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November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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It's remarkable how consistent the ECMWF weeklies have been in showing the PNA going minus at mid month in December. A good 4 or 5 consecutive runs now.

 

cold.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Downvote this post if you want a windstorm.

Briefly beautiful sunrise this morning. Shot from the car. You can even see the inverted shadow of Mt. Hood.  

Posted Images

It's a pretty big deal we are getting a good signal for a cold January at all.  The default for about the past 30 years has been pretty consistently terrible for that month.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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As interesting as the EPS Control run looks, it’s actually one of the less blocky outcomes amongst the array of solutions in the NPAC.

At least 20 members are dislodging the TPV into BC/Alberta with blocking over AK/Aleutians and Greenland, bottling significant cold into SW Canada. Much higher potential in a setup like that, versus the ones with a tight vortex remaining at the pole.

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40 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That is quite good for that far out.

That’s..putting it lightly.

If I were you guys, I’d take advantage of these next few weeks to rest up. Bound to be some all nighters before long (cough..Rob..cough).

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Just now, Phil said:

That’s..putting it lightly.

If I were you guys, I’d take advantage of these next few weeks to rest up. Bound to be some all nighters before long (cough..Rob..cough).

I have been summoned. But.... BUT.... There's so much to track! Inversions, 925mb temps, PDX-DLS/TTD-DLS gradients! I don't know how to NOT post the 00z runs every night.

00z GFS in 5 hours 33 minutes

00z GEM in 6 hours 3 minutes

00z ECMWF in 7 hours 48 minutes

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12z WRF-GFS
For those east wind fans, freaks, and fanatics, you're going to love this!
 
Tuesday afternoon east wind develops. By Tuesday night it becomes strong and overnight into early Wednesday morning it is absolutely raging.
 
Check out those tightly packed isobars! The PDX/TTD-DLS gradient looks to be around -10mb to -12mb. That's impressive. This is probably the beginning of a long duration east wind event.
 
The 12km Sounding observed over PDX shows an impressive 50-55kts aloft. That's pretty decent. This will be the first east wind event of the Fall season and worthy of a Crown Point visit. C'MON!!!
128100704_209090994057447_16310843560092
128054147_209091220724091_72097857209941
128048498_209094584057088_88839480815435
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25 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:
12z WRF-GFS
For those east wind fans, freaks, and fanatics, you're going to love this!
 
Tuesday afternoon east wind develops. By Tuesday night it becomes strong and overnight into early Wednesday morning it is absolutely raging.
 
Check out those tightly packed isobars! The PDX/TTD-DLS gradient looks to be around -10mb to -12mb. That's impressive. This is probably the beginning of a long duration east wind event.
 
The 12km Sounding observed over PDX shows an impressive 50-55kts aloft. That's pretty decent. This will be the first east wind event of the Fall season and worthy of a Crown Point visit. C'MON!!!
128100704_209090994057447_16310843560092
128054147_209091220724091_72097857209941
128048498_209094584057088_88839480815435

Labor Day windstorm earlier this fall was pretty strong in terms of east wind. Probably would have been worth a visit to crown point if everything wasn’t catching on fire. Even up here we had 55mph gusts. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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There is some strong signal for some cold air to filter into the region mid or 3rd week of Dec. How cold? Still ways out but guess we’ll keep an eye out. In the mean time, rest up and enjoy the calmer period, some of us might need it. 

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44 minutes ago, SnowHawks said:

Well then grab your prozac-model riding here we come.

It’s something to watch but don’t be surprised if it changes. I’ll be watching closely too as there’s nothing else to do with the virus going around keeping everyone home. Really hope this winter delivers in a big way when everyone’s at home during quarantine so everyone can enjoy it at home. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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I'm pretty excited about a realistic shot at decent January this winter.  Historically speaking that is our magical month.  It blows any other month out of the water as far as potential for long lasting cold and snowfall.  Still a long way to go, but the signs are there.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 hour ago, Cloud said:

There is some strong signal for some cold air to filter into the region mid or 3rd week of Dec. How cold? Still ways out but guess we’ll keep an eye out. In the mean time, rest up and enjoy the calmer period, some of us might need it. 

Even in the short term we have some pretty chilly weather coming next week.  Going to get winter off on a cold foot.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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IPWP convection quickly becomes a cold west signal by the middle of December (it’s a warm signal now under +EAMT).

Might regret this post later, but I’d honestly be surprised if the lower elevations don’t see accumulating snowfall during the third week of the month.

In fact, the entire second half of December would appear to hold potential upon early extrapolation. Most interested I’ve been in a pattern since 2018/19.

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Just a little taste of what January can do here.  As an aside this cold wave in January 1886 was actually a pretty typical event in the incredible 1880s.  I like how long lasting the cold was and how snow fell during very cold weather.  The only day I know the depth of the snow for sure is the one day it is given.  Just a nice solid event.  BTW this is from Tacoma.

 

 

Jan 1886a.jpg

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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15 minutes ago, Phil said:

IPWP convection quickly becomes a cold west signal by the middle of December (it’s a warm signal now under +EAMT).

Might regret this post later, but I’d honestly be surprised if the lower elevations don’t see accumulating snowfall during the third week of the month.

In fact, the entire second half of December would appear to hold potential upon early extrapolation. Most interested I’ve been in a pattern since 2018/19.

The thing catching my eye is how fast the heights rise over the North Central Pacific during the second week of December on most models.  Just like a switch is flipped.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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47 minutes ago, Phil said:

IPWP convection quickly becomes a cold west signal by the middle of December (it’s a warm signal now under +EAMT).

Might regret this post later, but I’d honestly be surprised if the lower elevations don’t see accumulating snowfall during the third week of the month.

In fact, the entire second half of December would appear to hold potential upon early extrapolation. Most interested I’ve been in a pattern since 2018/19.

Ok, looks like he has put his chips down.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 47 (Most recent: Apr 9, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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If I were a bookie it would be probly +100 on a regional lowland event. Most years for us it'd be like +550 or so.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 47 (Most recent: Apr 9, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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31 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

If I were a bookie it would be probly +100 on a regional lowland event. Most years for us it'd be like +550 or so.

You are certainly correct that regional events have been very difficult to come by lately.  Things like that are easier to pull off in January.  If we get our Januaries back we might see more of it.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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30 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You are certainly correct that regional events have been very difficult to come by lately.  Things like that are easier to pull off in January.  If we get our Januaries back we might see more of it.

I just don't want you getting really upset when your expectations get let down. I hope you get what you want but sometimes you need to understand this isn't 1950. We can talk at the end of the winter and you can hype any anolag you want but it's a new climate. 

 

 

Best to relaxx and let it happen 

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1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

If I were a bookie it would be probly +100 on a regional lowland event. Most years for us it'd be like +550 or so.

Apparently there’s a few sites where you can actually make bets on weather.

betonweather.io is one of them, but I don’t know which one is the best one.

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Jim when do you think we see our big stuff? Phil any guesses? 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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6 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

I just let my parents know about the snow in the third week of December. I can’t wait.

Probably best to let other people know too! Maybe we can get josh on an NWS call again so we can nail down specific dates and times. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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The BIG December 2008 Snowpocalypse kicked off with the arctic front on the 13-14th if I recall. That's 17-18 days away. The timeline with the potential pattern flip coming up with the Gulf of Alaska/Alaskan block is eerily similar. Just sayin'. C'MON!!!!

 

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Down to 38F. Can see Jupiter and Saturn.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 47 (Most recent: Apr 9, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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