November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

You really need to quit taking every post seriously.

You sounded dead serious to me.

[Deweydog]

for the residents at Crown Point!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Right now this upcoming week looks like it's going to be a Crown Point special.  I have been watching this stuff for years and have figured a couple of things out about these very high freezing level fake cold snaps.  The big takeaway is that in spite of very strong cross Cascade pressure gradients the east winds have a hard time surfacing in places that it normally would with only a few exceptions.  The Columbia River Gorge is one of those place and it ends up receiving an abnormally high percentage of the air attempting to cross the Cascades.  Places like where I live are often shrouded in cold fog in spite of pressure gradients that would normally be giving me 40 mph winds.  A really weird phenomenon.  In short Crown Point should get blasted hard this coming week.

Yep. With a Columbia Basin cold pool the cold air is quite shallow around or just below 3000' and that inversion tends to 'squeeze' the air through the Gorge as you stated the maximum energy from the pressure difference is focused entirely through the Gorge. I live for these patterns. Areas east of I-205(my house) get blasted, and of course Corbett, Crown Point, western Gorge it will be very strong.

6z GFS in 3 hours 17 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[snow_wizard]

This big ridge coming up kind of reminds of earlier in the season when we had a huge ridge and we were talking about a big reversal later on.  The reversal came and gave us two impressive cold snaps in the late October to early November time frame.  Makes it seem kind of likely it will happen that way again.  We will know soon enough!

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Yep. With a Columbia Basin cold pool the cold air is quite shallow around or just below 3000' and that inversion tends to 'squeeze' the air through the Gorge as you stated the maximum energy from the pressure difference is focused entirely through the Gorge. I live for these patterns. Areas east of I-205(my house) get blasted, and of course Corbett, Crown Point, western Gorge it will be very strong.

6z GFS in 3 hours 17 minutes

It is quite interesting.  It seems like every time Crown Point gets those 100 mph winds I'm in cold fog where I live and this is normally an east wind area.  The shallow nature of the cold pool must be the reason.

[GHweatherChris]

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You sounded dead serious to me.

50/50.  But seriously, you should know after me being on here 12 years that I want the coldest, baddest and snowiest winter possible every year.

I just like to keep my expectations in check. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Down to 34F. Might hit a freeze? Gonna be close.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 Monstrosity block/ridge

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 Jeez....

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[snow_wizard]

28 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 6 Monstrosity block/ridge

I've never really seen anything like this block.  It's just a huge atmospheric train wreck.  This could be going somewhere really good.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

Really hard to get much drier than that this time of year.

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I've never really seen anything like this block.  It's just a huge atmospheric train wreck.  This could be going somewhere really good.

And that has steadily moved ahead in timing. Remember when that block was at Day 9-10?.... Remarkable consistency in handling that.

 

00z GEFS, CMCE keep us in a big ridge/block, inversion, cold pool, 'fake cold', east wind pattern forever.

[snow_wizard]

Amazing fact for the night...the average HIGH at Fort Vancouver in January 1862 was a bone chilling 26.8 F!  What would Rob have done on the day there was a 21 - 9 spread with 50mph East winds?  Every time I look at the records for that month chills run down my spine.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

And that has steadily moved ahead in timing. Remember when that block was at Day 9-10?.... Remarkable consistency in handling that.

 

00z GEFS, CMCE keep us in a big ridge/block, inversion, cold pool, 'fake cold', east wind pattern forever.

We could go straight from fake cold to real cold or very close to it.  That actually happened in late Jan / early Feb 1985.

[Gradient Keeper]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Amazing fact for the night...the average HIGH at Fort Vancouver in January 1862 was a bone chilling 26.8 F!  What would Rob have done on the day there was a 21 - 9 spread with 50mph East winds?  Every time I look at the records for that month chills run down my spine.

I would have repeatedly wet myself while being glued to the window watching it unfold. January 2004 I had a 14.9, 9.8 day with blizzard conditions. That was fun.

[Gradient Keeper]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We could go straight from fake cold to real cold or very close to it.  That actually happened in late Jan / early Feb 1985.

We could. I've seen many times where we go into these persistent big ridge, fake cold, east wind patterns and then the block retrogrades evolving into a cold pattern/arctic blast. That is exactly how I think this will play out, but as Tiger has said 417 times(I counted ), we need to be patient. He's right. This feels so much like 2008 all over again. C'MON!!!!

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

We could. I've seen many times where we go into these persistent big ridge, fake cold, east wind patterns and then the block retrogrades evolving into a cold pattern/arctic blast. That is exactly how I think this will play out, but as Tiger has said 417 times(I counted ), we need to be patient. He's right. This feels so much like 2008 all over again. C'MON!!!!

In December?

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Deweydog said:

In December?

and January. Yup.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

and January. Yup.

Which ones am I missing in December?

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS, CMCE 500mb Height Anomaly Day 8-16 GIF

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

EPS getting more interesting.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

EPS getting more interesting.

 

Hmmm! Yep. Nice ridge bridge too. C'MON!!!!

Thanks

[snow_wizard]

The EPS is even more aggressive in switching to the PNA to minus now.  The deed is done by the 10th.

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

EPS getting more interesting.

 

Almost miraculous how fast that flips.  Amazing.

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The EPS is even more aggressive in switching to the PNA to minus now.  The deed is done by the 10th.

No complaints here!

6z GFS in 1 hour 29 minutes

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Hmmm! Yep. Nice ridge bridge too. C'MON!!!!

Thanks

Indeed.  I didn't even notice the west based -NAO when I first looked.

[Gradient Keeper]

@Brian_in_Leavenworth 850s chilly?

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

@Brian_in_Leavenworth 850s chilly?

 

[snow_wizard]

Good CFS run tonight also.  I'm getting stoked now.

[Gradient Keeper]

Colder runs ahead. MBG!

[Omegaraptor]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

 

At least it moves the current pattern out of the way. Let’s get some actual Arctic cold on our side of the pole. C’MON!

[snow_wizard]

The evolution on the EPS is insane.  There have to be a lot of members seeing a big change.

[GHweatherChris]

16 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

At least it moves the current pattern out of the way. Let’s get some actual Arctic cold on our side of the pole. C’MON!

That is the big piece missing .