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November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


TigerWoodsLibido

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3 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Nature sure has gotten a good dose of us humans this past year thanks to covid and social media post of our beautiful area! 

A good dose of garbage and disrespect too sadly. The good thing is most people only go to a handful of locations that are well advertised on social media. It's not very hard to still find remote spots if you know where to look. We are very fortunate to have millions of acres of public land in Oregon and Washington.

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5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Going to be positively boring for the next few weeks. 

5730E0EF-7E10-47BD-9127-5FA87BC06F07.jpeg

What's a late fall/ early winter without a chilly inversion period. Doesn't seem like we really had one last year.

I feel ok about this since we have already gotten some active weather under our belts. And I'm sure it will turn pretty active again later on.

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Gfs and euro aren’t too far apart in terms of rainfall to finish the month. Should finish with 7-7.5” of rainfall this month if they verify. Last few days of the month look dry on both models. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Jesse said:

A good dose of garbage and disrespect too sadly. The good thing is most people only go to a handful of locations that are well advertised on social media. It's not very hard to still find remote spots if you know where to look. We are very fortunate to have millions of acres of public land in Oregon and Washington.

Yeah, some of the busiest spots have been pretty disgusting, but honestly most spots have been cared for pretty well. I went on more than 40 hikes in the Cascades this summer and only on 3 of them were there so many people that I felt like I couldn't find peace and solitude. Most of them I saw less than a few dozen people and more than 50% I saw less than 10.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Wow. Down to 34 at PDX while it’s 39 here. Pretty unusual for them to be colder than this location. There must be some clearing overhead there allowing for radiational cooling/ground fog. We’ve got more of a low cloud deck up here.

Dang hasn’t been below 40 here in over a week. Much milder nights this fall here at this location compared to last fall. So far we’ve had 1 freeze and 12 nights into the 30s this autumn. Last fall we had 6 freezes and 27 nights into the 30s. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Dang hasn’t been below 40 here in over a week. Much milder nights this fall here at this location compared to last fall. So far we’ve had 1 freeze and 12 nights into the 30s this autumn. Last fall we had 6 freezes and 27 nights into the 30s. 

Well yeah late September through October was one of our coldest such periods on record last year with way more frosts and freezes than normal. What you are seeing this year is probably a lot more normal for you location, seems to take an act of Congress to get you down to freezing :D

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3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Well yeah late September through October was one of our coldest such periods on record last year with way more frosts and freezes than normal. What you are seeing this year is probably a lot more normal for you location, seems to take an act of Congress to get you down to freezing :D

Usually we have more than 1 freeze at this point...last fall was a bit unusual but this one’s definitely been on the milder side. Looking like each month was 1-2 degrees warmer on avg. compared to last year...but atleast it’s been decently wet and our best early mountain snowpack in awhile. I’m ok with fall being mild as 2008 and 2016 were both pretty mild too. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Just now, Jesse said:

A good dose of garbage and disrespect too sadly. The good thing us most people only go to a handfull of locations that are well advertised on social media. It's not very hard to still find remote spots if you know where to look. We are very fortunate to have millions of acres of public land in Oregon and Washington.

Sadly the the garbage has been pretty unreal :( but on the positive note many good souls cleaning up the messes.  We are everywhere and we do care earnestly.  As for those who disrespect we can only hope they will mature and become future caretakers.  Still frustrating but it is what it is.  Amen to millions of acres of remote land where animals can do their thing :)

 

44*

 

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1 hour ago, Jesse said:

06z GFS shows a pretty classic chilly inversion pattern developing in the long range.

As long as things turn more active again at some point in December (likely IMO) I’m ok with this progression for now.

I agree.  It's nice to mix things up and chilly inversions can nicely pad a cold winter average....assuming we end up with a cold winter overall.  1984 - 85 had a lot of inversion cold and a lot of true cold as an example.  My area can do exceptionally well in inversions as long as the easterly gradient isn't strong enough to wipe out the inversion.  Once those things get going the gradient can get pretty strong and yet the inversion stays locked in.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Usually we have more than 1 freeze at this point...last fall was a bit unusual but this one’s definitely been on the milder side. Looking like each month was 1-2 degrees warmer on avg. compared to last year...but atleast it’s been decently wet and our best early mountain snowpack in awhile. I’m ok with fall being mild as 2008 and 2016 were both pretty mild too. 

The things is October 20 through Nov 10 was not mild at all.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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8 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Bold call, but the models are certainly looking interesting as we get into that time frame.

In the shorter term the GFS and ECMWF are finally indicating potential for a cold / foggy inversion with high pressure right on top of us somewhere in the 7 to 15 day period.  Most seasons get something like that eventually.  I always like a week or so of that.

Pattern gets more favorable for the NW during the 2nd or 3rd week of December, extrapolating tropical forcing out of IO, thru IPWP. I think I made a more detailed post on this a few weeks ago.

Exactly how favorable..I’m not sure. If we can get some ET wave breaking going, then it could be interesting. Worst case, it’s normal-ish temps under zonal flow/AK vortex. 

 

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10 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Usually we have more than 1 freeze at this point...last fall was a bit unusual but this one’s definitely been on the milder side. Looking like each month was 1-2 degrees warmer on avg. compared to last year...but atleast it’s been decently wet and our best early mountain snowpack in awhile. I’m ok with fall being mild as 2008 and 2016 were both pretty mild too. 

The generally cool and active weather, ample frosts and freezes for most locations, and nice early season mountain snowpack would keep me from calling this fall mild overall.

The first half of fall was definitely warm this year, but around mid October we saw that pattern change and it's generally been cooler than normal since then.

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6 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Down to 32F for freeze #14 on the season.

Listening to some chill-synthwave music watching the GFS roll out, yeah it's gonna be a shitt run, but they'll be getting better. Just need a cool-looking neon sign for the window.

You're kicking my butt on freezing low temps.  We've had so much more cloud cover up here.  On the other hand I've had way more highs below 50.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The things is October 20 through Nov 10 was not mild at all.

Yea but I’m talking about the whole fall not a 3 week period. In terms of average temp each month was above normal to a certain extent at this location. Even in the October 20th-November 10th period we had some mild weather...3 days in the low to mid 60s in the first week of November. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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23 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Wow. Down to 34 at PDX while it’s 39 here. Pretty unusual for them to be colder than this location. There must be some clearing overhead there allowing for radiational cooling/ground fog. We’ve got more of a low cloud deck up here.

It has cleared out, good thing the kid pooped on my curtains so I could put up the light blocking ones.

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5 minutes ago, Kayla said:

GEFS control shows a strong retrogression signal beginning on Dec 9-10th with all the major players locking in the cold air with Arctic intrusions into the Northwest leading up to Christmas. This is just about the ideal scenario IMO!

1857214243_ScreenShot2020-11-20at9_25_48AM.thumb.png.c254211a78ec8e2148a6f0d4e8730198.png

1423729823_ScreenShot2020-11-20at9_31_26AM.thumb.png.7ea49293dd92f3cf2d5b0c5c252f3ab8.png

This has been a theme with many of the models.  At this point we want to see it hold off for a while longer.  With a Nina the longer things hold off the better it is when we get there.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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31 minutes ago, Jesse said:

What's a late fall/ early winter without a chilly inversion period. Doesn't seem like we really had one last year.

I feel ok about this since we have already gotten some active weather under our belts. And I'm sure it will turn pretty active again later on.

GOA vortex/zonal flow can also project onto EOF for +PNA.

Doesn’t have to be a stagnant pattern. Though this one probably will be.

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3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

The generally cool and active weather, ample frosts and freezes for most locations, and nice early season mountain snowpack would keep me from calling this fall mild overall.

The first half of fall was definitely warm this year, but around mid October we saw that pattern change and it's generally been cooler than normal since then.

September and October were both above normal September more so. November probably won’t be too much warmer than normal but still just slightly above here. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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18 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

September and October were both above normal September more so. November probably won’t be too much warmer than normal but still just slightly above here. 

Yeah but if you are talking November 2008 and 2016 those were on a different level in terms of warmth. And of course October ended up a little warm because the chilly second half wasn't quite enough to offset the super torchy first half.

Depending on if we get some chilly inversions to end the month it is possible November ends up slightly below average down here. PDX is only +0.2 through yesterday. Would be their second below average month this year, March being the other one.

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7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This has been a theme with many of the models.  At this point we want to see it hold off for a while longer.  With a Nina the longer things hold off the better it is when we get there.

Why? Arctic air source is plenty cold by mid December and you'd be optimzing the lowest sun angles and daylight hours in that timeframe.

I'll still never understand why people feel the need to want Arctic air intrusions to "wait" for a more historic timeframe. When you live in the PNW you take what you can get and a mid December cold air intrusion is just about ideal IMO.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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9 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yea but I’m talking about the whole fall not a 3 week period. In terms of average temp each month was above normal to a certain extent at this location. Even in the October 20th-November 10th period we had some mild weather...3 days in the low to mid 60s in the first week of November. 

I was lucky with the early November warmth.  I had freezing low temps to offset the warm days.  All in all that 3 week period was solidly cold.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Why? Arctic air source is plenty cold by mid December and you'd be optimizing the lowest sun angles and daylight hours in that timeframe.

I'll still never understand why people feel the need to want Arctic air intrusions to "wait" for a more historic timeframe. When you live in the PNW you take what you can get and a mid December cold air intrusion is just about ideal IMO.

It's just a fact that La Nina seasons have a tendency to fare better if things hold off a bit.  I'm not saying we need to wait through half the winter like 1988-89, but within reason.

I really want to see January get off its fat arse this winter and deliver the goods.  It is astonishing how much colder that month used to be.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's just a fact that La Nina seasons have a tendency to fare better if things hold off a bit.  I'm not saying we need to wait through half the winter like 1988-89, but within reason.

Will be interesting to see whose game plan the weather decides to go with. I always have so much trouble deciding between all time record cold now and all time record cold later.

#coolingfirstworldclimateproblems

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6 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Will be interesting to see whose game plan the weather decides to go with. I always have so much trouble deciding between all time record cold now and all time record cold later.

#coolingfirstworldclimateproblems

My vote is the classic mid December warning shot followed by big time cold late Dec through early Feb.  Many of our classic winters had that progression.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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33 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Yeah but if you are talking November 2008 and 2016 those were on a different level in terms of warmth. And of course October ended up a little warm because the chilly second half wasn't quite enough to offset the super torchy first half.

Depending on if we get some chilly inversions to end the month it is possible November ends up slightly below average down here. PDX is only +0.2 through yesterday. Would be their second below average month this year, March being the other one.

November definitely won’t be too far above normal if it ends up above normal.  October was a bit warmer but not too bad the real warm month compared to average was September. 2008 and 2016 was definitely warmer than this fall. My point really was that a warmer than normal fall isn’t necessarily a bad omen for winter. Not making a comparison to those 2 years. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

November definitely won’t be too far above normal. October was a bit warmer but not too bad the real warm month compared to average was September. 2008 and 2016 was definitely warmer than this fall. My point really was that a warmer than normal fall isn’t necessarily a bad omen for winter. Not making a comparison to those 2 years. 

Yeah I hear ya if this whole fall had been above normal it would be one thing but since the second half has been cooler than normal I’m feeling better about this winter.

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5 minutes ago, Weather1011 said:

After how 2020 has been, I think we deserve a white Christmas. 

I'm thinking if there was any winter that would have a chance to be a jaw dropper it should be this one.  I'm talking one blast after another with deep snow in the ground.  People would consider it par for the course.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I am looking forward to the quieter period ahead... less rain and periods of offshore flow.     The long Thanksgiving weekend is looking lovely at this point.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The 12z GFS almost gets interesting around day 10.  After a few days of chilly inversions a nice cold front drops in from the NW with a really nice thickness crash.  The pattern has the look of somethin that could evolve into something decent for a quick hitting cold snap.  There is even a Kona low in play which has been hinted at on other runs and models.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The 12z shows a really classic inversion in the 11 to 15 day period.  We begin with a legit cold shot and then a big ridge moves in right overhead with weak offshore gradients.  Those are situation where we can get much below normal temps with very high freezing levels.  Also sets up potential for a favorable retrogression.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am looking forward to the quieter period ahead... less rain and periods of offshore flow.     The long Thanksgiving weekend is looking lovely at this point.  

I hear you.  Time for a nice interlude after a lot of rain and mountain snows.  It's looking increasingly likely we are entering a new chapter now.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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