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November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


TigerWoodsLibido

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4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

That's a great idea. How well is that working out thus far?

Not well in 2020.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I see lots of offshore flow and east wind ahead... seems like early December is a prime time for that and of course I love it.   Plenty of sunshine and dry weather for pre-Christmas activities.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Gfs is pretty dry after tomorrow’s system. Pretty good run of wet weather here the last 3 weeks. Have had rain 19 out of the last 21 days...will be 20 for 22 tomorrow. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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32 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

A lot of east wind on this run. Better than nothing. 

Looks like the GEM is having problems running on Pivotal and Tidbits. At least for me....

It’s puking baby material. 
 

It could be worse.

This is what we want to see early in the season during a nina.

everything is fine.

im sure it won’t last long.

 

 

 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

It’s puking baby material. 
 

It could be worse.

This is what we want to see early in the season during a nina.

everything is fine.

im sure it won’t last long.

 

 

 

 

 

-8C temp anomaly in January. Book it. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

70507557_ScreenShot2020-11-23at9_40_36PM.png.67140ffa3bdafcae82d5dc8c395592d2.png

Here's what the first 13 days of December 2008 looked like...

The first 13 days of the following December were a lot better. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 significant arctic blasts in 6 December’s 2008-2013. We didn’t know how good we had it. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I don’t think we’ll see another until the next one.☹️

Getting ready to celebrate 30 years since the last arctic express. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GEFS I mentioned I was looking for retrogression Day 10+ .... Well all hope is not lost. It's not ideal yet, but that's a retrogression signal. Would it continue beyond that point? Who knows.

Day 10-16 GIF

floop-gefs-2020112400.500h_anom_na.gif

Wonder what the gefs has for their 35 day extended run.  Has anyone actually seen it?  Wondering how it compares to the Euro weeklies

 

 

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The last few GFS runs clearly show a retrogression signal during the 10 to 16 period.  Each time the trough re-digs over the North Pacific it ends up further west than the previous time.  If that actually happens I'm thinking mid December for things to start getting interesting.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

.... and back to the EURO

Day 7

500h_anom.na.png

That certainly looks capable of delivering a frosty night or two.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

The last few GFS runs clearly show a retrogression signal during the 10 to 16 period.  Each time the trough re-digs over the North Pacific it ends up further west than the previous time.  If that actually happens I'm thinking mid December for things to start getting interesting.

Yeah after the ridge/inversion, cold pool regime it's coming. Write it down. Pen & Paper. Pencil sketch, Etch-a-Sketch. An oil painting. Historic Winter on the way.

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7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Kind of like how it's dry Friday, system comes in overnight and exits by Saturday morning, and then it's dry again by Saturday afternoon. Good timing. Need to get a little bit more yard stuff done before we get into the thick of things. 

A couple years ago I didn't mow a final time before we got into prolonged rain and snow. My grass got long as hell and the snow took forever to cover it and get that pristine look. Never again. Need the grass short so only a couple inches can cover it, not four. Just in case we don't have a January 1950 repeat (which we undoubtedly will).

I hear you.  I have my back and side yards mowed really good.  Just need to hit part of the front again.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Here's from D16 onward.

Certainly not as good as the ECMWF weeklies as it doesn't hold onto the blocking over the Aleutians as strongly. The initial signal is there though around the 20th but gets muddled there after.

gfs-ensemble-extended-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-1606089600-1607472000-1609113600-80.gif

Sometimes its just really wet in late December and it rains on most days.   In fact that is pretty common.   That is what that pattern looks like to me.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Down to 34 under clear skies. 

  • Snow 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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This Euro run shows a significant inversion next Tuesday.  Widespread freezing low temps and high upper 30s and low 40s in a lot of places.

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  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 10 Aleutian trough starting to retrograde.

500h_anom.na.png

6z GFS in 2 hour 33 minutes

Kind of eye popping on the blocking there!  Good retro candidate.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

sn10_acc.us_nw.png

 

Wow that's dry for this time of year.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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