November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[snow_wizard]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Yeah, but with a moderately strong Nina in progress we stand a low chance of that. I would think. We're either going into a ridge/inversion, cold pool/fake cold regime and then retrogression, or just a blip in the Nina with brief(5-10 days) of weak systems/split flow, and then the jet roars back with a very action pattern resuming.

Yeah....1999-2000 is a bad analog in a lot of ways. It was a Nina, but that's about it for parallels.

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, Jbolin said:

Your slow and somewhat seemingly slow decline into Tim Jr. is a bit concerning, don't worry I can help. 

Put up some more xmas lights
Pet your dogs more
Kiss your kids incessantly
and 

PUT THE F***** PLOW ON THE GODDAMN MOWER ALREADY!

Hope that helps

My Christmas lights don’t work, haven’t gotten around to ordering new ones, my dogs and kids are sleeping, and I can’t have the plow and mower deck on at the same time...99-00 all over again. 
 

And just to make sure everyone knows I am being sarcastic. We will have a white Christmas! Money back guarantee as DJ would say! 

[snow_wizard]

Just looked at the 18z CFS for the heck of it and it was very cold January.  It showed the monthly average a solid -8 for the Puget Sound area.  As I say you have to average them out.

[Skagit Weather]

18 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I think my trees are starting to bud out! And I will need to mow soon. 

Thinking about planting some stuff out in the garden this upcoming week. Too early for peas, beans, squash, and tomatoes?

[ShawniganLake]

17 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I think my trees are starting to bud out! And I will need to mow soon. 

Budding out!  I’m still waiting for the leaves to finish falling.  I spent most of the afternoon blowing and raking at a couple of commercial properties. Lots of leaves still on some of the trees. 

[Phil]

 

28 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That was a case of the Pacific being in hyperdrive.  I think that was a -QBO and we were near solar max not to mention it was a second year Nina.  Not a very good analog.

99/00 was actually the rare niña/+QBO fail. Only 2 fails with that combo since the end of WWII (the other one is 1975/76).

Unsurprisingly, 1999/00 had a weird +IOD type signature (destructive interference between standing waves) and went super +EPO. 

IIRC, 1975/76 had that super +NAM regime ongoing (which had been present for several years). The great pacific climate shift immediately followed in 1976/77.

[Phil]

33 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I know, but I can't get 1999-2000 out of my head. What a nightmare!

I thought you liked Alaska vortexes?

1999/00 had the strongest one ever recorded.

[Meatyorologist]

It's November 22nd.

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It's November 22nd.

Some people forget how awfully boring the models were late November to about December 3rd in 2008.... That changed nearly overnight. Just BANG!

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Some people forget how awfully boring the models were late November to about December 3rd in 2008.... That changed nearly overnight. Just BANG!

What I don't get is that we get a week of ridging and suddenly people are bringing up the CFS, Phil is throwing around 50 acronyms, Tim is posting again, and winter is #cancelled.

It's super unlikely, in any climate, with any SST configuration, that there will be wall-to-wall troughing. That is just unrealistic. Was that just something people... expected? Honestly at a loss of words here.

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

What I don't get is that we get a week of ridging and suddenly people are bringing up the CFS, Phil is throwing around 50 acronyms, Tim is posting again, and winter is #cancelled.

It's super unlikely, in any climate, with any SST configuration, that there will be wall-to-wall troughing. That is just unrealistic. Was that just something people... expected? Honestly at a loss of words here.

u new here?

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

u new here?

Joined literally the week before February 2019. Super lucky timing.

[ShawniganLake]

15 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

99/00 was actually the rare niña/+QBO fail. Only 2 fails with that combo since the end of WWII (the other one is 1975/76).

Unsurprisingly, 1999/00 had a weird +IOD type signature (destructive interference between standing waves) and went super +EPO. 

IIRC, 1975/76 had that super +NAM regime ongoing (which had been present for several years). The great pacific climate shift immediately followed in 1976/77.

75/76 wasn’t all bad a little more north. Better than 99/00. There was consistently chilly weather and a lot of snow around these parts. 

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Joined literally the week before February 2019. Super lucky timing.

This is very normal.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

This is very normal.

I think I'm starting to understand that. Last winter was similar (though of course the atmosphere was stacked against us instead of being in our favor like this year.)

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Down to 42F out there. Nice night.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EC Ensemble

[Gradient Keeper]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

EC Ensemble

For some reason those links never work for me. This is what happens every time I click on them.

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like this run cut the precip totals back a bit. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Welp...

[Link]

5 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

That was a case of the Pacific being in hyperdrive.  I think that was a -QBO and we were near solar max not to mention it was a second year Nina.  Not a very good analog.

We actually had 2 inches of snow that winter in Silverton. Caused school to close.

[Link]

5 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

Budding out!  I’m still waiting for the leaves to finish falling.  I spent most of the afternoon blowing and raking at a couple of commercial properties. Lots of leaves still on some of the trees. 

Going around town at least 40 percent of the trees still have quite a bit of leaves on them and they are still in their mid October stage.  

[Link]

5 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

The other models are trending toward it also.  I actually like the changes in the models tonight.  Looks like a train wreck developing over North America as the jet stream buckles.  That wreckage should just keep piling up further and further off the cost with time.

Did it preform an SPAD? (Signal Passed at Danger?) and a good chewing out by dispatch for it?

[Phil]

6 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

75/76 wasn’t all bad a little more north. Better than 99/00. There was consistently chilly weather and a lot of snow around these parts. 

Interesting info. Nice to have so much local/historical knowledge available.  

[snow_wizard]

The CFS is back on the scent of a cold January.  Looks like at least 4 good runs in a row now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 hours ago, Link said:

We actually had 2 inches of snow that winter in Silverton. Caused school to close.

You and Front Ranger remember this. I do not. It’s the only snow I don’t remember for some reason and it really bothers me!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 years ago hope was beginning to build!

[The Swamp]

[The Swamp]

Looks pretty boring heading into December.

[El_Nina]

0.17" since last evening. Heavy returns on radar this morning did not translate to the ground. 

[MossMan]

.31” so far on the day, 37 degrees and raining currently. 

[High Desert Mat?]

48 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

4 years ago hope was beginning to build!

Best winter that I can remember!!!

[TacomaWaWx]

Low of 42 this morning 0.09” so far to hit 6.37” on the month.

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You and Front Ranger remember this. I do not. It’s the only snow I don’t remember for some reason and it really bothers me!

January 11, 2000 was a decent little midday snowstorm for the Portland area. Picked up about 3" in Vancouver with an anafront style event. Not sure if it made it down that far south but there were snow showers around later that day also.

[jakerepp]

33 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Best winter that I can remember!!!

That's the year we got totally skunked up here, isn't it? Seems like forever ago. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

17 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

That's the year we got totally skunked up here, isn't it? Seems like forever ago. 

You still had cold at least. Instead of us last year who had...nothing.

[MossMan]

13 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

That's the year we got totally skunked up here, isn't it? Seems like forever ago. 

At my house I had a slushy inch almost every weekend in December that year but would melt almost immediately before the backdoor slow as a snail cold air would filter in...Was so maddening! Backdoor action is no good for most of Western Wa. 
Edit: Okay I looked back at my pics and the snowfall we had on the 23rd was enough to keep some on the ground for Christmas morning 2016. However Mr Snowman had almost bent all the way over before the slow bleed of cold air arrived. I complained a lot that winter but at the end of the day it was fun to track so much every week and it did snow...Just not the N/S stuff that does so much better up around my area. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty hard to fathom just how bad the 12z GFS is...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[FroYoBro]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Pretty hard to fathom just how bad the 12z GFS is...

How will anyone survive?

Can we please get a weenie tag Fred?