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November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


TigerWoodsLibido

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5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Yeah I would take a climate like Eugene’s that has more extremes both ways over yours probably lol. No offense since it looks like you are in a beautiful location. Being so close to the water just would moderate things too much for me though.

Personally, I’m glad I have my sea breezes. They keep the pollen counts down in the spring.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I’ve been wanting to move somewhere a bit farther from the sound as well. It’s beautiful but for a fan of extremes it’s not the best spot to be. Even just 3 miles down the road...this morning it was 3 degrees cooler. Many mornings it’ll be below freezing on the south side of town but in the mid to upper 30s here. It’s nice during the summer time but during the winter time it’s definitely harder to get accumulating snow and we get 25ish freezes a year on average which isn’t much compared to most of western WA/OR. 

That's one really nice thing about our region. There are so many microclimates you can move more or less within the same area and get way different results.

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6 minutes ago, Jesse said:

That's one really nice thing about our region. There are so many microclimates you can move more or less within the same area and get way different results.

I’d like to move to either the central kitsap peninsula near green mountain or up north somewhere between Mt.Vernon and Bellingham. Just somewhere where there’s easier access to higher elevation and that has less of a moderating sound effect. I don’t know If I could  handle the isolation but orcas island is one place I’d love to live. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Feels like December could very well be a big dull dud this year.  Maybe something towards the end of the month or there’s always January. 

Its November 22nd.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Whatcom county is a different story entirely. I've heard they only get freezes from strong arctic airmasses. :o

I can’t tell if you’re kidding or not, but while we do certainly get our share of strong arctic blasts, we can definitely also get freezes from “fake cold” radiational cooling. And of course, the eastern ⅔ or so of Whatcom County is all mountains and gets plenty of freezing weather.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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6 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I’d like to move to either the central kitsap peninsula near green mountain or up north somewhere between Mt.Vernon and Bellingham. Just somewhere where there’s easier access to higher elevation and that has less of a moderating sound effect. I don’t know If I could  handle the isolation but orcas island is one place I’d love to live. 

There’s plenty of houses in the Alger and Lake Samish areas of the Chuckanut Mountains to choose from (approximately 400 feet elevation), and those areas get significantly more snow than either the Bellingham or Burlington/Mt. Vernon areas. Sometimes I wish I had moved there instead of to an in-town location, but everything’s a compromise.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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The 12z gfs was a new twist. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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37 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its November 22nd.

Hard to believe. This year has flown by. 
 

I don’t have a great feeling about at least the first 1/2 to 2/3rds of December.  Hopefully I’m wrong.  I know it makes people sore when predictions don’t include cold and snow. So sorry to anyone I offended. 

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1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

Hard to believe. This year has flown by. 
 

I don’t have a great feeling about at least the first 1/2 to 2/3rds of December.  Hopefully I’m wrong.  I know it makes people sore when predictions don’t include cold and snow. So sorry to anyone I offended. 

I think this year has seemed endless... 2020 can't end soon enough! 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I don’t have a great feeling about at least the first 1/2 to 2/3rds of December.  Hopefully I’m wrong.  I know it makes people sore when predictions don’t include cold and snow. So sorry to anyone I offended. 

Anything beyond the first week is so deep into clown range that I am not expecting anything about it.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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10 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Hard to believe. This year has flown by. 
 

I don’t have a great feeling about at least the first 1/2 to 2/3rds of December.  Hopefully I’m wrong.  I know it makes people sore when predictions don’t include cold and snow. So sorry to anyone I offended. 

My December forecast got a few downvotes.😟

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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44 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

There’s plenty of houses in the Alger and Lake Samish areas of the Chuckanut Mountains to choose from (approximately 400 feet elevation), and those areas get significantly more snow than either the Bellingham or Burlington/Mt. Vernon areas. Sometimes I wish I had moved there instead of to an in-town location, but everything’s a compromise.

Glenhaven/Cain lake always seems to score too. I'd love to live out there. 

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1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

Feels like December could very well be a big dull dud this year.  Maybe something towards the end of the month or there’s always January. 

First half is a lost cause. Second half gets interesting.

Also, if GWO/MJO periodicity is retained, that puts mid/late January on the table.

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38 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The 12z gfs was a new twist. 

No new twist. Same general theme, clown range noise notwithstanding.

+PNA under +EAMT/AAM rise, followed by transition to +NPO/-PNA second half of Dec. Question is how much GOA/Aleutian ridge amplifies in face of (possible) super PV/AK vortex.

I think upcoming pattern will keep PV/+NAM at bay enough for something interesting 3rd week of December, when pattern/forcings become more favorable again.

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Aleutian/Okhotsk Sea Low might not be favorable for PNW in immediate term, but it does help boost WAFz thru NPAC, which in tandem with Eurasian High could prevent super +NAM from stacking and give 2nd half of December some wiggle room.

Nov 2016 had some excellent early season wave driving which may have aided the pattern in late Dec and January 2017.

 

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11 minutes ago, Phil said:

No new twist. Same general theme, clown range noise notwithstanding.

+PNA under +EAMT/AAM rise, followed by transition to +NPO/-PNA second half of Dec. Question is how much GOA/Aleutian ridge amplifies in face of (possible) super PV/AK vortex.

I think upcoming pattern will keep PV/+NAM at bay enough for something interesting 3rd week of December, when pattern/forcings become more favorable again.

Just because the vortex is strong early on doesn’t mean it’s going to keep strengthening.

Also, the real problems come when the SPV and TPV couple, right? That’s what killed last winter as well as 1999-00, and it’s nowhere in sight yet as far as I see.

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12 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

You know, 12 years ago we had a December that started off crappy and then got interesting around mid-month...

I still remember that winter. One of the most dynamic Nov/Dec/Jan pattern progressions of the decade.

That 2007/08 and 2008/09 low pass forcing regime was pretty epic. Gave rise to the -PDO/-PMM and -NAO background state which persisted until 2013. 

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15 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Just because the vortex is strong early on doesn’t mean it’s going to keep strengthening.

Also, the real problems come when the SPV and TPV couple, right? That’s what killed last winter as well as 1999-00, and it’s nowhere in sight yet as far as I see.

Yeah, though 1999/00 had more problems than just PV. There was a +IOD-esque standing wave which in some ways is reminiscent of last winter. TPV got trapped in Alaska for super +EPO..strat wasn’t really to blame after winter solstice.

Last winter was different in that we had +ENSO low pass in conjunction with IOD standing/IPWP subsidence, so base state was unfavorable for PNW without SSW/something else to perturb it. But combo of aerosols from Aussie fires and Antarctic SSW effects (in tandem with aforementioned IPWP subsidence regime already present) basically threw us into something reminiscent of a volcanic super vortex pattern, like 1991/92, 1994/95, etc. Warm ENSO + volcanic strat is never a good combo for blocking.

The one shot we had at SSW/blocking last winter was destroyed by TPV trapped in Beaufort Sea/AK (seems to be a theme w/ +IOD). Once that happened..it was game over. In a flash.

QBO was unfavorable too given ENSO. In hindsight, I should have seen last winter coming from miles away. Stupid.

 

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah, though 1999/00 had more problems than just PV. There was a +IOD-esque standing wave which in some ways is reminiscent of last winter. TPV got trapped in Alaska for super +EPO..strat wasn’t really to blame after winter solstice.

Last winter was different in that we had +ENSO low pass in conjunction with IOD standing/IPWP subsidence, so base state was unfavorable for PNW without SSW/something else to perturb it. But combo of aerosols from Aussie fires and Antarctic SSW effects (in tandem with aforementioned IPWP subsidence regime already present) basically threw us into something reminiscent of a volcanic super vortex pattern, like 1991/92, 1994/95, etc. Warm ENSO + volcanic strat is never a good combo.

The one shot we had at SSW/blocking last winter was destroyed by TPV trapped in Beaufort Sea/AK (seems to be a theme w/ +IOD). Once that happened..it was game over. In a flash.

 

 

Translation:

Some PNW winters are kinda sucky.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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