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November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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Downvote this post if you want a windstorm.

Briefly beautiful sunrise this morning. Shot from the car. You can even see the inverted shadow of Mt. Hood.  

Posted Images

Wow the 12z GFS looks stormy for the next week. Warmer and wetter seems to be the trend now for early next week. Worse for mountain snow, but still looks active and interesting. And it actually does get cooler again once some of those lows pass by. 

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5 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Wow the 12z GFS looks stormy for the next week. Warmer and wetter seems to be the trend now for early next week. Worse for mountain snow, but still looks active and interesting. And it actually does get cooler again once some of those lows pass by. 

Like this frame at hour 162 looks pretty wild. 

 

wow.jpg

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2 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said:

Snohomish to Lane would include king county. Did the track change at all or inline with previous runs?

You can always look for yourself on the latest GFS. Very easy to follow lows on this site! Just click the arrows to move the forecast time. 

 

Looks like the latest run puts the low at the nw tip of Washington and moves east from there. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112818&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197

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2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

You can always look for yourself on the latest GFS. Very easy to follow lows on this site! Just click the arrows to move the forecast time. 

 

Looks like the latest run puts the low at the nw tip of Washington and moves east from there. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112818&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197

That site is way different from metrostar interesting

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1 minute ago, seattleweatherguy said:

977 low coming in from the west near southern vancouver islnd seems like the Euro and the GFS are at odds as usual.

Exact low strength and location will be tough for models. You will see things moving around right up until the event is happening probably. 

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1 hour ago, Jesse said:

Hope you are doing ok man. I've noticed you haven't really seemed yourself lately.

I've definitely been feeling weird. Different in terms of feeling restless and more scared than usual I suppose.

Looks like it's 44F out there with some steady rain.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I've definitely been feeling weird. Different in terms of feeling restless and more scared than usual I suppose.

Looks like it's 44F out there with some steady rain.

Sorry to hear that. I think it's been a rough year for many psychologically. And the last few weeks have been especially bad with the election and everything.

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Just now, Jesse said:

Sorry to hear that. I think it's been a rough year for many psychologically. And the last few weeks have been especially bad with the election and everything.

Once there is snow, I would love to get some snowshoes and do a proper hike in the snow up in the mtns. Or once we get a foot here at some point. ❄️

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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9 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Once there is snow, I would love to get some snowshoes and do a proper hike in the snow up in the mtns. Or once we get a foot here at some point. ❄️

I’m still game to give you a lift up to the pass sometime. Let’s try to make that happen this winter.

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30 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

You must be new.

If you’re just going to sit there and try to say the opposite of what everyone else seems to be excited about here it doesn’t do a lot for this place. Tim does the same thing but at least he puts an ungodly amount of effort into making it seem sincere and normal. You are taking the lazy route ;)

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13 minutes ago, Jesse said:

If you’re just going to sit there and try to say the opposite of what everyone else seems to be excited about here it doesn’t do a lot for this place. Tim does the same thing but at least he puts an ungodly amount of effort into making it seem sincere and normal. You are taking the lazy route ;)

The models dont show any lowland snow here yet, so they look blah to me.  Sorry you are so bothered by my honesty, not sorry.

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Just now, hawkstwelve said:

Quite breezy. 17-18mb gradient between BLI and PDX. 

Western WA definitely flirting with non-event status getting on the north side of the low and much less wind. 

slp.93.0000.gif

These things pretty much always trend north. You guys are in a good spot.

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Just now, Jesse said:

These things pretty much always trend north. You guys are in a good spot.

I was about to say the same thing actually. 

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-15

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-32.09”

Snowfall-15.5”

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11 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Not sure if it's been shared here already or not, but the ECMWF weeklies from last night had a signal for troughing over the Yukon/BC/Pacific NW areas off and on through Christmas.

More consistent signaling for ridging in the East, at the very least. Chalk that up as a W. 

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-z500_anom-1604880000-1606348800-1608854400-40.gif

Here is the crayon interpretation of the weeklies, courtesy of Brett Anderson of Accuweather.  Wet, and cold slowly heading south.

 

NOV10A.png?w=632

NOV10B.png?w=632

NOV10C.png?w=632

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Low of 41 this morning...went up to Crystal mountain last night they had about 3” of fresh snow at 4400’ last night. Went sledding and did a few snowboard tricks for the first time this winter. 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-15

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-32.09”

Snowfall-15.5”

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Low of 41 this morning...went up to Crystal mountain last night they had about 3” of fresh snow at 4400’ last night. Went sledding and did a few snowboard tricks for the first time this winter. 

I'm about to get new snow tires put on today so I can head up to the passes this week.

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I'm about to get new snow tires put on today so I can head up to the passes this week.

Nice! So glad we’re getting into mountain snow season. 

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-15

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-32.09”

Snowfall-15.5”

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5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

You're right. My only pause is the Euro, which the 06z run brought the low in even further south than the 00z.

We shall see.

1605312000-Nyao5lsnzQg.png

I'm hoping our lower chances for interesting weather comforts you.

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Nice mix of weather on the 12z GFS. Active and variable.

But WHO is it active for? Is it active for everyone, or just a select few? Do the 5 million people in Western WA get active weather, or do the 3 million people in Western OR get it? 

Can you please think of everyone when you make these claims? It's imperative we all understand that what's good for one group is not good for another!

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

But WHO is it active for? Is it active for everyone, or just a select few? Do the 5 million people in Western WA get active weather, or do the 3 million people in Western OR get it? 

Can you please think of everyone when you make these claims? It's imperative we all understand that what's good for one group is not good for another!

Are you this annoying in person?

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The Puget Sound can keep their wind storm. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Pretty enjoyable looking month, at the moment. 

Am I wrong for thinking we've have pretty well neutered Novembers the last few years?

You are correct. Seems like it’s been quite the stretch of dull ridging mixed with warm rain events for November lately. This is a nice change of pace.

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1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

As a member of the Puget Sound weather chapter, we thank you for the offer but decline it and sent it south to Oregon

I would say odds are greater this ends up affecting western WA more than western OR but we will see maybe the euros right. One things for certain someone’s gonna get nailed. 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-15

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-32.09”

Snowfall-15.5”

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