November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Cedar Lake near Tim got almost 30" in Nov 2006. Would be fun to see him experience that again!

Looking at the PRISM data, November 2006 is right up there with January 1953, and December 1964 as the wettest month here in the past 125 years. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Up to 61F here. Another warm day as we only got down into the upper 50s again overnight. Double-digit + departure for the second day in a row. Gonna be tough to overcome that for this to be a cooler than normal month.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

10-day mean

[Gradient Keeper]

12z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Gradient Keeper]

12z EPS 500mb Height Anomaly 10 Day GIF

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Temp has now dropped from 56 to 48 since 9am. 

[FroYoBro]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Temp has now dropped from 56 to 48 since 9am. 

Down to 52 here. Nice November day. 

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GFS 500mb Height Anomaly 10 Day GIF

10 Day Rainfall Totals -- Wet!!!!

10 Day Snowfall Totals -- Max snow 104"!

[SouthHillFrosty]

8 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

18z GFS 500mb Height Anomaly 10 Day GIF

10 Day Rainfall Totals -- Wet!!!!

10 Day Snowfall Totals -- Max snow 104"!

It could be a early start to the skiing season

[Gradient Keeper]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

It could be a early start to the skiing season

Based on the consistency shown with the GFS/GEFS, ECMWF/EPS I would say that is looking likely to very likely.

00z GFS 4 hours 28 minutes

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Seems like the long range has some potential if it decides to drop that low down the coast instead of cutting it off to the West. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Getting windy, and hopefully that's the start of some major change in weather!

[Gradient Keeper]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Seems like the long range has some potential if it decides to drop that low down the coast instead of cutting it off to the West. 

Really quite good potential ahead and I would not rule out a snow event near/before Thanksgiving. C'MON!!!!

00z ECMWF in 6 hours 27 minutes

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS continuing to trend colder for January. N. Oregon is now below average on the latest runs. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

CFS continuing to trend colder for January. N. Oregon is now below average on the latest runs. 

Historic Winter ahead. I'm going really bullish with 4-5 snow events for PDX. Snow totals 2-39". Ya gotta believe!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Still 61 and rainy. Nice day!!!

[Blizzard777]

Good soaking rain down here in PDX.  Snowing leaves as well! Back home looks like the back end of the storm is approaching looking at the nest cams.

.38 today in Federal Way and the temp has been on a long slide downward since midnight.  

Currently  49*

 

[Jbolin]

35 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Historic Winter ahead. I'm going really bullish with 4-5 snow events for PDX. Snow totals 2-39". Ya gotta believe!

2"- 39" 

Sounds like a PDX NWS forecast 

[El_Nina]

19 minutes ago, Jbolin said:

2"- 39" 

Sounds like a PDX NWS forecast 

Reminds me of Mark Nelsen's graphic the night of 1-10-17. He started out with 1-4" then later it was 1-8" once it started to really pile up. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

11 minutes ago, El_Nina said:

Reminds me of Mark Nelsen's graphic the night of 1-10-17. He started out with 1-4" then later it was 1-8" once it started to really pile up. 

Same thing happened with Knudsen and Moffitt down here for 2-25-19. They initially called for 4" or so then it quickly went up to 8"+ after the snow began to accumulate some 6 hours earlier than forecast.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GEFS 500mb Height Anomaly 16 Day GIF

Portland (850s / Precip)

Seattle (850s / Precip)

[Jbolin]

45 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

18z GEFS 500mb Height Anomaly 16 Day GIF

Portland (850s / Precip)

Seattle (850s / Precip)

Solidly cool/cold and a metric s*** ton of precip

[MossMan]

Temp down to 41 degrees. 
.73” on the day. 

[snow_wizard]

Rather interesting the ECMWF meteograms have dropped SEA to 45 / 35 for Saturday where earlier runs had been showing 46-36.  It's not moderating in the home stretch.  Basically it appears the coming cold weather is going be giving us the temperatures we would normally see in December, and on a couple of days even a bit chillier than that on the lows.

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Temp down to 41 degrees. 
.73” on the day. 

That was a pretty sharp cold front that came through.  Very noticeable difference between the morning and early evening.

[snow_wizard]

I'm really liking the recurring northerly surface pressure gradient showing up on the models.  That feature always gives us colder weather in relation to 850s than either onshore flow or easterly surface winds.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Did someone say EPS?

 

[MossMan]

14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That was a pretty sharp cold front that came through.  Very noticeable difference between the morning and early evening.

I might not see 50’s again for quite a while! 

[snow_wizard]

Another thing to watch with this pattern coming up will be some crazy low PDO developing. There's a lot of warm water over the NE Pacific and that should be reconfigured into quite a strong -PDO signature.

[TacomaWaWx]

Have had 0.43” today...1.63” on the month. Some more rain coming in too it looks like. Have also dropped down to 47 from our midnight high temp of 59 this morning. 

[El_Nina]

0.65" so far. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Another thing to watch with this pattern coming up will be some crazy low PDO developing. There's a lot of warm water over the NE Pacific and that should be reconfigured into quite a strong -PDO signature.

850 hpa winds illustrate this.

 

[The Swamp]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Rather interesting the ECMWF meteograms have dropped SEA to 45 / 35 for Saturday where earlier runs had been showing 46-36.  It's not moderating in the home stretch.  Basically it appears the coming cold weather is going be giving us the temperatures we would normally see in December, and on a couple of days even a bit chillier than that on the lows.

1 degree? Really?

You can't be serious. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Rainy but still 57F which is the low temp for the day. Oof.

[Gradient Keeper]

12 minutes ago, puyallupjon said:

1 degree? Really?

You can't be serious. 

36 is not nearly as cold as 35, and don't get me started on 34.

00z GFS in 2 minutes!

[MossMan]

23 minutes ago, puyallupjon said:

1 degree? Really?

You can't be serious. 

1 degree makes a HUGE difference when we are talking the difference between 32 and 33! 

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

1 degree makes a HUGE difference when we are talking the difference between 32 and 33! 

Correct.

00z ECMWF in 2 hours

[Gradient Keeper]

Three things I'm watching for this run.

Trough digging back more

Stronger blocking/amplification Day 7+

 

PV be displaced towards Western Northwest Territories/northern Alberta.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 1

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2