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November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


TigerWoodsLibido

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Is the primary low 985 or that secondary low swinging up towards the coast?

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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2 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Is the primary low 985 or that secondary low swinging up towards the coast?

I think it's the 966mb one to the north of Vancouver Island.

1605636000-20hOKC8D7fM.png

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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I stole this from twitter, but I've been watching the HRRR over the last few hours. This map has a fat 60 mph gust right over me. Would love to see that, but now we'll just have to wait and see.

20201117_02z_HRRR.thumb.jpeg.6ad6a28b7d48148e5613ff6935318132.jpeg

  • Windy 1

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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18 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

I stole this from twitter, but I've been watching the HRRR over the last few hours. This map has a fat 60 mph gust right over me. Would love to see that, but now we'll just have to wait and see.

20201117_02z_HRRR.thumb.jpeg.6ad6a28b7d48148e5613ff6935318132.jpeg

I'm in the middle of one of the exciting brown areas!

  • Excited 2
  • Windy 1
It's called clown range for a reason.

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1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 9'er

500h_anom.na.png

Good things are coming.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

As of 10:20 PM the southern low is down to about 982mb.

NWS Portland had the low getting down to 985mb by early tomorrow morning. Could be a sign of a windy bust.

  • Windy 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Just now, hawkstwelve said:

Not sure the background on this model but it shows a gustier solution so I like it!

ncep-wrf-arw-conus-washington-gust_swath_mph-5657600.png

It's so-and-so from my amateur perspective. Do NOT look at its cousin, the ARW2. It has a significant mixing bias and will regularly deliver 70mph clearcutters from random convective events and run-of-the-mill windstorms.

  • Windy 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Here's another one I know nothing about, but it's windy so I'm sharing it!

ncep-wrf-nmmb-conus-seattle-gust_swath_mph-5690000.png

It has a mild mixing bias, so I'd knock off 15-20%. Still some decent gusts around 45mph or so.

  • Like 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Time to get the skis, snowboards, snowshoes out and get ready to head to the Cascades.

1606435200-4sJVrKc39qE.png

  • Like 1
  • Snow 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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IR Update
Time for an update. The northern stronger low has finally revealed itself.
As of 10:30 PM
 
Buoy 46005 300NM West of Aberdeen, WA is reporting a barometric pressure of 978mb.
Buoy 46002 275NM West of Coos Bay, OR is reporting a barometric pressure of 983mb.
 
Both lows continue to deepen. I estimate the northern low is now around 973mb and its track is off to the north-northeast. The southern low is estimated at 980mb which is dramatically stronger than anything modeled and is moving east-northeast. We must keep an eye on the southern low, its depth, and exactly where it tracks. In a few hours that low will have reached or pass by Buoy 46002 to which we then will rely on the Buoys off Newport, Tillamook, and the Central Washington Coast.
11-16-20 1030 PM IR.png
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us_model-en-087-0_modez_2020111700_8_15821_149.thumb.png.db9164a18931d1fd0ba8901c78fa305f.png

I don't mean to be overly dramatic, but the Euro is seriously undermodeling the southerly low here. I have an alarm for 5:30 in case the weather world is blowing up. Or maybe the energy will get reconsolidated into the main low. Or maybe the low really is being undermodeled, but the tack will only be significant for maybe a 5mph or so overachievement. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

  • Like 2
  • Windy 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Wow. 11:30 PM 46002 now at 28.97, 981mb. Models continue to show no southern low. If there was not a southern low 46002 would be reporting pressure rises with the northern low well to its north moving northeast. Makes no sense. Shows no southern low when there is clearly strong circulation on IR now at 41 N, 131.6 W.
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4B38240A-1F41-4992-BAB9-FAE69F6CB249.thumb.png.4f57da4bc9849ac6003ccb0706baccd0.png

Even the NAM, which at least predicted the existence of the southerly low, is ~10mb short. Keep in mind this model brought 62mph gusts to West Seattle.

  • Windy 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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18 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2020111700_8_15821_149.thumb.png.db9164a18931d1fd0ba8901c78fa305f.png

I don't mean to be overly dramatic, but the Euro is seriously undermodeling the southerly low here. I have an alarm for 5:30 in case the weather world is blowing up. Or maybe the energy will get reconsolidated into the main low. Or maybe the low really is being undermodeled, but the tack will only be significant for maybe a 5mph or so overachievement. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

Might not be a bad idea. I’ll set one too.

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Meh...

1605571200-93PGI4e51sw.png

  • Like 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:
11:50 PM 46002: 28.95 980mb

Man, what a miss by the models. Is the low center even over the buoy yet?

  • Windy 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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