November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

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Day 2.5 (Past 4 runs)

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Day 3

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Day 2.5 850s trending a bit colder over Western Washington, Northwest Oregon

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Day 4

[Meatyorologist]

GFS spins up a 976mb low in the GOA where there was nothing last run, at just 96 hours out. Some serious forecast differences for just one run apart and within four days.

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Day 5

[FroYoBro]

20 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Lots of places below freezing already and a few upper 20s too. 42 here currently. 

Yikes. You live in a tough spot if you enjoy extreme temperatures. 

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Day 6

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Day 7

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Day 7.5

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Day 8 That is one heck of a trough

[TacomaWaWx]

12 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Yikes. You live in a tough spot if you enjoy extreme temperatures. 

Yeah the coldest I’ve been at this location the past 15 years is 14 degrees. Really hard to even get down into the teens here during big cold snaps. 

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Jbolin said:

Jim, do you have any data for your location in previous nina years that come even close to the anomalies we're seeing right now?

This is pretty abnormal behavior for the early part of a major Nina season.  There are a few like 1916, 1924, and 1964.  Based on this and some other years I've been looking at there two likely scenarios emerging.  One is we continue to see the recurring cold snaps with a climax of a major blast in December.  The other is for pretty much steady cold (with a few breaks of course) through January and probably into February.  If we have the major blast in December the remainder of the winter will probably be relatively mild.  It's as if the big stuff holding off keeps the overall cold regime going.

[MossMan]

29. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Down to 34F.

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Day 8.5 Big chunk of arctic air progressing south into north-central BC/AB.

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Day 9

[snow_wizard]

40 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 1.5 (Past 4 runs) Early week through digging back a bit better.

No doubt the models have a warm bias in the short range on these cold troughs.  All of them over the past few weeks have verified colder than progged at just a couple of days out.

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

No doubt the models have a warm bias in the short range on these cold troughs.  All of them over the past few weeks have verified colder than progged at just a couple of days out.

Yep. Agreed.

[High Desert Mat?]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This is pretty abnormal behavior for the early part of a major Nina season.  There are a few like 1916, 1924, and 1964.  Based on this and some other years I've been looking at there two likely scenarios emerging.  One is we continue to see the recurring cold snaps with a climax of a major blast in December.  The other is for pretty much steady cold (with a few breaks of course) through January and probably into February.  If we have the major blast in December the remainder of the winter will probably be relatively mild.  It's as if the big stuff holding off keeps the overall cold regime going.

You should write children’s books. These are the stories of our childhood. 

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Day 10

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah the coldest I’ve been at this location the past 15 years is 14 degrees. Really hard to even get down into the teens here during big cold snaps. 

It got down to 8 here in November 2010.  Amazing I've lived here for 20 years and the coldest min I've seen is in November.  I recorded a zero in December 1990 when I was living in Bothell.  The best I've ever seen in January was 9 in 1996 in Woodinville.  When I was a kid I seem remember something around zero in Jan 1972, but I wasn't keeping records yet.  The 5 I recorded in February 1989 was another really cold one.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 10

Getting interesting again.

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00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[FroYoBro]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Getting interesting again.

Windstorm?

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Getting interesting again.

Indeed. A lot of potential ahead.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Windstorm?

Another block setting up / potential cold.  We will have a pretty stormy period later this week.  There could be a good wind in there.  I think the overall background state will be too cold for that though.  Usually big windstorms happen in an overall warmer context.

[Deweydog]

#2cold4storms

[The Swamp]

Lots of mountain snow.

[TacomaWaWx]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It got down to 8 here in November 2010.  Amazing I've lived here for 20 years and the coldest min I've seen is in November.  I recorded a zero in December 1990 when I was living in Bothell.  The best I've ever seen in January was 9 in 1996 in Woodinville.  When I was a kid I seem remember something around zero in Jan 1972, but I wasn't keeping records yet.  The 5 I recorded in February 1989 was another really cold one.

Yeah we hit 16 in February 2019...14 in November 2010. 

[snow_wizard]

30 degrees now.  Should be easy to make the mid 20s tonight.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Very nice!!

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00z GEM Day 5 and 6.5 has back to back lows 973, 972mb into Central Vancouver Island.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, puyallupjon said:

Lots of mountain snow.

No doubt.

[TacomaWaWx]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

30 degrees now.  Should be easy to make the mid 20s tonight.

Wind finally died down here and it’s 41. Should freeze at the very least tonight at the best upper 20s here. 

[FroYoBro]

Just hit freezing here. Impressive. Meanwhile it is still 37 at pdx. 

[snow_wizard]

18 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

#2cold4storms

Just sayin the trajectory usually isn't that favorable in a situation with cold zonal flow for a classic windstorm.

[Deweydog]

8 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Just hit freezing here. Impressive. Meanwhile it is still 37 at pdx. 

Who’s turn is it to go kick the sensor?

[MossMan]

35 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

I’m in the white. 

[FroYoBro]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Who’s turn is it to go kick the sensor?

That drunk fisherman guy.