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November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


TigerWoodsLibido

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7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Pretty horrid pattern. Might all need to take a break for a little while.

In our climate having to write off 1-2 weeks of December right off the bat is not a good way to start the winter. Two years in a row where Eugene's only sub-40 high is in November? ;)

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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CFS torches through January now. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

In our climate having to write off 1-2 weeks of December right off the bat is not a good way to start the winter. 

Obviously it isn't but it's also not crazy unexpected. A winter like 1988-89 was complete dullsville early on. If it's the 2nd half of December and there's nothing on the horizon then it's probably time to worry. 

Winters like 2016-17 that are consistently troughy throughout are rare and getting less common with time.

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Just now, BLI snowman said:

Obviously it isn't but it's also not crazy unexpected. A winter like 1988-89 was complete dullsville early on. If it's the 2nd half of December and there's nothing on the horizon then it's probably time to worry. 

Winters like 2016-17 that are consistently troughy throughout are rare and getting less common with time.

I'll add that it's discouraging that so much of the world looks to continue to just torch in early December right now. One thing you look for as an encouraging sign is a sizable region of cold anomalies in the NH, and once again just like last year at this time we're just not seeing that. Europe, Asia, and the rest of North America look ugly for awhile. Definitely a bit worrisome. 

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9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

CFS torches through January now. 

In that case, I’m bullish on an epic January now.

The CFS suuucks.

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I'll add that it's discouraging that so much of the world looks to continue to just torch in early December right now. One thing you look for as an encouraging sign is a sizable region of cold anomalies in the NH, and once again just like last year at this time we're just not seeing that. Europe, Asia, and the rest of North America look ugly for awhile. Definitely a bit worrisome. 

+EPO/+NAM is a NH torch pattern, no doubt.

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16 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:
00z Canadian ensembles continue to be very consistent showing a real impressive Columbia Basin cold pool in place for 8+ days. Hmmm....

The other models are trending toward it also.  I actually like the changes in the models tonight.  Looks like a train wreck developing over North America as the jet stream buckles.  That wreckage should just keep piling up further and further off the cost with time.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

6z GFS in 2 hours 28 minutes. Who's staying up for that barn-burner of a run? Wall-to-wall action and excitement. C'MON!!!! We'll get there. Nothing looks interesting for at least the next 5-7 days, but things can change quickly.

We actually have a decently cold trough coming through this week with 850s dropping to about -5.  Nothing wrong with that.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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25 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

February-March look pretty dang good.

Yeah. but let's be honest. Once we get past mid-February the potential for awesomeness in the lowlands drops precipitously. I'm sure we'll see some snow up here during those months. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

We actually have a decently cold trough coming through this week with 850s dropping to about -5.  Nothing wrong with that.

Yeah, after the initial trough is fine, it's after that point.

 

The Canadian says the Columbia Basin turns into a refrigerator/mini-ice box for 8+ days. I hope its right.

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah. but let's be honest. Once we get past mid-February the potential for awesomeness in the lowlands drops precipitously. I'm sure we'll see some snow up here during those months. 

Of course, but the CFS isn't very good. Not concerned. It's only November 22nd. Let's pump the brakes. Yeah. Pump them a few times.

12z NAM in 6 hours 29 minutes

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2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Of course, but the CFS isn't very good. Not concerned. It's only November 22nd. Let's pump the brakes. Yeah. Pump them a few times.

12z NAM in 6 hours 29 minutes

I know, but I can't get 1999-2000 out of my head. What a nightmare!

  • Snow 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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31 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I think my trees are starting to bud out! And I will need to mow soon. 

Your slow and somewhat seemingly methodic decline into Tim Jr. is a bit concerning, don't worry I can help. 

Put up some more xmas lights
Pet your dogs more
Kiss your kids incessantly
and 

PUT THE F***** PLOW ON THE GODDAMN MOWER ALREADY!

Hope that helps

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One thing about the CFS is individual runs are meaningless.  You have to take an average of a lot of runs to get a coherent picture from it.

At any rate...the ECMWF surface temp maps aren't too bad.  It shows SEA having decently cold temps next weekend with a freezing low on Sunday.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I know, but I can't get 1999-2000 out of my head. What a nightmare!

That was a case of the Pacific being in hyperdrive.  I think that was a -QBO and we were near solar max not to mention it was a second year Nina.  Not a very good analog.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I know, but I can't get 1999-2000 out of my head. What a nightmare!

Yeah, but with a moderately strong Nina in progress we stand a low chance of that. I would think. We're either going into a ridge/inversion, cold pool/fake cold regime and then retrogression, or just a blip in the Nina with brief(5-10 days) of weak systems/split flow, and then the jet roars back with a very active pattern resuming.

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6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I think my trees are starting to bud out! And I will need to mow soon. 

It's actually been a decently cool November for being a Nina.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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