November 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Jesse 8931]

21 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said:

still shows that same storm track disagreement with the ecwf or has it shifted south?

It's the ECMWF, or just the Euro.

[seattleweatherguy 480]

6 minutes ago, Jesse said:

It's the ECMWF, or just the Euro.

Will try to remember!

[hawkstwelve 7241]

12z GFS showing wind gusts between 40-50 mph from Snohomish to Lane counties on Friday night, peaking in the 50-55 mph range on Saturday morning.

[FroYoBro 2649]

Wow the 12z GFS looks stormy for the next week. Warmer and wetter seems to be the trend now for early next week. Worse for mountain snow, but still looks active and interesting. And it actually does get cooler again once some of those lows pass by. 

[FroYoBro 2649]

5 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Wow the 12z GFS looks stormy for the next week. Warmer and wetter seems to be the trend now for early next week. Worse for mountain snow, but still looks active and interesting. And it actually does get cooler again once some of those lows pass by. 

Like this frame at hour 162 looks pretty wild. 

 

[hawkstwelve 7241]

No more snowstorm for Puget Sound on the 12z GFS.   

I knew it was too good to be true!! This winter sucks!!

[seattleweatherguy 480]

7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z GFS showing wind gusts between 40-50 mph from Snohomish to Lane counties on Friday night, peaking in the 50-55 mph range on Saturday morning.

Snohomish to Lane would include king county. Did the track change at all or inline with previous runs?

[FroYoBro 2649]

2 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said:

Snohomish to Lane would include king county. Did the track change at all or inline with previous runs?

You can always look for yourself on the latest GFS. Very easy to follow lows on this site! Just click the arrows to move the forecast time. 

 

Looks like the latest run puts the low at the nw tip of Washington and moves east from there. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112818&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197

[seattleweatherguy 480]

2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

You can always look for yourself on the latest GFS. Very easy to follow lows on this site! Just click the arrows to move the forecast time. 

 

Looks like the latest run puts the low at the nw tip of Washington and moves east from there. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112818&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197

That site is way different from metrostar interesting

[seattleweatherguy 480]

977 low coming in from the west near southern vancouver islnd seems like the Euro and the GFS are at odds as usual.

[FroYoBro 2649]

1 minute ago, seattleweatherguy said:

977 low coming in from the west near southern vancouver islnd seems like the Euro and the GFS are at odds as usual.

Exact low strength and location will be tough for models. You will see things moving around right up until the event is happening probably. 

[Tyler Mode 1643]

16 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Like this frame at hour 162 looks pretty wild. 

 

If that wasn't a double barrel low it'd be better for wind.

[FroYoBro 2649]

Just now, Tyler Mode said:

If that wasn't a double barrel low it'd be better for wind.

Yeah, that one has been shown to wander and weaken around the pacific in most runs. Still an interesting pattern depending where it goes. 

[GHweatherChris 3511]

2 hours ago, Runtmc said:

I think you should go back to requesting downvotes when you post.  It got you more attention, which seems to be what you seek.

You must be new.

[TigerWoodsLibido 5627]

1 hour ago, Jesse said:

Hope you are doing ok man. I've noticed you haven't really seemed yourself lately.

I've definitely been feeling weird. Different in terms of feeling restless and more scared than usual I suppose.

Looks like it's 44F out there with some steady rain.

[Jesse 8931]

22 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

No more snowstorm for Puget Sound on the 12z GFS.   

I knew it was too good to be true!! This winter sucks!!

PugetSoundsAndrew

[Jesse 8931]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I've definitely been feeling weird. Different in terms of feeling restless and more scared than usual I suppose.

Looks like it's 44F out there with some steady rain.

Sorry to hear that. I think it's been a rough year for many psychologically. And the last few weeks have been especially bad with the election and everything.

[TigerWoodsLibido 5627]

Just now, Jesse said:

Sorry to hear that. I think it's been a rough year for many psychologically. And the last few weeks have been especially bad with the election and everything.

Once there is snow, I would love to get some snowshoes and do a proper hike in the snow up in the mtns. Or once we get a foot here at some point. 

[Jesse 8931]

9 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Once there is snow, I would love to get some snowshoes and do a proper hike in the snow up in the mtns. Or once we get a foot here at some point. 

I’m still game to give you a lift up to the pass sometime. Let’s try to make that happen this winter.

[Jesse 8931]

30 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

You must be new.

If you’re just going to sit there and try to say the opposite of what everyone else seems to be excited about here it doesn’t do a lot for this place. Tim does the same thing but at least he puts an ungodly amount of effort into making it seem sincere and normal. You are taking the lazy route

[hawkstwelve 7241]

12z WRF GFS looks to be coming in a hair further south with the low than the 00z run.

It's also 13mb weaker at 4PM Friday.

[seattleweatherguy 480]

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z WRF GFS looks to be coming in a hair further south with the low than the 00z run.

It's also 13mb weaker at 4PM Friday.

Looks like we dodged a bullet!

[TacomaWaWx 4399]

It’ll be interesting to see which way it goes. Either way someone’s getting a windstorm soon. 

[GHweatherChris 3511]

13 minutes ago, Jesse said:

If you’re just going to sit there and try to say the opposite of what everyone else seems to be excited about here it doesn’t do a lot for this place. Tim does the same thing but at least he puts an ungodly amount of effort into making it seem sincere and normal. You are taking the lazy route

The models dont show any lowland snow here yet, so they look blah to me.  Sorry you are so bothered by my honesty, not sorry.

[hawkstwelve 7241]

Quite breezy. 17-18mb gradient between BLI and PDX. 

Western WA definitely flirting with non-event status getting on the north side of the low and much less wind. 

[Jesse 8931]

Just now, hawkstwelve said:

Quite breezy. 17-18mb gradient between BLI and PDX. 

Western WA definitely flirting with non-event status getting on the north side of the low and much less wind. 

These things pretty much always trend north. You guys are in a good spot.

[TacomaWaWx 4399]

Just now, Jesse said:

These things pretty much always trend north. You guys are in a good spot.

I was about to say the same thing actually. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth 2951]

11 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Not sure if it's been shared here already or not, but the ECMWF weeklies from last night had a signal for troughing over the Yukon/BC/Pacific NW areas off and on through Christmas.

More consistent signaling for ridging in the East, at the very least. Chalk that up as a W. 

Here is the crayon interpretation of the weeklies, courtesy of Brett Anderson of Accuweather.  Wet, and cold slowly heading south.

 

[TacomaWaWx 4399]

Low of 41 this morning...went up to Crystal mountain last night they had about 3” of fresh snow at 4400’ last night. Went sledding and did a few snowboard tricks for the first time this winter. 

[hawkstwelve 7241]

2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

These things pretty much always trend north. You guys are in a good spot.

You're right. My only pause is the Euro, which the 06z run brought the low in even further south than the 00z.

We shall see.

[Jesse 8931]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Low of 41 this morning...went up to Crystal mountain last night they had about 3” of fresh snow at 4400’ last night. Went sledding and did a few snowboard tricks for the first time this winter. 

I'm about to get new snow tires put on today so I can head up to the passes this week.

[TacomaWaWx 4399]

2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I'm about to get new snow tires put on today so I can head up to the passes this week.

Nice! So glad we’re getting into mountain snow season. 

[Jesse 8931]

Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

Nice! So glad we’re getting into mountain snow season. 

Hoping for a banner year. Off to a good start.

[Jesse 8931]

5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

You're right. My only pause is the Euro, which the 06z run brought the low in even further south than the 00z.

We shall see.

I'm hoping our lower chances for interesting weather comforts you.

[SouthHillFrosty 1405]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

No more snowstorm for Puget Sound on the 12z GFS.   

I knew it was too good to be true!! This winter sucks!!

We didn't even get to appreciate the run cause most of us were asleep

[hawkstwelve 7241]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

I'm hoping our lower chances for interesting weather comforts you.

How dare I root for a windstorm in the Puget Sound area! The nerve of some people!!!!!!

 

[hawkstwelve 7241]

Most of the 12z GFS ensembles bring a 970-980mb low through Vancouver Island.

BUT WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OREGON?!?!?!?!

[SouthHillFrosty 1405]

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Most of the 12z GFS ensembles bring a 970-980mb low through Vancouver Island.

BUT WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OREGON?!?!?!?!

Massive blizzard with snow banks that are 12 feet high

[Jesse 8931]

Nice mix of weather on the 12z GFS. Active and variable.

[jakerepp 1067]

5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Nice mix of weather on the 12z GFS. Active and variable.

Pretty enjoyable looking month, at the moment. 

Am I wrong for thinking we've have pretty well neutered Novembers the last few years?

[hawkstwelve 7241]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Nice mix of weather on the 12z GFS. Active and variable.

But WHO is it active for? Is it active for everyone, or just a select few? Do the 5 million people in Western WA get active weather, or do the 3 million people in Western OR get it? 

Can you please think of everyone when you make these claims? It's imperative we all understand that what's good for one group is not good for another!

[Jesse 8931]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

But WHO is it active for? Is it active for everyone, or just a select few? Do the 5 million people in Western WA get active weather, or do the 3 million people in Western OR get it? 

Can you please think of everyone when you make these claims? It's imperative we all understand that what's good for one group is not good for another!

Are you this annoying in person?

[SilverFallsAndrew 14875]

The Puget Sound can keep their wind storm. 

[Jesse 8931]

3 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Pretty enjoyable looking month, at the moment. 

Am I wrong for thinking we've have pretty well neutered Novembers the last few years?

You are correct. Seems like it’s been quite the stretch of dull ridging mixed with warm rain events for November lately. This is a nice change of pace.

[hawkstwelve 7241]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Are you this annoying in person?

Only one way to find out, Jesse!  

[SouthHillFrosty 1405]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The Puget Sound can keep their wind storm. 

As a member of the Puget Sound weather chapter, we thank you for the offer but decline it and send it south to Oregon

[FroYoBro 2649]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

As a member of the Puget Sound weather chapter, we thank you for the offer but decline it and sent it south to Oregon

I will accept it for the greater Portland area. Thank you. 

[Deweydog 14107]

1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

I will accept it for the greater Portland area. Thank you. 

Do you have enough fridge space to store it until Friday?

[Meatyorologist 2007]

Downvote this post if you want a windstorm.

[TacomaWaWx 4399]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

As a member of the Puget Sound weather chapter, we thank you for the offer but decline it and sent it south to Oregon

I would say odds are greater this ends up affecting western WA more than western OR but we will see maybe the euros right. One things for certain someone’s gonna get nailed.