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November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


TigerWoodsLibido

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1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

If I were a bookie it would be probly +100 on a regional lowland event. Most years for us it'd be like +550 or so.

Apparently there’s a few sites where you can actually make bets on weather.

betonweather.io is one of them, but I don’t know which one is the best one.

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Jim when do you think we see our big stuff? Phil any guesses? 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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6 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

I just let my parents know about the snow in the third week of December. I can’t wait.

Probably best to let other people know too! Maybe we can get josh on an NWS call again so we can nail down specific dates and times. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Down to 38F. Can see Jupiter and Saturn.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Kramer Giddy Up GIFs | Tenor

1606348800-lrKkAK2RnPk.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Great euro weeklies. Twl May get a white Christmas!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 hours ago, Phil said:

IPWP convection quickly becomes a cold west signal by the middle of December (it’s a warm signal now under +EAMT).

Might regret this post later, but I’d honestly be surprised if the lower elevations don’t see accumulating snowfall during the third week of the month.

In fact, the entire second half of December would appear to hold potential upon early extrapolation. Most interested I’ve been in a pattern since 2018/19.

Are you suggesting a February 2019 pattern possible in the PNW during the third week of December?

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33 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

Fantasy shown on the CFS control run. Highly unlikely to verify but would be epic if by some miracle it did. 😃cfs-daily-all-c00-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-0064000.thumb.png.6c311745c68d269705c4b597bb99c071.pngcfs-daily-all-c00-nhemi-t2m_c_anom_7day-0064000.thumb.png.a6cd1c47136430daac19186b7ce8b560.png

The ECMWF weeklies control looked similar.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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31 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

It's not taking the Rockies in to account, they would block most of that cold air.

That block is where it was in Jan 1950.  The Rockies didn't stop that.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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33 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

00z also looks rijy.

Yup.  The models are pretty confident it changes big time in mid December though.  The major shift will probably begin around the 9th or 10th.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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35 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

As I said, fantasy that is highly unlikely to verify. I just posted it for fun. 😀

He does not like fun.  He is a realist, pragmatic to the core, and if we weren’t so naively silly we would see things his way and our lives would be easier, richer, less disappointing.  

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No doubt the 0z GFS shows fake cold galore.  I'm not buying the longer duration of the ridge right over us yet though.  The GFS is all over the place with the MJO piece of the puzzle on recent runs.  How that plays out is going to be a big factor.  The EPS has been much more consistent with its MJO forecast in recent day so I imagine it will look much the same as recent runs.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Right now this upcoming week looks like it's going to be a Crown Point special.  I have been watching this stuff for years and have figured a couple of things out about these very high freezing level fake cold snaps.  The big takeaway is that in spite of very strong cross Cascade pressure gradients the east winds have a hard time surfacing in places that it normally would with only a few exceptions.  The Columbia River Gorge is one of those place and it ends up receiving an abnormally high percentage of the air attempting to cross the Cascades.  Places like where I live are often shrouded in cold fog in spite of pressure gradients that would normally be giving me 40 mph winds.  A really weird phenomenon.  In short Crown Point should get blasted hard this coming week.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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