fubario Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 1 hour ago, Phil said: First half is a lost cause. Second half gets interesting. Also, if GWO/MJO periodicity is retained, that puts mid/late January on the table. late january?? lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fubario Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 44 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z EPS... congrats 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 11 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Wow. You’re a jerk to post that. I’ve ordered you some coal for your stocking I think January will be chill-E-er!!! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 4 minutes ago, Deweydog said: I think January will be chill-E-er!!! Me too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 2 hours ago, ShawniganLake said: Feels like December could very well be a big dull dud this year. Maybe something towards the end of the month or there’s always January. We certainly need the progressive pattern to shut down. Sometimes it's hard once it gets going. Some models still slow things way down in early December. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 46 and light rain. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 I'll have to call this the better late than never inversion. 42 / 31 here for the day so far. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I'll have to call this the better late than never inversion. 42 / 31 here for the day so far. How many freezes are you at for the year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 49 here and still dry... and the sky is still bright and you can see the sun through the high clouds. A decent November day. It looks like its raining in Seattle now... but the low levels are too dry out here for now. Rain should start around dusk. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 .01” so far on the day. 43 degrees. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 Things don't look good all the way through December 8th. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 Raining in the swamp. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 0.03” here so far. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 58 minutes ago, puyallupjon said: Things don't look good all the way through March 8th. Fixed it for you. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 1 hour ago, snow_wizard said: I'll have to call this the better late than never inversion. 42 / 31 here for the day so far. 44/37 here. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 44/30 here today. Rain holding off but looks like it should be here by sunset or shortly after. Pretty nice day. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said: How many freezes are you at for the year? 8 which isn't horrible for this early. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 There are actually some favorable differences on the 18z GFS vs earlier runs. More high pressure over the GOA all in all. Most of the weather over the next week will be coming down from the NW. Could be worse. It appears a favorable MJO could emerge on fairly short notice so that might account for some of the model instability we are seeing. At this point the MJO forecast ensembles have quite a bit of spread. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 HIO hit 40 between hours. No sub-40 high. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 Looks like 42 is it for today. the temp has fallen back to 41 now. Pretty nippy day. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 I’m feelin’ a decent AR event in the first ten days of Deciembre. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 5 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said: I’d like to move to either the central kitsap peninsula near green mountain or up north somewhere between Mt.Vernon and Bellingham. Just somewhere where there’s easier access to higher elevation and that has less of a moderating sound effect. I don’t know If I could handle the isolation but orcas island is one place I’d love to live. I live less than a mile from the water and we actually do okay with cold lows here. Usually only a couple degrees warmer than Arlington and in 2008 we dropped to 2F which was about as cold as anywhere. Of course if you care about snow you can do better almost anywhere else in the state, but it gets significantly better if you go north or east from here. Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 27 minutes ago, Deweydog said: I’m feelin’ a decent AR event in the first ten days of Deciembre. December 18 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 1 hour ago, MossMan said: Fixed it for you. Yeah, we wouldn't want to blow our load to early, right. If you are a snow lover in Western Washington you should want it whenever you can get it. Before you know it you'll look at the calendar and it will be March 20th and the pattern will be setting up perfectly FOR LUMPY RAIN or a 1/2" of SLUSH. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brook from Brookings Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 SSW coming in late March. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, Brook from Brookings said: SSW coming in late March. How big are your **? 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 Chilly evening on South Fork Silver Creek. 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Skagit Weather said: I live less than a mile from the water and we actually do okay with cold lows here. Usually only a couple degrees warmer than Arlington and in 2008 we dropped to 2F which was about as cold as anywhere. Of course if you care about snow you can do better almost anywhere else in the state, but it gets significantly better if you go north or east from here. Getting away from the water definitely helps. I’d like to live somewhere up north with a bit of elevation and near to somewhere I can go hiking. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 Up to 0.10” today...6.20” on the month. Looks like the rains about to wrap up here soon. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 A small wave of moisture might move through soon. Down to 38. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 2 hours ago, snow_wizard said: There are actually some favorable differences on the 18z GFS vs earlier runs. More high pressure over the GOA all in all. Most of the weather over the next week will be coming down from the NW. Could be worse. It appears a favorable MJO could emerge on fairly short notice so that might account for some of the model instability we are seeing. At this point the MJO forecast ensembles have quite a bit of spread. Should probably take a nap for the next 2-3 weeks. You’ll need the energy later. 2 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 42 and rain in the swamp. This is as close as we've been to snow in a long time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 14 minutes ago, Phil said: Should probably take a nap for the next 2-3 weeks. You’ll need the energy later. Not as familiar with the big picture pattern stuff but where the models are at currently definitely nothing on the horizon. I’m honestly thinking something will happen very late December at the earliest. Would be nice to get some snow legit snow in December or January. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 1 minute ago, puyallupjon said: 42 and rain in the swamp. This is as close as we've been to snow in a long time. Just 2 weeks ago it was 38 and rain snow mix here. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 43 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Just 2 weeks ago it was 38 and rain snow mix here. I must have missed that here in the swamp. Can't say we had a rain snow mix. Remember, things are different here in the swamp. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 Very chilly light rain. Only 39 here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 15 minutes ago, puyallupjon said: I must have missed that here in the swamp. Can't say we had a rain snow mix. Remember, things are different here in the swamp. We had a mix on the hill. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: We had a mix on the hill. D**n. It's pretty normal for people on the hill to get a wet snow accumulation and us folks in the swamp see rain. In-laws on 176th near Thun Field will have snow and all we get is cold rain. Big tease. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 6 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: Very chilly light rain. Only 39 here. Just some light rain and up to 39 here as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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