November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Last white Christmas here was 2015. We had about 6" on the ground. In 2016 it melted right before Christmas and then snowed on the 26th. 

[Timmy Supercell]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Last white Christmas here was 2015. We had about 6" on the ground. In 2016 it melted right before Christmas and then snowed on the 26th. 

I had one in 2018 and 2019. But I have seen quite a handful of bare New Years days/eves. It can happen in the best of winters so a pretty random thing. lol

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, Timmy_Supercell said:

I had one in 2018 and 2019. But I have seen quite a handful of bare New Years days/eves. It can happen in the best of winters so a pretty random thing. lol

Seems like right around and after the new year I have some good memories of events here in 03-04 & 16-17.

[Timmy Supercell]

4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Seems like right around and after the new year I have some good memories of events here in 03-04 & 16-17.

This was 12/31/2016. Nobody would guess 72-96 hours later the snow would pile 20 inches deep. It sure surprised a lot of locals.

[Deweydog]

Snow was MELTING slowly at this time 17 years ago.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

This was 12/31/2016. Nobody would guess 72-96 hours later the snow would pile 20 inches deep. It sure surprised a lot of locals.

That was a nice day here. 32/23 so pretty cold, but sunny until evening. Started snowing around 10pm and we ended up with nearly 8” total by the time it wound down the next day. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Had a nice round of rain come through earlier up to 0.48” on the day. 

[Timmy Supercell]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That was a nice day here. 32/23 so pretty cold, but sunny until evening. Started snowing around 10pm and we ended up with nearly 8” total by the time it wound down the next day. 

Some snow was falling, heavy at times even, but no more than about 1/2". Jan 3rd was when things got real, especially by late that evening. Some rates of 1.5-2" per hour from 9-10pm to 5am on the 4th.

I remember Medford getting a nice storm out of that one same night.

I don't know why reports maxed at around 12.5" in town, everybody here on Facebook was saying they had close to 2 feet. It was 12" at midnight and continued to snow several more inches when folks were sleeping.
NWS was a bit quick on listing event totals.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I wanna say there were about 5"-7" down this way with one of those events.

[Timmy Supercell]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I wanna say there were about 5"-7" down this way with one of those events.

I know Portland's storm was a week after mine. That's another thing impressive about '16-'17, two equally big storms on opposite sides of the state happening within a week of each other. And Pendleton CWA getting a pretty cold December just before that. For some reason Dec 2016 was a tad warmer at my location.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I know Portland's storm was a week after mine. That's another thing impressive about '16-'17, two equally big storms on opposite sides of the state happening within a week of each other. And Pendleton CWA getting a pretty cold December just before that. For some reason Dec 2016 was a tad warmer at my location.

16-17 spread the wealth about the best of any year in the 2010s.

[luminen]

It was kinda sunny (hey I'll take what I can get, it's been dark the past few days) this morning but now it's cloudy with light drizzle.

Need more ridging and 11C temps! 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The ballgame should start out dry but the 4th quarter might be rainy.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Yuck.  On the other hand cold ENSO can favor a strong Pacific High.  Might be a battle between the two.  I think the biggest reason we have had such hot summers this century so far is the simple fact the Pacific High hasn't been as dominant as it was much of the time in the past.  When it is more dominant it keeps the 4CH in check.

One could argue argue an expanded Hadley Cell/wide ITCZ would favor a stronger 4CH and weaker NPAC High. Might be the common denominator.

[Deweydog]

Summer forecasts in November are a great sign for winter.

[Omegaraptor]

48 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

This was 12/31/2016. Nobody would guess 72-96 hours later the snow would pile 20 inches deep. It sure surprised a lot of locals.

I was in Sunriver around Christmas 2016. It was a winter wonderland and got down to -7ºF one morning. Probably the best timed vacation I've ever been on. I'm surprised the ground was bare in Klamath on 12/31.

During the Jan 4-7 cold/snow event Sunriver had an 8/2 day followed by 17/-13. The -13 wasn't too impressive compared to other areas in Deschutes and Klamath county but the high of 8 was.

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Have not looked at the EPS recently... here is the 12Z run.    

Lots of red.

[Timmy Supercell]

3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

I was in Sunriver around Christmas 2016. It was a winter wonderland and got down to -7ºF one morning. Probably the best timed vacation I've ever been on. I'm surprised the ground was bare in Klamath on 12/31.

During the Jan 4-7 cold/snow event Sunriver had an 8/2 day followed by 17/-13. The -13 wasn't too impressive compared to other areas in Deschutes and Klamath county but the high of 8 was.

Depths are harder to maintain here. We maxed at about 21-22" pack in the yard, only shortly after that were getting some cold rains between our snows. It didn't take long for the depth to go back around one foot or under.

[SouthHillFrosty]

November Forecast:

 

December Forecast: 

January:

 

[MossMan]

Well since this winter season is an apparent write off with bad Hadley cells and terrible WHAM numbers...What should we talk about now? 

[Weather1011]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Well since this winter season is an apparent write off with bad Hadley cells and terrible WHAM numbers...What should we talk about now? 

Trees? Early seasonal bloom?

[luminen]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

November Forecast:

 

December Forecast: 

January:

 

Lock it in!

Can't wait till my friends in Portland can get temps in the 90s again.

[Omegaraptor]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Well since this winter season is an apparent write off with bad Hadley cells and terrible WHAM numbers...What should we talk about now? 

First 60 and 70 of 2021?

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF weeklies continue to like the final third of December for a return to cold weather.  Decent signal on the mean and a very amplified look on the control.

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, Weather1011 said:

Warming climate.

 

2 hours ago, Weather1011 said:

Warming climate.

Could be cyclical too...just like the run of warm Januaries we have had since 1980.  I have no reason to believe that is anything other than a cycle when you look at how the other winter months have managed top tier cold in that time.

[snow_wizard]

I think the PNA projections on the Euro weeklies sum it up best.  The mean shows a steady fall through much of December.  If the control has its way things might get going faster.

 

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

First 60 and 70 of 2021?

January is always a lock for heat! 

[snow_wizard]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I think the PNA projections on the Euro weeklies sum it up best.  The mean shows a steady fall through much of December.  If the control has its way things might get going faster.

 

 

[Weather1011]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

 

Could be cyclical too...just like the run of warm Januaries we have had since 1980.  I have no reason to believe that is anything other than a cycle when you look at how the other winter months have managed top tier cold in that time.

I think a warming climate around the world makes more sense.

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Our good window for big snow events really seems to be about January 1-March 25th. It seems like once we get into February/March it doesn't take much for snow here, whereas earlier in the winter, especially before say January 10th, it takes a really significant trough/airmass to deliver meaningful snowfall. 

In a decade up here we have had about 5 4"+ snow events before January 10th. Whereas we have had in the range of 15-20 such events later on. 

It takes a different setup to bring snow for the valleys than it does where you live.  You also have to consider January has not been normal since 1980.  Before that it was a much different animal.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Weather1011 said:

I think a warming climate around the world makes more sense.

Time will tell, and as always the reason it's been warmer is in question.  Solar influence is just as possible as man caused warming.  If it's the former we should be just fine going forward.

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, Weather1011 said:

I think a warming climate around the world makes more sense.

Warming temperatures alone don’t explain the change in circulation. They’re definitely related (on both ends of the cause/effect spectrum), though. Mostly indirectly and nonlinearly.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Warming temperatures alone don’t explain the change in circulation. They’re definitely connected (on both ends of the cause/effect spectrum), though.

Hopefully the solar grand minimum will begin to cool things off over the next few years so we can put some of the world is on fire because of mankind narrative to bed.  I'm not sure if you've seen it yet, but the NOAA projections for the next solar cycle show a decade of nearly no activity.  I couldn't believe it when I saw the source data.  That would be something to see.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Speaking of the Euro weeklies . . .

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Suns back out again. Nice mix of rain, ice pellets and sunshine today up to 0.50”. 

[Timmy Supercell]

51 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

I was in Sunriver around Christmas 2016. It was a winter wonderland and got down to -7ºF one morning. Probably the best timed vacation I've ever been on. I'm surprised the ground was bare in Klamath on 12/31.

During the Jan 4-7 cold/snow event Sunriver had an 8/2 day followed by 17/-13. The -13 wasn't too impressive compared to other areas in Deschutes and Klamath county but the high of 8 was.

Here's a comparison from Jan 7th to 8th. I think it was 40-42 degrees with showers on the 8th.

 

[mjb]

3 hours ago, RentonHillTC said:

Can you recommend a specific one? My initial searches for a wired one are yielding poor results. I dont think it believes me and wants to keep showing wireless ones, or just 200 dollar replacement ones for the 800 dollar Davis package i dont have. 

Check out PEET BROS .... Their units are all hard wired... had one for over 15 years before it bit the dust.               https://www.peetbros.com/shop/

[Phil]

+EAMT/AAM spike coming up late November into the start of December.

In this case, we get a temporary +PNA/GOA trough response, kinda reminiscent of a strong niño.

Transitions to +EPO/+NPO/-PNA and by the middle of December.

In both cases, the vast majority of the country torches (possibly the entire lower-48), and there’s no arctic air in sight yet. Not even modified arctic air.

[Phil]

32 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Hopefully the solar grand minimum will begin to cool things off over the next few years so we can put some of the world is on fire because of mankind narrative to bed.  I'm not sure if you've seen it yet, but the NOAA projections for the next solar cycle show a decade of nearly no activity.  I couldn't believe it when I saw the source data.  That would be something to see.

Based on polar field strength, SC25 should be similar to SC24 in amplitude. Assuming that method works.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

18 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Latest ECMWF weeklies from last night reinforce the idea of a ridgy start to December, and maintain a better looking pattern for the second half of the month and into the new year. Good timing for Christmas still.

Edit: Woops, just saw Brian #2 posted them already. Oh well. Double dosage.

Thanks for posting those.  I do like the WB graphics better than weathermodels.  Same map, but just a better presentation.