November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You may be the most substantive poster on this forum. 

Thanks!  Just glad to be able to share the maps.  I will leave the analysis to those more knowledgeable 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Here's the full EC ensemble run

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Here's the full EC ensemble run

Hopefully improvement continues...

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

8 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

This is getting attention this morning in the Canadian forums, and since the maps therein show that the BC forecast will generally apply to WA and OR as well, figured it’s worth a share.

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/news/article/canada-2021-winter-forecast-snow-and-cold-temperature-predictions

Good find.  A snippet, like how they think the colder pattern locks in.

BRITISH COLUMBIA

A cold and stormy winter is expected to dominate across the province. While the first half of December will be rather mild, we expect a much colder pattern will develop during the second half of December and the cold pattern should continue through most of January and February. This will also bring a heightened risk for extended periods of frigid weather and heavy snow across the province, including in the Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island

 

 

[Deweydog]

It snowed tonight a year ago!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

41 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Here is the last half of the EPS.  Also, the weeklies come out today, will be watching.

 

Seems like it’s going somewhere toward the end if we pull out the extrapolation station. 

[Gradient Keeper]

51 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Here is the last half of the EPS.  Also, the weeklies come out today, will be watching.

 

Exactly what I was expecting. Thanks.

[Blizzard777]

23 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

It snowed tonight a year ago!

It was a midnight snow!  I remember

I was in Tigard and stayed ups to enjoy the quick dusting 

[Link]

17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Seems like it’s going somewhere toward the end if we pull out the extrapolation station. 

Is it hard to pull out? Does it require a CT scan or an MRI?

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Link said:

Is it hard to pull out? Does it require a CT scan or an MRI?

You need the Bob Ross easel, or borrow Dewey's.

[Timmy]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Control model for right before Christmas Eve looks nice.

This one doesn't look as good as the mean for January but I'll take the improvement in the nearer term over that.

Might as well be the out-of-control-model

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

It snowed tonight a year ago!

Not in my back yard! Though I did have a 22 degree low on 11/29/19! 

[Timmy Supercell]

While it was pouring rain in Wilsonville and pretty much everywhere in the metro Christmas Eve 2015, I get a voicemail that our shed collapsed in K-Falls (it was an old one) and 18" inches of snow with icicles in the yard.

One of the rainiest Decembers west of the cascades but one of the snowiest Decembers just right on over the other side.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Here is the 5 day 500mb anamolies from the weeklies:

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like we finished the month -0.2F and 6.97” of rain for the month. 1/2” above average rainfall as well. Just one freeze this month and one freeze the whole fall. 

[Deweydog]

26 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

According to this (very) low resolution snowfall map, we are going to be buried for Christmas!

Poor Sunnyside appears to live up to its name!

[MossMan]

We need Tim to book a vacation to Palm Springs to seal the deal! 

[Timmy Supercell]

9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

We need Tim to book a vacation to Palm Springs to seal the deal! 

A Mark Nelsen vacation will add the icing to the cake. 

[Timmy Supercell]

29 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Looks like we finished the month -0.2F and 6.97” of rain for the month. 1/2” above average rainfall as well. Just one freeze this month and one freeze the whole fall. 

I'm both below average precipitation and below on snow. I couldn't get either category right.

Didn't think it'd be this hard to get rain in late Fall.

[FroYoBro]

Pretty warm afternoon here as we avoided most of the showers in the area. Up to 53. 

[Omegaraptor]

Air stagnation advisory issued for the valley until Saturday.

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Air stagnation advisory issued for the valley until Saturday.

Nothing says "Winter!" like multi-day stagnant air, muck, and gloom. Thank God I live near the Gorge.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Those Euro weeklies were something else.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Here is the 5 day 500mb anamolies from the weeklies:

 

Would like to see a better signal sooner, but definitely gets there.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

TOUCHDOWN!!!

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z isn’t bad in the long range. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[MossMan]

Going to put the plow on the mower this weekend! 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Last frame...it's coming

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Druncle gives us some goodies in the clown range.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Baby steps

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Warning shot!!!!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

FWIW the Korean model has been consistently showing the change just before mid December/

[luminen]

51 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

FWIW the Korean model has been consistently showing the change just before mid December/

Amazing. I am amazed how accurate my forecast was (so far). Come on...snooooooow!!!

[El_Nina]

Couple more showers moved through later today total up to 0.44". Glad to see the end of this dry spell coming into sight. 

[umadbro]

.60 today. Looks like I'm going to end the month with 8.86".

[TigerWoodsLibido]

GFS ensemble. End of the run looks like it's picking up something brewing.

[Anti Marine Layer]

26 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

GFS ensemble. End of the run looks like it's picking up something brewing.

The RRR seems to be making a comeback.

[jakerepp]

There was a downpour when I woke up this morning, so I was not expecting the evening to turn out this way. 

[Link]

11 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

The RRR seems to be making a comeback.

How fast does she go down the line if you maximize your coal usage and gradients.etc?