about, but it's windy so I'm sharing it! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 Time to get the skis, snowboards, snowshoes out and get ready to head to the Cascades. 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather1011 Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 Something cool 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 IR Update Time for an update. The northern stronger low has finally revealed itself. As of 10:30 PM Buoy 46005 300NM West of Aberdeen, WA is reporting a barometric pressure of 978mb. Buoy 46002 275NM West of Coos Bay, OR is reporting a barometric pressure of 983mb. Both lows continue to deepen. I estimate the northern low is now around 973mb and its track is off to the north-northeast. The southern low is estimated at 980mb which is dramatically stronger than anything modeled and is moving east-northeast. We must keep an eye on the southern low, its depth, and exactly where it tracks. In a few hours that low will have reached or pass by Buoy 46002 to which we then will rely on the Buoys off Newport, Tillamook, and the Central Washington Coast. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 11 PM UPDATE - Now have rapid pressure falls with northern and southern low. 46005: 28.86" (977 mb) -0.15 (Falling rapidly) 46002: 29.02" (982.4 mb) -0.12 (Falling rapidly) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 11:20 PM 46002 now 982mb. Southern low may be sub-980mb now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 I don't mean to be overly dramatic, but the Euro is seriously undermodeling the southerly low here. I have an alarm for 5:30 in case the weather world is blowing up. Or maybe the energy will get reconsolidated into the main low. Or maybe the low really is being undermodeled, but the tack will only be significant for maybe a 5mph or so overachievement. I guess we'll have to wait and see. 2 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 Wow. 11:30 PM 46002 now at 28.97, 981mb. Models continue to show no southern low. If there was not a southern low 46002 would be reporting pressure rises with the northern low well to its north moving northeast. Makes no sense. Shows no southern low when there is clearly strong circulation on IR now at 41 N, 131.6 W. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 Even the NAM, which at least predicted the existence of the southerly low, is ~10mb short. Keep in mind this model brought 62mph gusts to West Seattle. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 18 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: I don't mean to be overly dramatic, but the Euro is seriously undermodeling the southerly low here. I have an alarm for 5:30 in case the weather world is blowing up. Or maybe the energy will get reconsolidated into the main low. Or maybe the low really is being undermodeled, but the tack will only be significant for maybe a 5mph or so overachievement. I guess we'll have to wait and see. Might not be a bad idea. I’ll set one too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 Low is closing in on 46002 now. It *should* turn northeast sharply and then north. Watching closely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 Meh... 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 11:50 PM 46002: 28.95 980mb 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: 11:50 PM 46002: 28.95 980mb Man, what a miss by the models. Is the low center even over the buoy yet? 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 17, 2020 Report Share Posted November 17, 2020 Just now, Meatyorologist said: Man, what a miss by the models. Is the low center even over the buoy yet? It has to be really soon. The 12 AM observation may reveal that. Both of these lows are undergoing strong cyclogenesis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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