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November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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13 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

cliPCPNdur.pl?357809+29+1+1+1

Late Nov/early December is statistically the wettest time of year. But as you can see it doesn't really start dropping off much until almost April. 

cliPCPNdur.pl?357809+29+5+1+1

That's a little misleading. SEA, for instance, averages 35% less precip in February than November.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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5 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

us_reanalyse-en-087-0_modera5_198902030900_15805_149.thumb.png.478a3d17662a2a7f730ec3fe5757b8fe.png

I was playing with reanalysis from the last century, and decided to revisit February 1989. It's crazy to see just how anomalous that event really was..... A 1972mb Frankensteinian PV lobe directly from Russia locked into western Canada with true arctic air funneling into the Region.

The result? The Siberian Express of the century with Seattle notching its first sub-20 high temperature since the infamous January of 1950, this time without the aid of a two foot snowpack, then barely kissing the vingt mark the very next day. To top it off, five inches of powdered sugar to coat the region in a glistening, enchanting white. The stuff of dreams for model weenies and aspiring mets like those on our forum...

 

It gets me so worked up that I may never see something like this in and around the Seattle area in my lifetime. Our warming climate is making these kinds of events nearly impossible nowadays, growing ever more unlikely each year, no matter how few sunspots manifest, or how many cubic meters of ash from Indonesia are injected into the stratosphere... Though I do sometimes hold out hope that we may squeeze out another event like this, or two, god forbid, before our climate drifts off into obscurity and unrecognition when I am an older man. After all, anomalous events are bound to happen.

That was an incredible event.  As I've mentioned on here before I clearly remember everything freezing up in the afternoon on January 31 when the Arctic front was still hours away.  Just the fringes of that beast were brutally cold.  The day the cold air arrived I stood in disbelief when it was snowing sideways at a temperature of 14 in the middle of the afternoon.

A couple of points.  One is SEA had highs below 20 in December 1968, and the other is there is still no proof the recent warming is not largely the result of natural cycles.  I highly doubt we will see the day we don't get snow in the winter anytime soon.  There is plenty of evidence the solar aspect is a big deal.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

That's a little misleading. SEA, for instance, averages 35% less precip in February than November.

Yeah.  There is really no comparison overall in this area.  Interestingly SEA used to be wetter in December than November though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like whatever we get at the end of next week may be quick hitting and short lived. I'm fine with that. 

I suppose if it won't be a dry Dec like 2011 I'll take anything.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like whatever we get at the end of next week may be quick hitting and short lived. I'm fine with that. 

Could be.  Might be just a warning.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah.  There is really no comparison overall in this area.  Interestingly SEA used to be wetter in December than November though.

I think my place has a wetter November (and March) than much of winter, because far fewer heavy rains occur in Jan/Feb. Lately though it seems like it's tough to get November showers last few years. 

Exceptions like Feb 2019 of course, I'm sure that one with just the SWE factored alone was pretty wet.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Huge improvement on the GFS ensemble mean over the past 4 runs.  In that span the mean for the period around the 11th has gone from +3 to -2.5.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, puyallupjon said:

Maybe some cooler weather and good mountain snow pack building in mid-December.  Still don't really see the big blast so many of you are pining away for.

Screen Shot 2020-11-29 at 10.18.29 AM.png

It could happen, but it will probably be later.  You're the one that's been saying we will get nailed this winter.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, puyallupjon said:

Maybe some cooler weather and good mountain snow pack building in mid-December.  Still don't really see the big blast so many of you are pining away for.

Screen Shot 2020-11-29 at 10.18.29 AM.png

Don’t think anyone said there would be. Set up could lead to colder weather in a couple weeks but we have no idea still when or if it’ll get cold or how cold it’ll even be. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Pretty clear whatever we get late next week will be a little blip. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Don’t think anyone said there would be. Set up could lead to colder weather in a couple weeks but we have no idea still when or if it’ll get cold or how cold it’ll even be. 

I think the solutions the GFS has been spitting out would be solidly chilly for sure.  Most have been showing a Canadian cold front coming through.  I'm actually hoping the really big stuff holds off for a while, but for an overall cold regime until then.  In the short term we have a lot of frost coming up.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, puyallupjon said:

January

01/18/2012 ;)

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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47 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

That's a little misleading. SEA, for instance, averages 35% less precip in February than November.

The graph I posted was for my area. February averages about 10-15% less than November, March averages about the same as February. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF showing a warm rain pattern by day 9.

Seems a lot more likely than continued ridging. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Seems a lot more likely than continued ridging. 

Yeah... I sense we go back to a zonal, wet pattern after this dry period.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... I sense we go back to a zonal, wet pattern after this dry period.

That’s the direction my untrained eye thought the 00z was going last night. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... I sense we go back to a zonal, wet pattern after this dry period.

I'd actually rather have at least one more atmospheric river event before transitioning back to snow. 

Maybe we can get some wind out of that too.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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In the big picture a pattern reset is probably good news. This current regime will be over before we know it. 

  • Storm 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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49 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

And just like that, the fog clears and I have my view of Mt. Baker back. 38°F but I expect it to start warming rapidly now that the sun is out.

And just like that I’m in heavy Fog!  Adrienne Barbeau didn’t even warn me! Thanks Tacoma  haha 
Ugh....want my blue sky back 

 

38*

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5 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

And just like that I’m in heavy Fog!  Adrienne Barbeau didn’t even warn me! Thanks Tacoma  haha 
Ugh....want my blue sky back 

 

38*

53 and sunny out here... take a short drive!

  • Sun 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS shows the cold centered in the middle of the country at the end of the run like previous runs...

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-7947200.png

Looks like a lot of people really fooled themselves.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like a lot of people really fooled themselves.

Although it could just be a precursor to a pattern that will retrograde in late December... we have seen that evolution before.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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13 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Apply liberally to affected area.  Use as directed.

38958AC2-57D2-4F50-8421-C209D499E471.jpeg

Possible side effects:

bleeding gums, dry eyes, constipation and dizziness

after applying arctic blast if you experience an erection that last more than four hours contact the site administrator iFred and STOP looking at the 18z GFS.  An arctic blast is not imminent. 

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23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like a lot of people really fooled themselves.

I don’t even think Jim was fully on board or anyone really. Wasn’t like it was ever within 10 days even. 

  • Thanks 1

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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12 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I don’t even think Jim was fully on board or anyone really. Wasn’t like it was ever within 10 days even. 

I'm just trolling. I think we are still good for fun around Christmas/NY.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Anything can go between now and the second week of December. This was 2015, Klamath Falls the first 10-11 days or so had no measurable snow, then it just dumped white rest of the month. And look what Crater Lake NP did once that winter really got serious. This was my snowiest December in the last decade here (33.1"). 2nd one was 2010 with around 22".

12466235_919723614776876_8797757704779724368_o.jpg

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  • Snow 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2 hours ago, Jginmartini said:

And just like that I’m in heavy Fog!  Adrienne Barbeau didn’t even warn me! Thanks Tacoma  haha 
Ugh....want my blue sky back 

 

38*

It should not contain demons since we are nearly in December. Demons only appear from The Fog from October 1st thru October 31st. 

  • lol 2

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I don’t even think Jim was fully on board or anyone really. Wasn’t like it was ever within 10 days even. 

I was and still am...fully onboard! I’m heading to Brennan’s illegal cabin in the woods shortly to enjoy the Siberian Express February 1989 style! 
Currently 50 degrees and partly cloudy. Lovely day! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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