Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, Jesse said: Yeah I would take a climate like Eugene’s that has more extremes both ways over yours probably lol. No offense since it looks like you are in a beautiful location. Being so close to the water just would moderate things too much for me though. Personally, I’m glad I have my sea breezes. They keep the pollen counts down in the spring. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said: Personally, I’m glad I have my sea breezes. They keep the pollen counts down in the spring. Whatcom county is a different story entirely. I've heard they only get freezes from strong arctic airmasses. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: I’ve been wanting to move somewhere a bit farther from the sound as well. It’s beautiful but for a fan of extremes it’s not the best spot to be. Even just 3 miles down the road...this morning it was 3 degrees cooler. Many mornings it’ll be below freezing on the south side of town but in the mid to upper 30s here. It’s nice during the summer time but during the winter time it’s definitely harder to get accumulating snow and we get 25ish freezes a year on average which isn’t much compared to most of western WA/OR. That's one really nice thing about our region. There are so many microclimates you can move more or less within the same area and get way different results. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 Feels like December could very well be a big dull dud this year. Maybe something towards the end of the month or there’s always January. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 6 minutes ago, Jesse said: That's one really nice thing about our region. There are so many microclimates you can move more or less within the same area and get way different results. I’d like to move to either the central kitsap peninsula near green mountain or up north somewhere between Mt.Vernon and Bellingham. Just somewhere where there’s easier access to higher elevation and that has less of a moderating sound effect. I don’t know If I could handle the isolation but orcas island is one place I’d love to live. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Feels like December could very well be a big dull dud this year. Maybe something towards the end of the month or there’s always January. Its November 22nd. 2 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 8 minutes ago, Jesse said: Whatcom county is a different story entirely. I've heard they only get freezes from strong arctic airmasses. I can’t tell if you’re kidding or not, but while we do certainly get our share of strong arctic blasts, we can definitely also get freezes from “fake cold” radiational cooling. And of course, the eastern ⅔ or so of Whatcom County is all mountains and gets plenty of freezing weather. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 6 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: I’d like to move to either the central kitsap peninsula near green mountain or up north somewhere between Mt.Vernon and Bellingham. Just somewhere where there’s easier access to higher elevation and that has less of a moderating sound effect. I don’t know If I could handle the isolation but orcas island is one place I’d love to live. There’s plenty of houses in the Alger and Lake Samish areas of the Chuckanut Mountains to choose from (approximately 400 feet elevation), and those areas get significantly more snow than either the Bellingham or Burlington/Mt. Vernon areas. Sometimes I wish I had moved there instead of to an in-town location, but everything’s a compromise. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 26 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Feels like December could very well be a big dull dud this year. Maybe something towards the end of the month or there’s always January. We missed youu 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 Not seeing a huge ridge parked over us on the 12Z ECMWF. Looks fairly progressive... but with some nice breaks in between systems. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 7 minutes ago, Jesse said: We missed youu Meh. I probably won’t stick around long. Maybe pop by in a couple weeks to report my snow depth and find out how hot next summer is looking. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 The 12z gfs was a new twist. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Meh. I probably won’t stick around long. Maybe pop by in a couple weeks to report my snow depth and find out how hot next summer is looking. Hotter the better!!! 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 37 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Its November 22nd. Hard to believe. This year has flown by. I don’t have a great feeling about at least the first 1/2 to 2/3rds of December. Hopefully I’m wrong. I know it makes people sore when predictions don’t include cold and snow. So sorry to anyone I offended. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said: Hard to believe. This year has flown by. I don’t have a great feeling about at least the first 1/2 to 2/3rds of December. Hopefully I’m wrong. I know it makes people sore when predictions don’t include cold and snow. So sorry to anyone I offended. I think this year has seemed endless... 2020 can't end soon enough! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: I think this year has seemed endless... 2020 can't end soon enough! But December is my favorite month 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 1 minute ago, FroYoBro said: But December is my favorite month Then enjoy! 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 7 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: I don’t have a great feeling about at least the first 1/2 to 2/3rds of December. Hopefully I’m wrong. I know it makes people sore when predictions don’t include cold and snow. So sorry to anyone I offended. Anything beyond the first week is so deep into clown range that I am not expecting anything about it. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 10 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Hard to believe. This year has flown by. I don’t have a great feeling about at least the first 1/2 to 2/3rds of December. Hopefully I’m wrong. I know it makes people sore when predictions don’t include cold and snow. So sorry to anyone I offended. My December forecast got a few downvotes. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Anything beyond the first week is so deep into clown range that I am not expecting anything about it. That’s good. Everyone can set their own expectations. Mine are set pretty low right now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Link Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 18 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: The 12z gfs was a new twist. By Chubby Checkered? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: My December forecast got a few downvotes. What was your forecast? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtep Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 44 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: There’s plenty of houses in the Alger and Lake Samish areas of the Chuckanut Mountains to choose from (approximately 400 feet elevation), and those areas get significantly more snow than either the Bellingham or Burlington/Mt. Vernon areas. Sometimes I wish I had moved there instead of to an in-town location, but everything’s a compromise. Glenhaven/Cain lake always seems to score too. I'd love to live out there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 8 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: What was your forecast? Warm and maybe wet. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said: Feels like December could very well be a big dull dud this year. Maybe something towards the end of the month or there’s always January. First half is a lost cause. Second half gets interesting. Also, if GWO/MJO periodicity is retained, that puts mid/late January on the table. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, Phil said: First half will be. Second half gets interesting. Also, if GWO/MJO periodicity is retained, that puts mid/late January on the table. You know, 12 years ago we had a December that started off crappy and then got interesting around mid-month... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 38 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: The 12z gfs was a new twist. No new twist. Same general theme, clown range noise notwithstanding. +PNA under +EAMT/AAM rise, followed by transition to +NPO/-PNA second half of Dec. Question is how much GOA/Aleutian ridge amplifies in face of (possible) super PV/AK vortex. I think upcoming pattern will keep PV/+NAM at bay enough for something interesting 3rd week of December, when pattern/forcings become more favorable again. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 I've noticed El Nino winters tend to bring more (in quantity) colorful sunrises as systems remain weak and typically move south, so here's hoping we don't have too many like today! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 Aleutian/Okhotsk Sea Low might not be favorable for PNW in immediate term, but it does help boost WAFz thru NPAC, which in tandem with Eurasian High could prevent super +NAM from stacking and give 2nd half of December some wiggle room. Nov 2016 had some excellent early season wave driving which may have aided the pattern in late Dec and January 2017. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 Partly cloudy and 43 here now. Echoes look to be moving onshore. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 11 minutes ago, Phil said: No new twist. Same general theme, clown range noise notwithstanding. +PNA under +EAMT/AAM rise, followed by transition to +NPO/-PNA second half of Dec. Question is how much GOA/Aleutian ridge amplifies in face of (possible) super PV/AK vortex. I think upcoming pattern will keep PV/+NAM at bay enough for something interesting 3rd week of December, when pattern/forcings become more favorable again. Just because the vortex is strong early on doesn’t mean it’s going to keep strengthening. Also, the real problems come when the SPV and TPV couple, right? That’s what killed last winter as well as 1999-00, and it’s nowhere in sight yet as far as I see. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 12 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: You know, 12 years ago we had a December that started off crappy and then got interesting around mid-month... I still remember that winter. One of the most dynamic Nov/Dec/Jan pattern progressions of the decade. That 2007/08 and 2008/09 low pass forcing regime was pretty epic. Gave rise to the -PDO/-PMM and -NAO background state which persisted until 2013. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 .erohsno gnivom eb ot kool sohcE .won ereh 34 dna yduolc yltraP 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 12Z EPS... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 Looks like it’s about to rain soon. Up to 44. Will be our 11th day in a row with measurable precip and the 18th so far this month. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said: .erohsno gnivom eb ot kool sohcE .won ereh 34 dna yduolc yltraP ...murof-bus gnorw eht ni gnitsop llits re’uoY 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 15 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: Just because the vortex is strong early on doesn’t mean it’s going to keep strengthening. Also, the real problems come when the SPV and TPV couple, right? That’s what killed last winter as well as 1999-00, and it’s nowhere in sight yet as far as I see. Yeah, though 1999/00 had more problems than just PV. There was a +IOD-esque standing wave which in some ways is reminiscent of last winter. TPV got trapped in Alaska for super +EPO..strat wasn’t really to blame after winter solstice. Last winter was different in that we had +ENSO low pass in conjunction with IOD standing/IPWP subsidence, so base state was unfavorable for PNW without SSW/something else to perturb it. But combo of aerosols from Aussie fires and Antarctic SSW effects (in tandem with aforementioned IPWP subsidence regime already present) basically threw us into something reminiscent of a volcanic super vortex pattern, like 1991/92, 1994/95, etc. Warm ENSO + volcanic strat is never a good combo for blocking. The one shot we had at SSW/blocking last winter was destroyed by TPV trapped in Beaufort Sea/AK (seems to be a theme w/ +IOD). Once that happened..it was game over. In a flash. QBO was unfavorable too given ENSO. In hindsight, I should have seen last winter coming from miles away. Stupid. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, Phil said: Yeah, though 1999/00 had more problems than just PV. There was a +IOD-esque standing wave which in some ways is reminiscent of last winter. TPV got trapped in Alaska for super +EPO..strat wasn’t really to blame after winter solstice. Last winter was different in that we had +ENSO low pass in conjunction with IOD standing/IPWP subsidence, so base state was unfavorable for PNW without SSW/something else to perturb it. But combo of aerosols from Aussie fires and Antarctic SSW effects (in tandem with aforementioned IPWP subsidence regime already present) basically threw us into something reminiscent of a volcanic super vortex pattern, like 1991/92, 1994/95, etc. Warm ENSO + volcanic strat is never a good combo. The one shot we had at SSW/blocking last winter was destroyed by TPV trapped in Beaufort Sea/AK (seems to be a theme w/ +IOD). Once that happened..it was game over. In a flash. Translation: Some PNW winters are kinda sucky. 2 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 Portland has reached 46 so far with better mixing of the air ahead of the storm system. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 1 hour ago, Deweydog said: Warm and maybe wet. Wow. You’re a jerk to post that. I’ve ordered you some coal for your stocking 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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