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November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


TigerWoodsLibido

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33 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

If it works as planned it could be as transformative as the Internet itself was. Cell phone providers would no longer be needed, no more data cables draped across the sea to increase bandwidth 

Also far easier for the Rockefeller group to keeps tabs on us, which is the primary goal.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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32 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

If it works as planned it could be as transformative as the Internet itself was. Cell phone providers would no longer be needed, no more data cables draped across the sea to increase bandwidth 

Working from home has been a bit of a nightmare for me. My current satellite internet options just don’t cut it and I have absolutely no cell service here. I tried a booster, but the tech said there is no signal to boost. If I randomly have a good enough connection on telework calls there is a 5 second delay which ends up confusing people. I end up having to go down to the state park a couple miles away, put on a headset and hike the trails while facilitating Zoom meetings and trainings. Unconventional and inconvenient, but gets the job done for now. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Working from home has been a bit of a nightmare for me. My current satellite internet options just don’t cut it and I have absolutely no cell service here. I tried a booster, but the tech said there is no signal to boost. If I randomly have a good enough connection on telework calls there is a 5 second delay which ends up confusing people. I end up having to go down to the state park a couple miles away, put on a headset and hike the trails while facilitating Zoom meetings and trainings. Unconventional and inconvenient, but gets the job done for now. 

Who says you have to hike? 

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2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Also far easier for the Rockefeller group to keeps tabs on us, which is the primary goal.

Yeah I have thought about that too. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 minutes ago, Link said:

Who says you have to hike? 

Guess I don’t have to. But why not get some excercise in while I am at it. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Severe clear and 31 currently after a low of 28.

You can see by this picture why our snow hangs on so long here, unless the rain washes it away. 930am and still no direct sunlight hitting the property. 

3BA93400-359B-45FD-8EA9-49F51B64CDB8.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Hello! I've never posted on here, but follow quite a bit when lowland snowstorms grace us w their presence. I live between the PNW and AK and know it's slightly off topic, but do any of you know of good forecast resources (GFS or ECMWF) for southcentral AK (Anchorage, Seward)? I haven't found a good AK forum, so thought you all might be able to help me out. Thanks!

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The 06z GFS seemed like an improvement. The 12z took a big step back. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I think this is the first time I've ever seen the CPC use that dark of a shade of blue for part of WA in a winter outlook.  This is Jan - Mar, but their Dec outlook and Dec - Feb are almost as cold looking.  As I've also mentioned in the past the shape of the cold anomalies they are predicting is better for snow than if it had a more E to W gradient.

 

 

cold.gif

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Nice and sunny now after a cloudy start. Haven’t had too much sunshine this month. First couple days of November were nice and we had one or two days mid month but other than that sunshine has been minimal. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Nice and sunny now after a cloudy start. Haven’t had too much sunshine this month. First couple days of November were nice and we had one or two days mid month but other than that sunshine has been minimal. 

Yeah...I just wish it could have gotten colder last night.  Really rare to see it not drop below 40 during a night with a lot of clearing this time of year.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I can't believe the CPC shows the NW quarter of WA as the most likely place in the country to be colder than normal this winter!  Now it just has to happen.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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24 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The 06z GFS seemed like an improvement. The 12z took a big step back. 

The 6z had pretty cold weather here at the end of the run.  Probably just rushing it a bit.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I can't believe the CPC shows the NW quarter of WA as the most likely place in the country to be colder than normal this winter!  Now it just has to happen.

Of course it’s just a probability forecast, so -1F for the winter could be the outcome, even if it verified 

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We should set up our expectations for December this way... Would be difficult for it to be worse than the past two. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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8 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Of course it’s just a probability forecast, so -1F for the winter could be the outcome, even if it verified 

The probability also corresponds to intensity.  They have a long winded explanation on the site.  No reason to downplay the forecast.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We should set up our expectations for December this way... Would be difficult for it to be worse than the past two. 

I'm thinking a mixed bag and then the big stuff in either Jan or early Feb.  I really hope it's Jan this time.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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27 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We should set up our expectations for December this way... Would be difficult for it to be worse than the past two. 

Aside from 2016, December has been kind of lame recently for a lot of areas.    I saw someone post a composite of the last 5 moderate to strong ninas for North America in December and it was basically a torch for most of the continent. 

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23 minutes ago, MossMan said:

No frost here. Had a low of 39. Currently 45 and mostly sunny. 
3.96” for the month. 

BCA3E58E-C1FE-4C0A-8E52-A7B1BD7DE885.jpeg

Wow this might be a rare occurrence where I end up with more rain than you this month. 6.10” here so far. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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12 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Wow this might be a rare occurrence where I end up with more rain than you this month. 6.10” here so far. 

Randy's area has often been squarely in the rain shadow this month.   This is the offset to patterns that favor c-zones up there.  

What we have seen this month is lots of SW flow as opposed to NW flow.   That is also why Oregon has been fairly wet.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12Z ECMWF shows a pretty nice holiday weekend.   Drying out Thursday... rain staying north on Friday and then a front racing through Friday night and dry again for Saturday and Sunday.     If everything is shut down... its nice to have some decent weather for getting outside.   Actually that always nice... even when everything is open.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yeah December 2010 and 2011 were pretty lame. December 2017 was below average regionally. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah December 2010 and 2011 were pretty lame. December 2017 was below average regionally. 

I thought I remembered 2011 being pretty chilly too. Kind of like 2017. Maybe more inversion based without a Christmas snow event.

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36 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Wow this might be a rare occurrence where I end up with more rain than you this month. 6.10” here so far. 

Yeah I think that my area has been back in the rain shadow lately...And I’m okay with that!! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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The ECMWF seems to have gravitated back to a scenario more favorable for an inversion in the 5 to 10 day period once again.  We are left more high and dry on a number of days.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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25 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I thought I remembered 2011 being pretty chilly too. Kind of like 2017. Maybe more inversion based without a Christmas snow event.

I will look it up, but December  2011 was definitely not a torch. Definitely the least active month of that winter though. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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9 minutes ago, Jesse said:

PDX holding at 39 after a low of 38. Could be a chilly day if things don't start to burn off in the next few hours.

They are down to exactly average for the month after yesterday.

It has really been frustrating up here.  In spite of below normal 850s and even some clearing last night we haven't been able to do anything with it.  Just bad luck.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

It has really been frustrating up here.  In spite of below normal 850s and even some clearing last night we haven't been able to do anything with it.  Just bad luck.

I thought we were a lock for getting a frost or freeze when it was crystal clear and already in the upper 30s last evening around 7pm. Then a thick fog formed about an hour later and we have been in it ever since.

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The EPS control is bullish on a big ridge pumping up in the 10 to 15 day period.  I think our best path going forward is for a ridge like that to happen with an axis placement in the 120W to 135W range, and then go from there.  We need to get the progressive pattern shut down whatever it takes.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The EPS control is bullish on a big ridge pumping up in the 10 to 15 day period.  I think our best path going forward is for a ridge like that to happen with an axis placement in the 120W to 135W range, and then go from there.  We need to get the progressive pattern shut down whatever it takes.

I think you just need to move somewhere colder and drier.

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10 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I thought we were a lock for getting a frost or freeze when it was crystal clear and already in the upper 30s last evening around 7pm. Then a thick fog formed about an hour later and we have been in it ever since.

Up here we have just been too close to the jet stream.  For these inversion scenarios to work we need to be fully high and dry.  I know how frustrating it can be to have fog put a damper on getting a freeze.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

I think you just need to move somewhere colder and drier.

I was just stating what would probably be our best bet to get into something really good by mid December or so.  But you do have a point!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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