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November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


TigerWoodsLibido

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5 hours ago, Jesse said:

Meant to post these earlier, but there were some great early season snow conditions up on Hood this weekend. Snowshoed the PCT in the Barlow Pass area, then to Enid Lake by Gov’t Camp for sunset. Easily 2+ snow around Barlow, maybe a foot or so near Gov’t.

42AE6E48-A64A-46A8-A698-90535208BE4E.thumb.jpeg.3a7ddae020bdc880e616222326ef40ca.jpeg

1B01683C-E963-41FB-8A0A-9D1CCE70373C.thumb.jpeg.70cab65666713f78e5528b8c6fddd5ad.jpeg

6E32805F-ECF5-41BF-B086-090F017BBC24.thumb.jpeg.1407d0cd278f3f51a1e4503cd389c239.jpeg

D5BE24CA-984A-4418-A95B-064896D48AC9.thumb.jpeg.eac58954322396dcc4657e2b60673644.jpeg

 

Nice!  I got my lay off notice last week so now that I know I have my severance coming, I pulled the trigger on a pair of MSR's earlier tonight.  I tried to get some last January, but I fall in the "big and tall" category, and the aircraft carrier sized snow shoes were all sold out.  As it is the pair I was originally going to get is already out of stock, so I had to go with plan B.  Hopefully I will have some good pictures to share from around Mt Baker this winter.

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I'm getting pretty intrigued by the latest model runs.  Quite a myriad of possibilities beginning to emerge for things to get fun perhaps sooner than we had thought.  Two of the past four GFS runs have actually gotten petty cold in week 2.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Hmmm.  It turns out the GFS suite of models is liking the idea of a Maritime Continent MJO wave emerging soon.  No wonder the model trends have been good.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

No visible cold available,  yet.

Obviously.  We're just kicking around possibilities.  Often times retrogressions lead to good things.  In actuality things look pretty promising to be into something good by mid December or maybe even a bit sooner.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Yup, not there yet. YET.

6z GFS in 2 hours 52 minutes

Some GFS runs are getting really close though.  A couple of recent runs showing sub -5 850s as we get into December.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I like the fact we are going to get some fake cold before the good pattern comes also.  The 12z ECMWF showed SEA dropping to freezing on 4 different days out of the next 10.  We'll see how the 0z looks shortly.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Hmmm.  It turns out the GFS suite of models is liking the idea of a Maritime Continent MJO wave emerging soon.  No wonder the model trends have been good.

The GEFS has it going to phase 5, which is a warm phase for the PNW.  The Canadian, though, has it going for phase 7, which is colder for the PNW.  The Euro seems to have the MJO pretty much nil by Dec. 8th.

https://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php

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No doubt the Pacific is being slowed way down on this Euro run.  I like where this is going.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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9 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

The GEFS has it going to phase 5, which is a warm phase for the PNW.  The Canadian, though, has it going for phase 7, which is colder for the PNW.  The Euro seems to have the MJO pretty much nil by Dec. 8th.

https://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php

5 is actually where we get most of our Arctic outbreaks.  You are certainly correct the ECMWF MJO forecast is unimpressive.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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8 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 9'er not what I was hoping to see, but it is after Day 6-7 after all.

500h_anom.na.png

The surface pressure map at day 9 is perfection for a good inversion though.  At this point blocking and shutting down the Pacific is the big deal.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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As a further comment on the MJO.  It has always puzzled me why the composites don't show phase 5 being cold for the NW.  At least half of the good cold snaps we have seen the past several years are when the MJO is in the Maritime Continent and specifically phase 5.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

5 is actually where we get most of our Arctic outbreaks.  You are certainly correct the ECMWF MJO forecast is unimpressive.

Phase 5 is generally warm for PNW until the second week of December.

Wavelengths grow through December which changes the spatial relationship.

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22 minutes ago, Phil said:

Phase 5 is generally warm for PNW until the second week of December.

Wavelengths grow through December which changes the spatial relationship.

Dewey used to be all about the wavelengths. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

More wildfires next summer?

If we are lucky! :(

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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EC Ensemble

EC_ensemble.gif

1607558400-uuIAu1odws0.png

 

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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9 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

What does the 500mb Height Anomaly look like?

EC_ensemble_500mb.gif

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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I'm off. I have a lot of Thanksgiving baking to do today. Root for sexy 12z runs! C'MON Block! C'MON Cold Pool! C'MON Fake Cold! C'MON RETROGRESSION!

6z GFS in 52 minutes

12z GFS in 6 hours 52 minutes

12z GEM in 7 hours 22 minutes

12z ECMWF in 9 hours 7 minutes

Think Cold and SNOW!!!! C'MON!!!!
❄️☃️❄️⛄️❄️🌬❄️☃️❄️⛄️❄️🌬
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23 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

I'm off. I have a lot of Thanksgiving baking to do tomorrow. Root for sexy 12z runs! C'MON Block! C'MON Cold Pool! C'MON Fake Cold! C'MON RETROGRESSION!

6z GFS in 52 minutes

12z GFS in 6 hours 52 minutes

12z GEM in 7 hours 22 minutes

12z ECMWF in 9 hours 7 minutes

Think Cold and SNOW!!!! C'MON!!!!
❄️☃️❄️⛄️❄️🌬❄️☃️❄️⛄️❄️🌬

Ditto. Early morning and the overnight GFS would just be a tease like the last 2 times.

42F with the occasional shower but mostly dry. Time for bed.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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It's strange how I like the bleak model runs so much.

Things change so fast. That means bad model runs can flip the script super fast just like great model runs can.

When we are enjoying great model runs I am constantly nervous because a flip means we flip to bad. When model runs are bleak we have the potential to flip to great.

Therefore, I'm just fine with bleak model runs because a fast flip brings the goods.

I know bleak runs sometimes come to fruition but I still enjoy the constant state of a possible positive flip as opposed to the opposite.

Weird stuff I know but that's how my brain works. Ha!

 

 

 

 

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Mountain passes look beautiful this morning.

My parents are getting some snow showers in the Treasure Valley this Thanksgiving Eve, as well. 

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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50 minutes ago, rsktkr said:

It's strange how I like the bleak model runs so much.

Things change so fast. That means bad model runs can flip the script super fast just like great model runs can.

When we are enjoying great model runs I am constantly nervous because a flip means we flip to bad. When model runs are bleak we have the potential to flip to great.

Therefore, I'm just fine with bleak model runs because a fast flip brings the goods.

I know bleak runs sometimes come to fruition but I still enjoy the constant state of a possible positive flip as opposed to the opposite.

Weird stuff I know but that's how my brain works. Ha!

 

 

 

 

I get this.

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