Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 Back to the EURO Day 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 Day 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 After the trough Tuesday-Wednesday just hoping to see something interesting. I would gladly welcome a ridge/inversion, Columbia Basin cold pool over any weak systems and split flow. NOPE! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 Day 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 10.5 Just your run of the mill 936mb low According to Phil that is nothing impressive since it is in the Pacific. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 00z GFS Hi-res maps loading now. 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 Day 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 Pretty horrid pattern. Might all need to take a break for a little while. 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 Day 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Pretty horrid pattern. Might all need to take a break for a little while. In our climate having to write off 1-2 weeks of December right off the bat is not a good way to start the winter. Two years in a row where Eugene's only sub-40 high is in November? 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 It seems near the end of November into the 1st week of December is when we've seen some of our most profound and sudden model flip/changes. I'm keeping that in the back of my mind next to pizza and other things. 6z GFS in 2 hours 55 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 It’s over. 1 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 CFS torches through January now. 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 Day 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: In our climate having to write off 1-2 weeks of December right off the bat is not a good way to start the winter. Obviously it isn't but it's also not crazy unexpected. A winter like 1988-89 was complete dullsville early on. If it's the 2nd half of December and there's nothing on the horizon then it's probably time to worry. Winters like 2016-17 that are consistently troughy throughout are rare and getting less common with time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: CFS torches through January now. February-March look pretty dang good. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: CFS torches through January now. ****. I heard it was showing -8C monthly anomalies for January just yesterday. What a collapse. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 Day 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 Just now, BLI snowman said: Obviously it isn't but it's also not crazy unexpected. A winter like 1988-89 was complete dullsville early on. If it's the 2nd half of December and there's nothing on the horizon then it's probably time to worry. Winters like 2016-17 that are consistently troughy throughout are rare and getting less common with time. I'll add that it's discouraging that so much of the world looks to continue to just torch in early December right now. One thing you look for as an encouraging sign is a sizable region of cold anomalies in the NH, and once again just like last year at this time we're just not seeing that. Europe, Asia, and the rest of North America look ugly for awhile. Definitely a bit worrisome. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 00z Canadian ensembles continue to be very consistent showing a real impressive Columbia Basin cold pool in place for 8+ days. Hmmm.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: CFS torches through January now. In that case, I’m bullish on an epic January now. The CFS suuucks. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: I'll add that it's discouraging that so much of the world looks to continue to just torch in early December right now. One thing you look for as an encouraging sign is a sizable region of cold anomalies in the NH, and once again just like last year at this time we're just not seeing that. Europe, Asia, and the rest of North America look ugly for awhile. Definitely a bit worrisome. +EPO/+NAM is a NH torch pattern, no doubt. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 Day 9'er Looking very Canadian to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 9'er Looking very Canadian to me. Uhhhh. Yeah. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 Conflicting reports!!! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 6z GFS in 2 hours 28 minutes. Who's staying up for that barn-burner of a run? Wall-to-wall action and excitement. C'MON!!!! We'll get there. Nothing looks interesting for at least the next 5-7 days, but things can change quickly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 16 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 00z Canadian ensembles continue to be very consistent showing a real impressive Columbia Basin cold pool in place for 8+ days. Hmmm.... The other models are trending toward it also. I actually like the changes in the models tonight. Looks like a train wreck developing over North America as the jet stream buckles. That wreckage should just keep piling up further and further off the cost with time. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals A little wetter than the GFS. Good to see. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 6z GFS in 2 hours 28 minutes. Who's staying up for that barn-burner of a run? Wall-to-wall action and excitement. C'MON!!!! We'll get there. Nothing looks interesting for at least the next 5-7 days, but things can change quickly. We actually have a decently cold trough coming through this week with 850s dropping to about -5. Nothing wrong with that. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 25 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: February-March look pretty dang good. Yeah. but let's be honest. Once we get past mid-February the potential for awesomeness in the lowlands drops precipitously. I'm sure we'll see some snow up here during those months. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 Just now, snow_wizard said: We actually have a decently cold trough coming through this week with 850s dropping to about -5. Nothing wrong with that. Yeah, after the initial trough is fine, it's after that point. The Canadian says the Columbia Basin turns into a refrigerator/mini-ice box for 8+ days. I hope its right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: Yeah. but let's be honest. Once we get past mid-February the potential for awesomeness in the lowlands drops precipitously. I'm sure we'll see some snow up here during those months. Of course, but the CFS isn't very good. Not concerned. It's only November 22nd. Let's pump the brakes. Yeah. Pump them a few times. 12z NAM in 6 hours 29 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 I think my trees are starting to bud out! And I will need to mow soon. 1 1 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Of course, but the CFS isn't very good. Not concerned. It's only November 22nd. Let's pump the brakes. Yeah. Pump them a few times. 12z NAM in 6 hours 29 minutes I know, but I can't get 1999-2000 out of my head. What a nightmare! 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 31 minutes ago, MossMan said: I think my trees are starting to bud out! And I will need to mow soon. Your slow and somewhat seemingly methodic decline into Tim Jr. is a bit concerning, don't worry I can help. Put up some more xmas lights Pet your dogs more Kiss your kids incessantly and PUT THE F***** PLOW ON THE GODDAMN MOWER ALREADY! Hope that helps 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 One thing about the CFS is individual runs are meaningless. You have to take an average of a lot of runs to get a coherent picture from it. At any rate...the ECMWF surface temp maps aren't too bad. It shows SEA having decently cold temps next weekend with a freezing low on Sunday. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I know, but I can't get 1999-2000 out of my head. What a nightmare! That was a case of the Pacific being in hyperdrive. I think that was a -QBO and we were near solar max not to mention it was a second year Nina. Not a very good analog. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I know, but I can't get 1999-2000 out of my head. What a nightmare! Yeah, but with a moderately strong Nina in progress we stand a low chance of that. I would think. We're either going into a ridge/inversion, cold pool/fake cold regime and then retrogression, or just a blip in the Nina with brief(5-10 days) of weak systems/split flow, and then the jet roars back with a very active pattern resuming. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 6 minutes ago, MossMan said: I think my trees are starting to bud out! And I will need to mow soon. It's actually been a decently cool November for being a Nina. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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