November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, puyallupjon said:

Nothing too interesting to me in the models through 12-3-2020.

Winter is slowly slipping away for us.

I just had a 11/17/08 flashback! 

[The Swamp]

Just now, MossMan said:

I just had a 11/17/08 flashback! 

don't go there

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 minutes ago, puyallupjon said:

Nothing too interesting to me in the models through 12-3-2020.

Winter is slowly slipping away for us.

Think split flow! Think death ridge! Failing that, think 50 degrees and rain! C'MON!!!

[rsktkr]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It is raining, which is unusual when compared to last November. 

Good point. I stand corrected.

[High Desert Mat?]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Means Alaska might get real cold. 

Now we really need an SSW. 

[MossMan]

We went from quite breezy to a little blustery. 

[TacomaWaWx]

I know it’s only 1:20pm but it seems like we hit our max high temp for the day of 60 Earlier. 53 currently after the front swept through. Had some gusts about 40mph today pretty on point forecasts from the euro and gfs. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Now we really need an SSW. 

I believe that event has been canceled in Austin this year. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Counted at least ten raindrops 

[Jesse]

Today's system has seemed pretty disorganized down here. Not much in the way of rain or wind.

54 currently which is the high for the day so far.

[MossMan]

I have a feeling we are moving into “bust” territory...Back to a slight breeze. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I have a feeling we are moving into “bust” territory...Back to a slight breeze. 

Stayed up till 2am watching the models.....Extremely disappointed with the storm. However, I knew it had a low chance of having high winds

 

[Jesse]

Glad we look to continue to be in a cool and active pattern for the foreseeable future. Robust valley rains and mountain snows. La nina.

[jakerepp]

Partial clearing and a little bit breezy and maybe some gusts up to 25 or so. Don't think we saw anything above 35 or maybe 40. Pretty disappointing!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Did an interesting look at first year Ninas which followed a Nino. Looked at 11 examples dating back to 1951. One clear signal was for a wet November. At SLE November's during these years averaged 142% of average monthly Precip. December also has a strong signal for being wet, January tends more toward average. February has been the wildcard month, with some very dry ones, and also some of our wettest all time. 

[Jesse]

SSW winds have finally broken through at PDX. Gusts up to 28mph, and the temp is up to 57. Warmest it's been there in almost two weeks.

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Did an interesting look at first year Ninas which followed a Nino. Looked at 11 examples dating back to 1951. One clear signal was for a wet November. At SLE November's during these years averaged 142% of average monthly Precip. December also has a strong signal for being wet, January tends more toward average. February has been the wildcard month, with some very dry ones, and also some of our wettest all time. 

Nice!

[Jesse]

It is kind of crazy how hard it seems to be for us to get a decent southerly windstorm these days. You wouldn't think a warming climate would have as much of an affect on their frequency as compared to snow and arctic airmasses.

[seattleweatherguy]

55 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I have a feeling we are moving into “bust” territory...Back to a slight breeze. 

Bust I think 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

It is kind of crazy how hard it seems to be for us to get a decent southerly windstorm these days. You wouldn't think a warming climate would have as much of an affect on their frequency as compared to snow and arctic airmasses.

Seems like lowland snowfall is easier to come by. 

[Jesse]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Seems like lowland snowfall is easier to come by. 

Maybe compared to big windstorms but not compared to how it was in the past.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Maybe compared to big windstorms but not compared to how it was in the past.

Yeah, that's what we were talking about.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Past few GFS runs have been a lot milder. 

 

[Jesse]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, that's what we were talking about.

Well Andrew we are better than ever at long heat waves and record MAX/MIN events. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Outstanding!

Northern Oregon Cascades-Cascades in Lane County-
South Washington Cascades-
Including the cities of Santiam Pass, McKenzie Pass,
Willamette Pass, and Mount St. Helens
242 PM PST Tue Nov 17 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY
TO 6 AM PST THURSDAY ABOVE 4000 FEET...

* WHAT...Snow expected above 4000 feet. Total snow accumulations
  of 10 to 20 inches, with the lower amounts closer to 4000 feet.

* WHERE...In Washington, South Washington Cascades. In Oregon,
  Northern Oregon Cascades and Cascades in Lane County.

* WHEN...From 4 AM Wednesday to 6 AM PST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heaviest snow will be Wednesday morning,
  then again Wednesday night.

[Jesse]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Past few GFS runs have been a lot milder. 

 

At least we know you are only referring to hour 300+

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Jesse, I am only out to hour 288 on the 18z. The writing is on the walllllllll!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Jesse]

Real negative atmosphere on here today.

[Timmy Supercell]

Airport actually managed a gust of 60 today.

 

[Jesse]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Jesse, I am only out to hour 288 on the 18z. The writing is on the walllllllll!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Did you just turn into the me want honeycombs creature?

[MossMan]

Don’t think I got above 20mph today. Probably blowing about 10 right now. 

[Jesse]

Andrew the 12z ensembles really weren’t to bad. Coolish, active.

[Skagit Weather]

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Well, glad we tracked that windstorm! Definitely needed a heads up on the 25 mph gusts we received. 

Can't say I wasn't prepared!

We had to get back into practice after the summer/fall so that we didn't forget how to track snow events.

[Deweydog]

8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Well, glad we tracked that windstorm! Definitely needed a heads up on the 25 mph gusts we received. 

Can't say I wasn't prepared!

But it ***<<<}}}COULD{{{>>>*** have been a lot worse if things had turned out differently.

[MossMan]

Looks like the Winthrop snow is melting as well...What a disaster today has turned into. Maybe next year!! 

[Deweydog]

Haha... Failshington County.  I just got that.  Pretty funny

[SilverFallsAndrew]

21 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Andrew the 12z ensembles really weren’t to bad. Coolish, active.

Looks like a first year Nina November!

[BLI snowman]

Screwed.

[MossMan]

PNA is looking good! Except for that one Tim member! 

[High Desert Mat?]

11 minutes ago, MossMan said:

PNA is looking good! Except for that one Tim member! 

Viagra?