The Swamp Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 Not much to see there if you ask me. Fake cold and some fog but quite seasonable. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, puyallupjon said: That's the 6Z. 18Z ensembles not out yet. Phil said more of the EPS ensemble members are turning cold. A ways to go of course. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 18z GFS Day 10.5 looking quite promising. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 Day 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 1 hour ago, Jesse said: We had an average temp slightly below freezing in January 2017. There were times before that when I thought we would never experience another month with an average temp near or below freezing, but there it was. At least for the Portland area, I think we will appreciate January 2017 more and more as time goes on. Wasn’t quite as cold up here and we didn’t get any measurable snowfall in January 2017...but it’s our 2nd coldest month on record in the 21st century behind February 2019. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 1 hour ago, Jesse said: I think everywhere in the lowlands had a bit of a snow drought in the mid-late 70s. The drop off was especially stark relative to what they had seen in the immediate past. Back in the day I remember it being attributed to the PDO flip in the mid seventies. That was back when we thought we were on the verge of another muti-decadal -PDO starting in the late 90s (in conjunction with the 1998-99 La Nina). I know this area has seen some dry groups of winters in the past. Even in the mid-1900's or late-1800's I don't think Klamath Falls has ever seen a decade straight of solid winter (either at or above avg). I was telling locals in 2014-2015 not to worry about our snow going away. It comes and goes. 93-94 saw only 8" but the one before dumped 80". lol Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 Day 12.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 1 hour ago, Jginmartini said: Then you get to my age and the notebook just kind of disappears as life takes a hold of you! Mines in a box somewhere from when I lived in Troutdale. Luckily Matt Zaffino who hasn’t aged has a copy of my notes as well I have 2 separate books...both have daily and monthly logs from 2005-2020. One of the books has more of the statistics regarding monthly rainfall, snowfall records ect. I’ll do my best not to lose it I’ve been working on the books for a long time. I’d like to transcribe records from back in the day before I was around as well just to have on hand but that would take lots of time. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 This sh!t @ss inversion has broken at least for an afternoon. Wall to wall sunshine and 50 degrees. Nice. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 I would think fairly soon the ensembles will pick up on the SSW/pattern change and that be reflected with the 500mb Height Anomaly. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said: I know this area has seen some dry groups of winters in the past. Even in the mid-1900's or late-1800's I don't think Klamath Falls has ever seen a decade straight of solid winter (either at or above avg). I was telling locals in 2014-2015 not to worry about our snow going away. It comes and goes. 93-94 saw only 8" but the one before dumped 80". lol My wife was only 4 years old in 92-93 but she talks about how much It snowed there in Klamath all the time. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: My wife was only 4 years old in 92-93 but she talks about how much I showed there in Klamath all the time. Seeing snow is a guarantee, it's close to impossible to see 0". But not that rare to have 2 winters in a row not come close to par on our normal. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 38 minutes ago, Deweydog said: 18z!!! It only shows a dry blast. BUST!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 2 hours ago, ShawniganLake said: That would have been a tough season for Tiger. There was a lot of good stuff up north that year. That was a crazy winter. Coldest on record for a lot of the East, too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 1 minute ago, FroYoBro said: It only shows a dry blast. BUST!!!! Still a LITTLE time for some fine tuning of small details... 4 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 2 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Still not an excuse to act like a prick on my part. I feel like owning it is better than just carrying on any stupid points for me. On another note, I've been having this sensation of my consciousness moving all around my body since I woke up and it's really messing things up for some reason. Taking me forever to type this out...oof. You weren't acting like a prick, hope my post didn't come across that way. Just wanted to answer since you had asked about that stat. And you're still correct in pointing out that 2019-20 was a historically mild winter down your way. You're right that it was the first DJF to not have a sub 40 high at Eugene since 1933-34. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 Two runs in a row bring cold air to the NW by mid December. The 18z is a little faster, but looks more like a warning shot than the big one. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 1 hour ago, Jesse said: I think everywhere in the lowlands had a bit of a snow drought in the mid-late 70s. The drop off was especially stark relative to what they had seen in the immediate past. Back in the day I remember it being attributed to the PDO flip in the mid seventies. That was back when we thought we were on the verge of another muti-decadal -PDO starting in the late 90s (in conjunction with the 1998-99 La Nina). B.C. and NW WA did pretty well in those mid 70s Ninas, but they were lousy here. '76-77 was a dud but then the next three winters were better. Eugene had quite a snow drought though between December 1972 and January 1982. Really no significant events down there in that span, just a few 2" or less events. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 24 minutes ago, puyallupjon said: Not much to see there if you ask me. Fake cold and some fog but quite seasonable. Might see a bunch of days like this down here in early Dec. No pack but hard freezes/fog. This picture was 12/26/2017. 3 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 1 minute ago, iFred said: Looking at the EPS, the only model we should be following, I see that there is greater support for a never ending ridge. Being serious though, my inner weenie tells me that this might be the winter of fake cold and an early spring. There doesn’t seem to be anything that moves that ridge and there is nothing building in the Atlantic or Southeast to stop rapid progression. 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, iFred said: Looking at the EPS, the only model we should be following, I see that there is greater support for a never ending ridge. Being serious though, my inner weenie tells me that this might be the winter of fake cold and an early spring. There doesn’t seem to be anything that moves that ridge and there is nothing building in the Atlantic or Southeast to stop rapid progression. Early springs are a hallmark of strong Ninas. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 Chilly but nothing crazy. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 28, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 Meh...it'll get better. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 11 minutes ago, iFred said: Looking at the EPS, the only model we should be following, I see that there is greater support for a never ending ridge. Being serious though, my inner weenie tells me that this might be the winter of fake cold and an early spring. There doesn’t seem to be anything that moves that ridge and there is nothing building in the Atlantic or Southeast to stop rapid progression. Me thinks you are trying to stir the pot. 1 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 1 minute ago, iFred said: Ok hot shot fake lawyer, how do you see this pattern progressing. Mind you, the wrong answer will lead to a ban where you can use your new found free time to grouse on Mark’s blog. The ECMWF weeklies look nothing like what you described. They showed a good pattern developing for mid December to early January. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, iFred said: Ok hot shot fake lawyer, how do you see this pattern progressing. Mind you, the wrong answer will lead to a ban where you can use your new found free time to grouse on Mark’s blog. WUACD’s, my furry friend Fred! All ridging eventually goes to heaven, even during weak/moderate cold ENSO episodes. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 28, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The ECMWF weeklies look nothing like what you described. They showed a good pattern developing for mid December to early January. Pretty sure he's flicking shitt. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 Starting to get a little concerned about my December forecast. 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 What we really need right now is some "world salad" from Phil. I just know that's what this pattern needs. "Word salad". 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 16 minutes ago, Deweydog said: WUACD’s, my furry friend Fred! All ridging eventually goes to heaven, even during weak/moderate cold ENSO episodes. Weak??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Jesse said: Weak??? We’d probably be better off, but it’ll probably end up moderate. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 The 18z ensemble looks a bit more in line with the operational. A lot more cold members by the 10th. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 16 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Starting to get a little concerned about my December forecast. Which was? Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 29, 2020 Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: Which was? Warmish/wettish. The nice thing is we can often make up some cool early month anomalies in a hurry later in the month as averages bottom out. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2020 Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 The ensemble control model shows a cold wave hitting at the same time as the operational GFS. Hmmmm.. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 29, 2020 Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 11 minutes ago, Deweydog said: We’d probably be better off, but it’ll probably end up moderate. A cold and wet spring is probably just as important to me as a cold and snowy winter. So I guess it depends on perspective. 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2020 Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: Warmish/wettish. The nice thing is we can often make up some cool early month anomalies in a hurry later in the month as averages bottom out. I started as skeptical for anything good until very late December but now I'm not sure. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 29, 2020 Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 Just now, Jesse said: A cold and wet spring is probably just as important to me as a cold and snowy winter. So I guess it depends on perspective. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2020 Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 1 minute ago, Jesse said: A cold and wet spring is probably just as important to me as a cold and snowy winter. So I guess it depends on perspective. A cold / wet spring is important for feeding the glaciers. I would really like to see those start to move forward again. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 29, 2020 Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I started as skeptical for anything good until very late December but now I'm not sure. Assuming this persistence-loving phase in the models is just that, a phase, I’d go with a return to westerlies. Question is whether the blocking can work in a little something backdoor before it ages out and dies. Or..... it’s the mid 1980’s all over again... 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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