November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Rubus Leucodermis]

48˚F here.

[Jesse]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The thing we want to watch for now is for the progressive nature of the pattern to end.  At least it starts to lock at the end.

Some nice ruby red over the Canadian Arctic in the final frames.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Chilly day in Eugene. 

[Deweydog]

Goddamn progressives...

[TacomaWaWx]

Nice day up to 51...should be an excellent sunset this evening. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That end of the month trough is essentially gone on the 18z. 

[High Desert Mat?]

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

I don’t think I’m downplaying it. That map is showing a 50-60% chance of a cooler than normal winter. 

Which would mean it has a 40-50% chance of an average or warmer winter. Sounds like a coin flip to me. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EUG still stuck at 37

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Weather1011 said:

BBQ?

Yup. Better than anything Chris could grill up.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

The thing we want to watch for now is for the progressive nature of the pattern to end.  At least it starts to lock at the end.

Andrew, Jesse et al will downvote this.

Zonal flow RULEZ.

[FroYoBro]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

EUG still stuck at 37

Very nice inversion day. PDX still at 41. 

[umadbro]

31/41 today. Fog hasn't lifted since just before sunset yesterday.

[FroYoBro]

Yesterday was actually foggier here than today was. High of 44 yesterday and 47 today. Interesting to see the small differences of where the fog is setting up each day. 

[BLI snowman]

High of 41 at PDX today. 54 at SEA.

 

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

High of 41 at PDX today. 54 at SEA.

 

There will be a price to be paid for this...

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

There will be a price to be paid for this...

Arctic front that stalls at 78th street seems likely.

[Deweydog]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

Arctic front that stalls at 78th street seems likely.

Sorry Jess.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EUG only hit 38 if it holds. 

[OysterPrintout]

Never quite made it out of the fog here today. Really was close to a scour out at about 3:30 but we're really socked back in now. Seems like a lot of the metro area saw sun.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Which would mean it has a 40-50% chance of an average or warmer winter. Sounds like a coin flip to me. 

The way it breaks down is:

50% to 60% chance below normal

20 to 25 chance normal

20 to 25 chance above

Not a coin flip.

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

EUG only hit 38 if it holds. 

That's pretty impressive actually.

Meanwhile...up here we may actually eek out an ok min tonight if the clearing holds for a while.  There is a fair easterly gradient, but the angle isn't favorable for the east wind to surface here.  Maybe...just maybe...

[snow_wizard]

22 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Arctic front that stalls at 78th street seems likely.

In all seriousness I have seen one stall in just about that tight of a zone.  I will never forget it.  It was probably late 80s or early 90s and I was living in Bothell.  It was in the low 40s wet, raining, and no snow on the ground.  I drove up to Everett and right about at Lynnwood (where an Arctic front had stalled for about two days) it suddenly went to snow covered ground, icy roads, and snow falling.  That really burned itself into my mind. Way more amazing than the c-zone snows that sometimes hit that area.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

It was a perfect day to get all the Christmas lights and decorations done outside. Just beautiful today. 

I usually wait till after Thanksgiving to do that stuff but with everything that's been going on in 2020, I thought it might be beneficial to start the Christmas cheer a bit earlier this year. 

I had the same idea, but two of the three strings of expensive Christmas lights I bought last year didn't work.  Ticked me off a wee bit.

[MossMan]

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

In all seriousness I have seen one stall in just about that tight of a zone.  I will never forget it.  It was probably late 80s or early 90s and I was living in Bothell.  It was in the low 40s wet, raining, and no snow on the ground.  I drove up to Everett and right about at Lynnwood (where an Arctic front had stalled for about two days) it suddenly went to snow covered ground, icy roads, and snow falling.  That really burned itself into my mind. Way more amazing than the c-zone snows that sometimes hit that area.

I will never forget November 2006...I was in Olympia for a dog agility competition and that Sunday afternoon when I was heading home it was nearly 50 degrees with a warm wind blowing. Get to Seattle and it was upper 30’s. Get to Northgate and had some windshield splats, get to Lynnwood and it was snowing but not sticking, 34 degrees. Get to Everett, sticking snow except on the road. Same until I get to just north of Marysville, suddenly roads covered, by the time I hit Smokey Point there was about a foot of snow on the roads, 32 degrees, heavy snow still falling, power out, trees down everywhere...That was quite the change from 50 degrees in Olympia 2hrs prior. 

[Jesse]

37 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

EUG only hit 38 if it holds. 

Tiger will still be able to complain that they haven’t seen a sub-40 high in the **winter** for the first time in 800 years or whatever. Next.

[MossMan]

21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I had the same idea, but two of the three strings of expensive Christmas lights I bought last year didn't work.  Ticked me off a wee bit.

Me too! As I explained to Matt in the COVID thread. Annoying. 

[Jesse]

46 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

There will be a price to be paid for this...

You are such a superstitious alouicious.

[Weather1011]

42F and cloudy

[Jesse]

39 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

Never quite made it out of the fog here today. Really was close to a scour out at about 3:30 but we're really socked back in now. Seems like a lot of the metro area saw sun.

We were actually driving all over the metro area today and it seemed pretty foggy most spots. West of the west hills had more sun.

Its really socked in in NE Portland right now. 37 degrees.

[Brook from Brookings]

Glorious mountain views today.  Definitely a good start to the mountain snowpack, and the "death" ridge seems to be short-lived.

[BLI snowman]

26 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

In all seriousness I have seen one stall in just about that tight of a zone.  I will never forget it.  It was probably late 80s or early 90s and I was living in Bothell.  It was in the low 40s wet, raining, and no snow on the ground.  I drove up to Everett and right about at Lynnwood (where an Arctic front had stalled for about two days) it suddenly went to snow covered ground, icy roads, and snow falling.  That really burned itself into my mind. Way more amazing than the c-zone snows that sometimes hit that area.

Pretty common dynamic to see, just a question of where it happens. Obviously last January was similar, with the north winds taking hold for just a few hours in Seattle before they switched back to southerly. Lynnwood stayed in pristine offshore flow with deep snowcover. 

Bellingham can often see those battle zones setup right over town. Not uncommon to see Lake Samish ten to fifteen degrees warmer than Bakerview Road on the north end of Bellingham.

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, Brook from Brookings said:

Glorious mountain views today.  Definitely a good start to the mountain snowpack, and the "death" ridge seems to be short-lived.

 My friend John from John Day said it's been awesome in the mountains near him!!!

Hopefully the SW OR Coast Range ski season is a good one this year.

[OysterPrintout]

6 minutes ago, Jesse said:

We were actually driving all over the metro area today and it seemed pretty foggy most spots. West of the west hills had more sun.

Its really socked in in NE Portland right now. 37 degrees.

huh. My bro in Woodstock area said they were clear most of the day and a friend said it was nice out in Troutdale. Girlfriend's parents reported sun most of the day in the Beav. Buddy in Kenton hood said socked in all day there. Really patchy stuff for how persistent it was it seems like.

[BLI snowman]

10 years ago 

[Brook from Brookings]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 My friend John from John Day said it's been awesome in the mountains near him!!!

Hopefully the SW OR Coast Range ski season is a good one this year.

It usually is.  Kind of an anti-Brookings effect, so to speak.

[High Desert Mat?]

52 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The way it breaks down is:

50% to 60% chance below normal

20 to 25 chance normal

20 to 25 chance above

Not a coin flip.

That’s what I said Jim. 40-50% chance average or warmer than normal. Close to a coin flip. 

[Deweydog]

9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

10 years ago 

It was raining.

[FroYoBro]

Clear skies with no fog overhead. Already at my low from this foggy morning at 39 degrees. 

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

It was raining.

Clark County actually had a ~1" snowfall on 11/21/2010. Was in the 40s just to the south.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

The way it breaks down is:

50% to 60% chance below normal

20 to 25 chance normal

20 to 25 chance above

Not a coin flip.

What is normal?

I actually think there’s a 99.99% chance DJF ends up 0.05°F warmer/colder than average.