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November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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Downvote this post if you want a windstorm.

Briefly beautiful sunrise this morning. Shot from the car. You can even see the inverted shadow of Mt. Hood.  

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At least Cyberpunk comes out on Dec 10. The hype is some distraction til the models turn favorable again.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 47 (Most recent: Apr 9, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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I recall December 2017 being somewhat inversiony, but we are overdue for some extended inversions. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 hour ago, Jesse said:

Looks decent through the first ten or so days then it kind of goes to hell. Luckily the period after day ten will always be the least accurate anyway.

I don’t see significant differences between D5-10 and D10-15 which aren’t solely a consequence of widening ensemble spread at-range.

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And we have hit 50F.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 47 (Most recent: Apr 9, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

And we have hit 50F.

Up to 45 here with just light mist. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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7 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You and Front Ranger remember this. I do not. It’s the only snow I don’t remember for some reason and it really bothers me!

The one I remember in Silverton was actually not in 1999-00 (I was living in Tacoma area by then), it was in February 1999. Very minor event, just a sloppy inch or two.

Low. Solar.

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Just now, Front Ranger said:

The one I remember in Silverton was actually not in 1999-00 (I was living in Tacoma area by then), it was in February 1999. Very minor event, just a sloppy inch or two.

Okay. I remember a lot of wet snow falls that didn't really amount to more than a dusting in 98-99 and 99-00, it is conceivable there were a couple of events which produced an inch or two in Silverton that didn't amount to much closer to Mt. Angel where I lived. Being up against the hills Silverton usually squeezes out heavier precip rates. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I lived in Yamhill county at the time and in Dec 2000 there was a very sloppy 4" or so on the ground that caused havoc and they sent the kids home early lol. I remember playing football after lunch in the snow. Was one of the best experiences in school I ever had.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 47 (Most recent: Apr 9, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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7 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

4 years ago hope was beginning to build!

5F3EE73D-01FA-4947-8692-954758AAA75D.png

Best Winter I have ever experienced living here in the PNW. Numerous snow events all Winter long. 🌨☃️🥶

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<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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Druncle =DK Fail.gif

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 47 (Most recent: Apr 9, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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I remember the hints the models gave here and there starting around Thanksgiving weekend 2008 (as I was washing my vehicles while wearing shorts/T-shirt) Perhaps we will start seeing at least some eye candy in the models in a week or so. 

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Expanding on the above, the latest ECMWF weeklies continue to show ridging for the first half of December but start to build heights over the Aleutians around mid-month. Perfect timing for white Christmas lovers.

It's been pretty remarkably consistent on this pattern progression as well, FWIW.

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-z500_anom-1606089600-1606953600-1610064000-80.gif

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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Patience

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 47 (Most recent: Apr 9, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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4 hours ago, Jesse said:

Looks like my reputation number just got cut in half.

My heresy on the California thread has angered Fred. Was trying to stick up for Matt. :(

Who cares?

Weren't you the one that said silly internet points don't really matter?

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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59 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Expanding on the above, the latest ECMWF weeklies continue to show ridging for the first half of December but start to build heights over the Aleutians around mid-month. Perfect timing for white Christmas lovers.

It's been pretty remarkably consistent on this pattern progression as well, FWIW.

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-z500_anom-1606089600-1606953600-1610064000-80.gif

I think it is the 4th one in a row to show that.  And goes along with Phil's ideas.

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It's gon' happen. Regional baby.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 47 (Most recent: Apr 9, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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17 hours ago, Phil said:

 

99/00 was actually the rare niña/+QBO fail. Only 2 fails with that combo since the end of WWII (the other one is 1975/76).

Unsurprisingly, 1999/00 had a weird +IOD type signature (destructive interference between standing waves) and went super +EPO. 

IIRC, 1975/76 had that super +NAM regime ongoing (which had been present for several years). The great pacific climate shift immediately followed in 1976/77.

Does this winter have the same weird +IOD type signature that 1999/2000 had?

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*DISCLAIMER!! Incoming opinion Incoming opinion DISCLAIMER*
Today was terrible. I didn’t mind the moderate rain of this morning but it turned into a gooey soaking cold drizzle the rest of the day and it’s still going. Currently 42 degrees. 
.46” so far on the day. 

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2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Expanding on the above, the latest ECMWF weeklies continue to show ridging for the first half of December but start to build heights over the Aleutians around mid-month. Perfect timing for white Christmas lovers.

It's been pretty remarkably consistent on this pattern progression as well, FWIW.

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-z500_anom-1606089600-1606953600-1610064000-80.gif

It has been very consistent showing the PNA going negative around mid month.  The control really gets things going good.

 

cold.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

*DISCLAIMER!! Incoming opinion Incoming opinion DISCLAIMER*
Today was terrible. I didn’t mind the moderate rain of this morning but it turned into a gooey soaking cold drizzle the rest of the day and it’s still going. Currently 42 degrees. 
.46” so far on the day. 

I had a bit of the drizzles as well

45*

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15 minutes ago, MossMan said:

We should set up a zoom meeting with NWS and February 1989 to get to the bottom of this! 

BIG news regarding snow and cold on Christmas Eve 2020 will be discussed on the call. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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Another pretty chilly day with a high of only 45 here.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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FWIW today's 0z CFS showed a massive blast for New Years.  A lot of runs from that model have been excellent for January lately.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Call me crazy, but I am seeing subtle signs of retrogression mainly on the ensembles. Nothing exciting, but the ridge axis clearly shifts westward. Also, some operational runs show building heights offshore. We'll have to be patient and trudge through what looks like a probable-likely ridge, inversion, fake cold regime. This won't be until we're moving through the 2nd week of December. C'MON!!!!

00z GFS in 1 hour 6 minutes

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14 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Nice. At just Day 13 too!

My first snow up here was on the 3/4th of December 2016. We picked up about 4.5". Then on the 7th we got about 1" in Salem while I was at work. I believe PDX had a little snow and there was some ZR too with that. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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