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November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


TigerWoodsLibido

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Regarding LR models right now: wavelengths are short enough to circumvent detection in ensemble means from the present initialization, so these long range conglomerations appear to depict mature wavetrains when in reality it will end up much messier. 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Regarding LR models right now: wavelengths are short enough in this regime to circumvent detection in ensemble means, so these long range conglomerations appear to depict mature wavetrains when in reality it will end up much messier. 

😱

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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lurk here mainly fall and winter when the weather is interesting. i like jesse because he calls out the guy who always posts dry maps and says, "what? i posted a map showing snow last week? what?" . side note - haven't seen that guy much, so we're probably in for an interesting winter. lol

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4 minutes ago, fubario said:

lurk here mainly fall and winter when the weather is interesting. i like jesse because he calls out the guy who always posts dry maps and says, "what? i posted a map showing snow last week? what?" . side note - haven't seen that guy much, so we're probably in for an interesting winter. lol

He is busy watching Fox News. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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My goodness those EURO weeklies were fun! Thanks for posting all!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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6 minutes ago, fubario said:

lurk here mainly fall and winter when the weather is interesting. i like jesse because he calls out the guy who always posts dry maps and says, "what? i posted a map showing snow last week? what?" . side note - haven't seen that guy much, so we're probably in for an interesting winter. lol

I ❤ that guy and his maps.

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Just now, fubario said:

interesting. would've guessed cnn

I think he watches both. So he can be perpetually outraged. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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21 minutes ago, Phil said:

Regarding LR models right now: wavelengths are short enough to circumvent detection in ensemble means from the present initialization, so these long range conglomerations appear to depict mature wavetrains when in reality it will end up much messier. 

Phil, when will the long range conglomerations hit my house?

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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44F with an occasional shower. Nice smoke on the porch. I have a laser light shower and blow the smoke into it. Looks pretty badass, esp when raindrops are falling through it with tiny refractions.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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😬

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

44F with an occasional shower. Nice smoke on the porch. I have a laser light shower and blow the smoke into it. Looks pretty badass, esp when raindrops are falling through it with tiny refractions.

I really feel like we need a dude with bloodshot eyes giving a thumbs up react.

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5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

 

😬


The EPS is even stronger. Lol.

However, good news is the EPS mean has a *weaker than average* vortex by New Years. 😱

image.thumb.jpeg.abbb0fb21e41e35917d96da933ea68df.jpeg

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Obviously a bifurcation in there somewhere. One EPS cluster continues with the zonal regime/lack of wave driving, the other cluster attacks the vortex and develops some legit blocking by mid-winter.

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Just now, Phil said:


I was just about to post that. Yikes is right. The EPS is even stronger.

However, good news is the EPS has a *weaker than average* vortex by January. 😱

image.thumb.jpeg.abbb0fb21e41e35917d96da933ea68df.jpeg

I saw that tweet as well. Certainly not worried with -ENSO and +QBO here since we can get Canadian cold w/o direct PV influence, but it would be really nice to see some of those lower than average anomalies come into the closer timeframe.

Additionally, the average is likely being weighed down somewhat by those super unrealistically weak members.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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In the early 2000’s I hated Tim when we were first on the OFA and Yahoo forums...But it wasn’t long before I started liking him. Jesse and I’s relationship has been a lot more bumpy...But I don’t really dislike anyone on here except for that Sounder dude. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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I really wish we could have some get-together or zoom call or something so that we could understand one another’s personalities better.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

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Just now, MossMan said:

In the early 2000’s I hated Tim when we were first on the OFA and Yahoo forums...But it wasn’t long before I started liking him. Jesse and I’s relationship has been a lot more bumpy...But I don’t really dislike anyone on here except for that Sounder dude. 

I don’t dislike you but you can annoy me pretty bad sometimes. I’m sure the feeling is mutual.

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Just now, Meatyorologist said:

I saw that tweet as well. Certainly not worried with -ENSO and +QBO here since we can get Canadian cold w/o direct PV influence, but it would be really nice to see some of those lower than average anomalies come into the closer timeframe.

Additionally, the average is likely being weighed down somewhat by those super unrealistically weak members.

Yeah, doesn’t need to be a SSW or anything crazy to have lasting impacts on the pattern. Would certainly help to avoid another record smashing PV, though.

If it’s a super massive black hole sitting over the pole, sometimes it can overwhelm the system even with +QBO/Niña as a low pass regime. It’s uncommon but can happen..1975/76 is a classic case.

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Just now, Phil said:

Yeah, doesn’t need to be a SSW or anything crazy to have lasting impacts on the pattern. Would certainly help to avoid another record smashing PV, though.

If it’s a super massive black hole sitting over the pole, sometimes it can overwhelm the system even with +QBO/Niña as a low pass regime. It’s uncommon but can happen..1975/76 is a classic case.

Purely amateur opinion here, but I don't think the PV will be nearly as record smashing or influential as the 75-76 season. That was almost freakish. You could probably find a million reasons to tell me how wrong I am for that, though.

I'm sure that up in our neck of the woods we'll at least find a way to squeak in some kind of significant arctic influence before this winter is all set and done, especially given that earlier in the month when the PV wasn't nearly as oppressive, the atmosphere produced favorable blocking patterns ad nauseum. Just needs some more wiggle room. It will come.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Purely amateur opinion here, but I don't think the PV will be nearly as record smashing or influential as the 75-76 season. That was almost freakish. You could probably find a million reasons to tell me how wrong I am for that, though.

I'm sure that up in our neck of the woods we'll at least find a way to squeak in some kind of significant arctic influence before this winter is all set and done, especially given that earlier in the month when the PV wasn't nearly as oppressive, the atmosphere produced favorable blocking patterns ad nauseum. Just needs some more wiggle room. It will come.

Oh I agree with you, generally speaking. My forecast this winter is cold NW/warm SE for a DJF seasonal mean. And I’m sticking with that.

Question is, are we going to see something “freakish” upstairs this winter, as well? I have to admit the complete lack of heat flux thus far has me on edge (only comparable EP analogs are 1999 and 2011) but it’s very early, and there’s essentially zero sample size.

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1 hour ago, Jginmartini said:

48 and sitting at my low so far for the day 44*

All those fun showers today sort of fell apart over my area. Although I still got a few good showers along with some gusty winds.

Sitting at 4.43 inches of rain for the month.  

5.41” on the month here just a few miles west. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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35 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I don’t dislike you but you can annoy me pretty bad sometimes. I’m sure the feeling is mutual.

It is!! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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51 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

5.41” on the month here just a few miles west 

Watching those nice juicy shower approach from the south always seem to slide by just to my West, East or break apart.  As you know my gauge hasn’t been reliable as of late either. Tried moving it to 2 new location and the same.  So I’ve been using a neighbors readings as theirs is more inline with the local area.  Your still kicking my BuTt in the rain business though!

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