Phil Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 Regarding LR models right now: wavelengths are short enough to circumvent detection in ensemble means from the present initialization, so these long range conglomerations appear to depict mature wavetrains when in reality it will end up much messier. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 1 minute ago, Phil said: Regarding LR models right now: wavelengths are short enough in this regime to circumvent detection in ensemble means, so these long range conglomerations appear to depict mature wavetrains when in reality it will end up much messier. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fubario Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 lurk here mainly fall and winter when the weather is interesting. i like jesse because he calls out the guy who always posts dry maps and says, "what? i posted a map showing snow last week? what?" . side note - haven't seen that guy much, so we're probably in for an interesting winter. lol 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, fubario said: lurk here mainly fall and winter when the weather is interesting. i like jesse because he calls out the guy who always posts dry maps and says, "what? i posted a map showing snow last week? what?" . side note - haven't seen that guy much, so we're probably in for an interesting winter. lol He is busy watching Fox News. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 My goodness those EURO weeklies were fun! Thanks for posting all! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fubario Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: He is busy watching Fox News. interesting. would've guessed cnn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 6 minutes ago, fubario said: lurk here mainly fall and winter when the weather is interesting. i like jesse because he calls out the guy who always posts dry maps and says, "what? i posted a map showing snow last week? what?" . side note - haven't seen that guy much, so we're probably in for an interesting winter. lol I ❤ that guy and his maps. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 Just now, fubario said: interesting. would've guessed cnn I think he watches both. So he can be perpetually outraged. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 21 minutes ago, Phil said: Regarding LR models right now: wavelengths are short enough to circumvent detection in ensemble means from the present initialization, so these long range conglomerations appear to depict mature wavetrains when in reality it will end up much messier. Phil, when will the long range conglomerations hit my house? Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 44F with an occasional shower. Nice smoke on the porch. I have a laser light shower and blow the smoke into it. Looks pretty badass, esp when raindrops are falling through it with tiny refractions. 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: 44F with an occasional shower. Nice smoke on the porch. I have a laser light shower and blow the smoke into it. Looks pretty badass, esp when raindrops are falling through it with tiny refractions. I really feel like we need a dude with bloodshot eyes giving a thumbs up react. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: The EPS is even stronger. Lol. However, good news is the EPS mean has a *weaker than average* vortex by New Years. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 Obviously a bifurcation in there somewhere. One EPS cluster continues with the zonal regime/lack of wave driving, the other cluster attacks the vortex and develops some legit blocking by mid-winter. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 Just now, Phil said: I was just about to post that. Yikes is right. The EPS is even stronger. However, good news is the EPS has a *weaker than average* vortex by January. I saw that tweet as well. Certainly not worried with -ENSO and +QBO here since we can get Canadian cold w/o direct PV influence, but it would be really nice to see some of those lower than average anomalies come into the closer timeframe. Additionally, the average is likely being weighed down somewhat by those super unrealistically weak members. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 In the early 2000’s I hated Tim when we were first on the OFA and Yahoo forums...But it wasn’t long before I started liking him. Jesse and I’s relationship has been a lot more bumpy...But I don’t really dislike anyone on here except for that Sounder dude. 1 3 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 I really wish we could have some get-together or zoom call or something so that we could understand one another’s personalities better. 8 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 Just now, MossMan said: In the early 2000’s I hated Tim when we were first on the OFA and Yahoo forums...But it wasn’t long before I started liking him. Jesse and I’s relationship has been a lot more bumpy...But I don’t really dislike anyone on here except for that Sounder dude. I don’t dislike you but you can annoy me pretty bad sometimes. I’m sure the feeling is mutual. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 Just now, Meatyorologist said: I saw that tweet as well. Certainly not worried with -ENSO and +QBO here since we can get Canadian cold w/o direct PV influence, but it would be really nice to see some of those lower than average anomalies come into the closer timeframe. Additionally, the average is likely being weighed down somewhat by those super unrealistically weak members. Yeah, doesn’t need to be a SSW or anything crazy to have lasting impacts on the pattern. Would certainly help to avoid another record smashing PV, though. If it’s a super massive black hole sitting over the pole, sometimes it can overwhelm the system even with +QBO/Niña as a low pass regime. It’s uncommon but can happen..1975/76 is a classic case. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: I really wish we could have some get-together or zoom call or something so that we could understand one another’s personalities better. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 Just now, Phil said: Yeah, doesn’t need to be a SSW or anything crazy to have lasting impacts on the pattern. Would certainly help to avoid another record smashing PV, though. If it’s a super massive black hole sitting over the pole, sometimes it can overwhelm the system even with +QBO/Niña as a low pass regime. It’s uncommon but can happen..1975/76 is a classic case. Purely amateur opinion here, but I don't think the PV will be nearly as record smashing or influential as the 75-76 season. That was almost freakish. You could probably find a million reasons to tell me how wrong I am for that, though. I'm sure that up in our neck of the woods we'll at least find a way to squeak in some kind of significant arctic influence before this winter is all set and done, especially given that earlier in the month when the PV wasn't nearly as oppressive, the atmosphere produced favorable blocking patterns ad nauseum. Just needs some more wiggle room. It will come. 3 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Purely amateur opinion here, but I don't think the PV will be nearly as record smashing or influential as the 75-76 season. That was almost freakish. You could probably find a million reasons to tell me how wrong I am for that, though. I'm sure that up in our neck of the woods we'll at least find a way to squeak in some kind of significant arctic influence before this winter is all set and done, especially given that earlier in the month when the PV wasn't nearly as oppressive, the atmosphere produced favorable blocking patterns ad nauseum. Just needs some more wiggle room. It will come. Oh I agree with you, generally speaking. My forecast this winter is cold NW/warm SE for a DJF seasonal mean. And I’m sticking with that. Question is, are we going to see something “freakish” upstairs this winter, as well? I have to admit the complete lack of heat flux thus far has me on edge (only comparable EP analogs are 1999 and 2011) but it’s very early, and there’s essentially zero sample size. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 1 hour ago, Jginmartini said: 48 and sitting at my low so far for the day 44* All those fun showers today sort of fell apart over my area. Although I still got a few good showers along with some gusty winds. Sitting at 4.43 inches of rain for the month. 5.41” on the month here just a few miles west. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 Some good rainfall here this evening. Up to .75” on the day. Down to 45 degrees too. Nice to know it is dumping snow above 3,500 right now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 28 hours and 20 minutes to go. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 00z GFS Day 1 Just say NO to ridging or split-flow. I really want to keep this NO-RIDGE November going. Day 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 35 minutes ago, Jesse said: I don’t dislike you but you can annoy me pretty bad sometimes. I’m sure the feeling is mutual. It is!! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 I think the incredible blocking pattern we saw in October will come back before Christmas. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 Day 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 Day 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 Day 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 Day 5 (Past 4 runs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 5 (Past 4 runs) North Pacific View Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 Day 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 6 Slowly trending more towards the Euro again after its habitual mid range acid bender. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 Day 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 Day 8 Not a fan. I'll take the model runs we had 2-3 days ago. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: I really wish we could have some get-together or zoom call or something so that we could understand one another’s personalities better. Crown Point next big east wind event? 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 I wonder how many changes we'll see in 2-3 days (Friday/Saturday 00z runs) Probably quite a bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 51 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: 5.41” on the month here just a few miles west Watching those nice juicy shower approach from the south always seem to slide by just to my West, East or break apart. As you know my gauge hasn’t been reliable as of late either. Tried moving it to 2 new location and the same. So I’ve been using a neighbors readings as theirs is more inline with the local area. Your still kicking my BuTt in the rain business though! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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