Jesse Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 12Z GFS looks to be falling more into line with the Euro as far as the overall pattern. Still not as deep with the troughing but not as mild as previous runs either. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 Some snowpack on gawd emperor euro but mediocre for my place in the 10-day. Maybe the bomb low last year around Thanksgiving hexed it for 2020. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 18, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 Patience, it's coming. 1 1 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 Still well under my first full inch of snow as of November 18th. You could say both 2011 and 2010 were snowier this time of year east of the cascades. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Patience, it's coming. Do we have to wait for christmas? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 18, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 Just now, Jbolin said: Do we have to wait for christmas? It's a secret. 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 Timberline Lodge base already down to 32” from the 44” it was before this warm rain event. New GFS is honestly looking good, it’s drier than previous runs but most of the precip on it comes from cold fronts. I might get torn apart for this, but dry is better than snowpack-destroying warm rain. 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, Jbolin said: Do we have to wait for christmas? 12/26/20 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 13 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: Timberline Lodge base already down to 32” from the 44” it was before this warm rain event. New GFS is honestly looking good, it’s drier than previous runs but most of the precip on it comes from cold fronts. I might get torn apart for this, but dry is better than snowpack-destroying warm rain. Snow levels have been down around 4,000' since last night. I don't think they got much rain up at 6,000' the last few days, the decrease in depth is probably due to the snow compacting. And yes, that last opinion is absolutely wrong. Last January had a lot of "warm rain" but was killer in the mountains. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 5 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: Timberline Lodge base already down to 32” from the 44” it was before this warm rain event. New GFS is honestly looking good, it’s drier than previous runs but most of the precip on it comes from cold fronts. I might get torn apart for this, but dry is better than snowpack-destroying warm rain. It's mid-November. Snow levels fluctuating between 2-8k in late Fall isn't unheard of. Plus, most windstorm events are not exactly favorable for keeping snowpack. 2 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 Live shot of the warm rain event at Timberline Lodge. 1 2 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 I feel like there is something wrong with the Stevens Pass summit temp sensor. I don’t think the road would be that snow covered at 34 degrees. Especially since DOT is always on top of clearing/treating that road. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 Today is day 7 in a row with rainfall here...and we’ve had 14 rainfall days this month. The last 2 weeks have been our wettest stretch of weather since January. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 Man this year is not off to a good start. Some parts of Norcal and the Central Valley look to have their driest Oct-Nov ever recorded. Some areas are in the 0 - .05" range. Not a good start after coming off of the driest winter ever recorded for the north coast regions. Long range shows nothing for at least 10 or more days as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 18, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, MossMan said: I feel like there is something wrong with the Stevens Pass summit temp sensor. I don’t think the road would be that snow covered at 34 degrees. Especially since DOT is always on top of clearing/treating that road. We had snow-covered roads at 34F during and after 2-25-19. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 1 minute ago, AlTahoe said: Man this year is not off to a good start. Some parts of Norcal and the Central Valley look to have their driest Oct-Nov ever recorded. Some areas are in the 0 - .05" range. Not a good start after coming off of the driest winter ever recorded for the north coast regions. Long range shows nothing for at least 10 or more days as well. Best start to the season in over a decade for the mountains up here. It's too bad CA can't catch a break lately. We were down in the Bass Lake area in June, really enjoyed the beauty of those Sierra Foothills. That whole area burned in a massive fire later in the summer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: We had snow-covered roads at 34F during and after 2-25-19. Just has that drier looking/compact snow and ice look to it. Seems like that sensor has been running warm. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, MossMan said: Just has that drier looking/compact snow and ice look to it. Seems like that sensor has been running warm. I agree that it looks too powdery and frozen to be 34 degree snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 This fall has been warmer and wetter than the last 2. We had 7.29” total rainfall in the fall of 2018 and 8.70” last fall...#1 and #2 driest autumns back to back. So far we’re at 10.54” this fall and will probably end up close to 12”. This fall will likely be a couple degrees warmer in terms of average tempature as well. Winters only 12 days away! Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 Nice area of moderate precip moving into the metro area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said: This fall has been warmer and wetter than the last 2. We had 7.29” total rainfall in the fall of 2018 and 8.70” last fall...#1 and #2 driest autumns back to back. So far we’re at 10.54” this fall and will probably end up close to 12”. This fall will likely be a couple degrees warmer in terms of average tempature as well. Mid-November so far has turned things around a bit. But yeah early Fall was bone dry. This was my second October in a row pretty close to zero precip and my Sep-Oct 60 day group was near top 5 dry tier. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 Just now, Timmy_Supercell said: Mid-November so far has turned things around a bit. But yeah early Fall was bone dry. This was my second October in a row pretty close to zero precip and my Sep-Oct 60 day group was near top 5 dry tier. Must’ve been nice getting almost an inch of rain the other day. September was a bit above average precip here October slightly below normal. Key difference this fall compared to the last 2 is November being pretty wet finally. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 Just now, TacomaWaWx said: Must’ve been nice getting almost an inch of rain the other day. September was a bit above average precip here October slightly below normal. Key difference this fall compared to the last 2 is November being pretty wet finally. I don't think it did more than sprinkle in September. lol At least Sep 2019 featured a few good rains and a moist thunderstorm around 09/15. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 GFS ensembles get kinda ugly in the long range Andrew. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 7 minutes ago, Jesse said: GFS ensembles get kinda ugly in the long range Andrew. I wonder if the LR is screwy and gross due to the next trade wind burst? Mid/late Novembers tend to be very moist/mossy. I sometimes long for that inevitable inversion period that rears it's ugly face around the Nov 28th to Dec 5th timeframe, just to dry out a bit. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 7 minutes ago, Jbolin said: I wonder if the LR is screwy and gross due to the next trade wind burst? Mid/late Novembers tend to be very moist/mossy. I sometimes long for that inevitable inversion period that rears it's ugly face around the Nov 28th to Dec 5th timeframe, just to dry out a bit. Not what I meant. The wet is great. Just don’t like the warmer than average. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 12z Euro already looks wetter through hour 144 than the GFS is through day 10. Better mountain snow too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 39 minutes ago, Jesse said: GFS ensembles get kinda ugly in the long range Andrew. Not a surprise. The GFS has gone to hell the past 24 hours. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 Hoping we can maybe manage a thunderstorm today. Haven’t had any nearby lightning since 10/13 when we had a real nice thunderstorm roll through. At the very least some more heavy rain would be nice. 1 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Not a surprise. The GFS has gone to hell the past 24 hours. Improvement on the 12z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 17 years ago right now it was quite warm out. The next morning it was not. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, Deweydog said: 17 years ago right now it was quite warm out. The next morning it was not. A defining weenie event for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 11 minutes ago, Deweydog said: 17 years ago right now it was quite warm out. The next morning it was not. Looked like we had a midnight high temp up here. I think that might have been the day I was out mowing fairways at the golf course and the rain turned to a rain/snow mix...It was cold on my face. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 24 minutes ago, MossMan said: Looked like we had a midnight high temp up here. I think that might have been the day I was out mowing fairways at the golf course and the rain turned to a rain/snow mix. It went from close to 60 degrees the night before to snowing an inch or two by morning here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 It is actually windier and stormier this morning compared to yesterday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 5 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: It is actually windier and stormier this morning compared to yesterday. Nice big cell over the west metro on radar. Moving this way soon. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 0.17” so far today. Looks like some heavy rain is moving in from the SW as well. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 Think my time for thunders are over until next spring. Ya'all give me something to chew on until it snows Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 1 minute ago, Timmy_Supercell said: Think my time for thunders are over until next spring. Ya'all give me something to chew on until it snows I can send you some of this steak I'm about to reheat for lunch. It was pretty good last night with a cilantro lime sauce. 1 Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 6 minutes ago, Jesse said: Nice big cell over the west metro on radar. Moving this way soon. Yep, I’m getting absolutely drenched right now. Feels nice. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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