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November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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Downvote this post if you want a windstorm.

Briefly beautiful sunrise this morning. Shot from the car. You can even see the inverted shadow of Mt. Hood.  

Posted Images

2 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Still not an excuse to act like a prick on my part. I feel like owning it is better than just carrying on any stupid points for me.

On another note, I've been having this sensation of my consciousness moving all around my body since I woke up and it's really messing things up for some reason. Taking me forever to type this out...oof.

You weren't acting like a prick, hope my post didn't come across that way. Just wanted to answer since you had asked about that stat. And you're still correct in pointing out that 2019-20 was a historically mild winter down your way. You're right that it was the first DJF to not have a sub 40 high at Eugene since 1933-34.

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Two runs in a row bring cold air to the NW by mid December.  The 18z is a little faster, but looks more like a warning shot than the big one.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 hour ago, Jesse said:

I think everywhere in the lowlands had a bit of a snow drought in the mid-late 70s. The drop off was especially stark relative to what they had seen in the immediate past. Back in the day I remember it being attributed to the PDO flip in the mid seventies. That was back when we thought we were on the verge of another muti-decadal -PDO starting in the late 90s (in conjunction with the 1998-99 La Nina).

B.C. and NW WA did pretty well in those mid 70s Ninas, but they were lousy here. '76-77 was a dud but then the next three winters were better.

Eugene had quite a snow drought though between December 1972 and January 1982. Really no significant events down there in that span, just a few 2" or less events.

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Looking at the EPS, the only model we should be following, I see that there is greater support for a never ending ridge.

Being serious though, my inner weenie tells me that this might be the winter of fake cold and an early spring. There doesn’t seem to be anything that moves that ridge and there is nothing building in the Atlantic or Southeast to stop rapid progression.

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24 minutes ago, puyallupjon said:

Not much to see there if you ask me.  Fake cold and some fog but quite seasonable.

Might see a bunch of days like this down here in early Dec. No pack but hard freezes/fog.

This picture was 12/26/2017.

20171226-02.jpg

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
 
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
Nov '18 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '18 - 05.80" (58%)
Jan '19 - 09.50(80%)
Feb '19 - 27.50" (306%)
Mar '19 - 09.00" (360%)
Apr '19 - 0.30" (30%)
 
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
Nov '19 - 06.50" (163%)
Dec '19 - 06.75" (67%)
Jan '20 - 18.75" (156%)
Feb '20 - 00.00" (0%)
Mar '20 - 04.75" (190%)
Apr '20 - 00.25"
 
2019 Thunderstorms: 14
04/02, 04/19, 05/28, 05/31, 06/01
06/12, 06/28, 07/14, 08/09, 08/10
08/28, 09/05, 09/15, 09/16
Hailstorms: 05/28 (1/4")
Max Gust: 53mph (08/10)
 
2020 Thunderstorms: 10
03/17, 05/18, 06/10, 06/12, 07/22
07/27, 08/05, 08/15, 08/16, 08/25
 
Hailstorms: 07/22 (1/3"), 08/05 (3/4")
Max Gust: ~55+ (09/07), 60 (11/17)
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) / 1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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1 minute ago, iFred said:

Looking at the EPS, the only model we should be following, I see that there is greater support for a never ending ridge.

Being serious though, my inner weenie tells me that this might be the winter of fake cold and an early spring. There doesn’t seem to be anything that moves that ridge and there is nothing building in the Atlantic or Southeast to stop rapid progression.

 

ED9908EB-4C68-4959-9BB4-4DEA0C5185AA.gif

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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3 minutes ago, iFred said:

Looking at the EPS, the only model we should be following, I see that there is greater support for a never ending ridge.

Being serious though, my inner weenie tells me that this might be the winter of fake cold and an early spring. There doesn’t seem to be anything that moves that ridge and there is nothing building in the Atlantic or Southeast to stop rapid progression.

Early springs are a hallmark of strong Ninas.

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Chilly but nothing crazy. 

  • Storm 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Meh...it'll get better.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 18 (Most recent: Nov 28, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

 

ED9908EB-4C68-4959-9BB4-4DEA0C5185AA.gif

Ok hot shot fake lawyer, how do you see this pattern progressing. Mind you, the wrong answer will lead to a ban where you can use your new found free time to grouse on Mark’s blog.

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11 minutes ago, iFred said:

Looking at the EPS, the only model we should be following, I see that there is greater support for a never ending ridge.

Being serious though, my inner weenie tells me that this might be the winter of fake cold and an early spring. There doesn’t seem to be anything that moves that ridge and there is nothing building in the Atlantic or Southeast to stop rapid progression.

Me thinks you are trying to stir the pot.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, iFred said:

Ok hot shot fake lawyer, how do you see this pattern progressing. Mind you, the wrong answer will lead to a ban where you can use your new found free time to grouse on Mark’s blog.

The ECMWF weeklies look nothing like what you described.  They showed a good pattern developing for mid December to early January.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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6 minutes ago, iFred said:

Ok hot shot fake lawyer, how do you see this pattern progressing. Mind you, the wrong answer will lead to a ban where you can use your new found free time to grouse on Mark’s blog.

WUACD’s, my furry friend Fred!

All ridging eventually goes to heaven, even during weak/moderate cold ENSO episodes.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF weeklies look nothing like what you described.  They showed a good pattern developing for mid December to early January.

Pretty sure he's flicking shitt.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 18 (Most recent: Nov 28, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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The 18z ensemble looks a bit more in line with the operational.  A lot more cold members by the 10th.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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16 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Starting to get a little concerned about my December forecast.😟

Which was?

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Which was?

Warmish/wettish.  The nice thing is we can often make up some cool early month anomalies in a hurry later in the month as averages bottom out.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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The ensemble control model shows a cold wave hitting at the same time as the operational GFS.  Hmmmm..

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

We’d probably be better off, but it’ll probably end up moderate.

A cold and wet spring is probably just as important to me as a cold and snowy winter. So I guess it depends on perspective.

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Warmish/wettish.  The nice thing is we can often make up some cool early month anomalies in a hurry later in the month as averages bottom out.

I started as skeptical for anything good until very late December but now I'm not sure.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

A cold and wet spring is probably just as important to me as a cold and snowy winter. So I guess it depends on perspective.

A cold / wet spring is important for feeding the glaciers.  I would really like to see those start to move forward again.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I started as skeptical for anything good until very late December but now I'm not sure.

Assuming this persistence-loving phase in the models is just that, a phase, I’d go with a return to westerlies.  Question is whether the blocking can work in a little something backdoor before it ages out and dies.

Or..... it’s the mid 1980’s all over again...

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Totally clear and 45 here now.  Should be looking at a freeze tonight.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Assuming this persistence-loving phase in the models is just that, a phase, I’d got with a return to westerlies.  Question is whether the blocking can work in a little something backdoor before it ages out and dies.

Or..... it’s the mid 1980’s all over again...

I would gladly take a mid 1980s redux.  Some fun times in there!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Assuming this persistence-loving phase in the models is just that, a phase, I’d got with a return to westerlies.  Question is whether the blocking can work in a little something backdoor before it ages out and dies.

Or..... it’s the mid 1980’s all over again...

Yeah, westerlies undercutting a healthy, momentarily well positioned block wouldn't be the worst thing. Sneaux is fun. Then maybe a reset around New Years.

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I would gladly take a mid 1980s redux.  Some fun times in there!

I like dry winters, although I don’t ski nearly as much as I used to.  If I did I’m sure I’d feel otherwise.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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10 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Assuming this persistence-loving phase in the models is just that, a phase, I’d got with a return to westerlies.  Question is whether the blocking can work in a little something backdoor before it ages out and dies.

Or..... it’s the mid 1980’s all over again...

I think this is pretty reasonable.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 3.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I like dry winters, although I don’t ski nearly as much as I used to.  If I did I’m sure I’d feel otherwise.

The main thing I remember about that period is how cold it was.  It was certainly dry also.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 8

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Didn’t live here in the mid-80s. What happened?

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 18 (Most recent: Nov 28, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The main thing I remember about that period is how cold it was.  It was certainly dry also.

Dry is typically cool/cold this time of year.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Didn’t live here in the mid-80s. What happened?

Lots of blocking.  Real and fake cold for really long stretches.

Ironically, I remember wearing shorts on Xmas day in 1985 out at the coast.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Didn’t live here in the mid-80s. What happened?

Blocky. Three winters in a row (1983-84, 1984-85, 1985-86) had pretty extreme blocking patterns develop which led to some extensive (3 week plus) cold and dry periods. 

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The ensemble mean temp on the final day of the run went from 38F to 43F so a small step back.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 18 (Most recent: Nov 28, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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51/31 for a 41F avg and a -1F departure.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 18 (Most recent: Nov 28, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 21)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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