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November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


TigerWoodsLibido

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2 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

Feels like December could very well be a big dull dud this year.  Maybe something towards the end of the month or there’s always January. 

We certainly need the progressive pattern to shut down.  Sometimes it's hard once it gets going.  Some models still slow things way down in early December.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I'll have to call this the better late than never inversion.  42 / 31 here for the day so far.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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49 here and still dry... and the sky is still bright and you can see the sun through the high clouds.    A decent November day.  

It looks like its raining in Seattle now... but the low levels are too dry out here for now.   Rain should start around dusk.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

How many freezes are you at for the year?

8 which isn't horrible for this early.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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There are actually some favorable differences on the 18z GFS vs earlier runs.  More high pressure over the GOA all in all.  Most of the weather over the next week will be coming down from the NW.  Could be worse.  It appears a favorable MJO could emerge on fairly short notice so that might account for some of the model instability we are seeing.  At this point the MJO forecast ensembles have quite a bit of spread.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Looks like 42 is it for today.  the temp has fallen back to 41 now.  Pretty nippy day.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I’d like to move to either the central kitsap peninsula near green mountain or up north somewhere between Mt.Vernon and Bellingham. Just somewhere where there’s easier access to higher elevation and that has less of a moderating sound effect. I don’t know If I could  handle the isolation but orcas island is one place I’d love to live. 

I live less than a mile from the water and we actually do okay with cold lows here. Usually only a couple degrees warmer than Arlington and in 2008 we dropped to 2F which was about as cold as anywhere.

Of course if you care about snow you can do better almost anywhere else in the state, but it gets significantly better if you go north or east from here.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Fixed it for you. 

Yeah, we wouldn't want to blow our load to early, right.

If you are a snow lover in Western Washington you should want it whenever you can get it.

Before you know it you'll look at the calendar and it will be March 20th and the pattern will be setting up perfectly FOR LUMPY RAIN or a 1/2" of SLUSH.

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Chilly evening on South Fork Silver Creek. 

20AC1C5C-D965-432E-947A-FB6DCC9C89B2.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, Skagit Weather said:

I live less than a mile from the water and we actually do okay with cold lows here. Usually only a couple degrees warmer than Arlington and in 2008 we dropped to 2F which was about as cold as anywhere.

Of course if you care about snow you can do better almost anywhere else in the state, but it gets significantly better if you go north or east from here.

Getting away from the water definitely helps. I’d like to live somewhere up north with a bit of elevation and near to somewhere I can go hiking. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

There are actually some favorable differences on the 18z GFS vs earlier runs.  More high pressure over the GOA all in all.  Most of the weather over the next week will be coming down from the NW.  Could be worse.  It appears a favorable MJO could emerge on fairly short notice so that might account for some of the model instability we are seeing.  At this point the MJO forecast ensembles have quite a bit of spread.

Should probably take a nap for the next 2-3 weeks. You’ll need the energy later.

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14 minutes ago, Phil said:

Should probably take a nap for the next 2-3 weeks. You’ll need the energy later.

Not as familiar with the big picture pattern stuff but where the models are at currently definitely nothing on the horizon. I’m honestly thinking something will happen very late December at the earliest. Would be nice to get some snow legit snow in December or January.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, puyallupjon said:

42 and rain in the swamp.  This is as close as we've been to snow in a long time.  

Just 2 weeks ago it was 38 and rain snow mix here. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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