November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Requiem]

Easterlies look gusty next week in the Gorge and parts of PDX.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 (Past 4 runs)

[Rubus Leucodermis]

30/46 for the day here. Not cooling off nearly so fast tonight; clouds from the incoming system are limiting radiational cooling.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 hours ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Melts have gotten crazier than that.

One day my brother was coming to visit, we had 6.6" fall on the morning of 02/07/2017, he came off Amtrak at 10pm, didn't believe me when I said we had half a foot of snow. There was maybe an inch in spots of the yard.

When I was a teen and prone to rising late, one Mother's Day I missed out entirely on the 2-3" that had fallen overnight. It had all melted by 11:00 AM, when I finally rose. This was in northern New Mexico at about 6400 feet.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[SouthHillFrosty]

9 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

Wow. Snoqualmie Pass might have a later opening this year.

[High Desert Mat?]

18 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 9'er

Lame

[GobBluth]

19 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 9'er

Greenland block has us screwed.

[Gradient Keeper]

Very lame.

[MossMan]

26 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I haven’t experienced it since January 2020.

Lowest temp I had in January 2020 was 19 if I remember correctly...But had moderate snow falling at that time! I was okay with freezing my a** off plowing! 

[Gradient Keeper]

GEM looks far more promising for ridge merger/retrogression than the GFS.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

10 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

GEM looks far more promising for ridge merger/retrogression than the GFS.

Eh, I'm not seeing it. Patience.

[Gradient Keeper]

We just have to be patient. Quite good potential ahead.

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Eh, I'm not seeing it. Patience.

After Day 8. You'll see

[MossMan]

Phase 1 complete. Phase 2 will be white lights on a few of the larger trees/shrubs in the landscaping, but that will be next weekend. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Q: How do you keep a model rider in suspense?

(The answer is coming in only 10 days or so.)

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

We just have to be patient. Quite good potential ahead.

Yep we haven’t even started December yet! I have a feeling model riding will be in overdrive by mid to late week! 

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, MossMan said:

Yep we haven’t even started December yet! I have a feeling model riding will be in overdrive by mid to late week! 

Agreed. Just like 2008. C'MON!!!!

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Phase 1 complete. Phase 2 will be white lights on a few of the larger trees/shrubs in the landscaping, but that will be next weekend. 

I was just outside and the sky looks exactly the same here.

[Deweydog]

Patients.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS Day 8-11 - Unlike the OP run, quite sharp retrogression noted. Not yet far enough west or amplified quite enough, but closer and you can see the potential is there. This is why the OP runs after Day 6(roughly) are pretty much pure hot garbage.

[Phil]

16 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I only have faint memories of the December 1990 blast. All other arctic events in my memory were just cold air funneling in slowly. Even when there was a defined arctic boundary it was not very dramatic. 
 

Would be cool to see again. Fortunately I have been able to experience dramatic arctic blasts in other parts of the country. But these big league air masses are hard to come by these days. 

It is hard to imagine something like February 1989, December 1990 happening in our present climate. 
 

We have not even had a true regional blast in 7 years. 

Everyone says this until it happens.

Just 5 years ago, we had our coldest February upper level airmass ever recorded (2nd coldest all time). If that airmass had occurred in January it would’ve easily set the record.

Yes, a 1989 event will happen again. Count on it.

[Phil]

59 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

Greenland block has us screwed.

Greenland block (verbatim) is helping the retrogression back to -PNA mid-month.

Most retrogressions involve NAMT. Vortex pattern wouldn’t be helpful there.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

 

[Phil]

BTW the 00z GFS is back to -PNA/canonical niña by the end of week 2. Which is what I think the pattern will look like by then.

[Dave]

34 degrees under clear skies. Decent chance we could bag a 32 degree midnight low before clouds move in. Also a decent chance of seeing freezes just about every day for the next week. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

BTW the 00z GFS is back to -PNA/canonical niña by the end of week 2. Which is what I think the pattern will look like by then.

Conversation

 

 

 

 

MJVentrice

 

@MJVentrice

 

The African standing wave is now breaking down as low-frequency tropical forcing slowly shifts eastward with time, moving towards more of a canonical La Nina forcing state.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[Deweydog]

Canonical might be the word of winter 2020-21.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Bright out there. Down to 32.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

[MossMan]

Going though my January 2020 snow pics I had forgotten that I had documented a good example of how just a tad more elevation makes all the difference when the setup is marginal. This was on the 10th, I had some sloppy accumulations here at my house at 550’ but had quickly melted off the trees. I took the dogs up to our neighbors 40 acres which is nearly 700’ and it was a winter wonderland. All I had to to was take a couple minute walk up the steep pathway to get to it. I love where I live! 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8