DJ Droppin 9299 Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Hmmm. Weaker, further south. Maybe it will rapidly intensify as it approaches the Washington Coast. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Meatyorologist 2007 Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Much further south and weaker. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Meatyorologist 2007 Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Just now, seattleweatherguy said: You mean northward but weaker hmmm sounds closer to a non event now.. Nope, I was correct. Forward and southward. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
seattleweatherguy 480 Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Just now, Meatyorologist said: Much further south and weaker. Event over for western Washington Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Meatyorologist 2007 Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Slightly different starting conditions, and.... voila! Minor windstorm and well south of the Sound. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Deweydog 14109 Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 NAM FTW!!! 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to post Share on other sites
seattleweatherguy 480 Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Just now, Meatyorologist said: Slightly different starting conditions, and.... voila! Minor windstorm and well south of the Sound. Too bad it can’t drive colder air down as it goes south! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Requiem 2648 Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Glad I didn’t get my hopes up... well maybe I did a little bit :) Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9299 Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 It is a weaker low, but much better track for a localized/PDX, northern Willamette Valley wind storm. PDX-EUG at least -10mb. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9299 Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Day 3 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9299 Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Day 4 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9299 Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, Deweydog said: NAM FTW!!! NAM wins? Does the GEM and EURO comes in stronger? You could cut the tension with a spoon in here. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
BLI snowman 6804 Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: It is a weaker low, but much better track for a localized/PDX, northern Willamette Valley wind storm. PDX-EUG at least -10mb. Yeah, not looking like a regional blow anyways at this point (need an offshore, SW to NNE trajectory for that). It'll likely be a localized high wind event relegated to within 50-75 miles of the track. 00z GFS actually shows a pretty potent event, quite rapid deepening as it heads ashore. This one looks like a potential analog, FWIW https://climate.washington.edu/stormking/November1958.html 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Meatyorologist 2007 Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Don't make any judgements off this run. This is just demonstrating how finicky this whole situation is. Don't be surprised if this is a flukey run, or if the Euro sticks to its guns. There will be a lot of wobbling in potential storm strength, track placement, timing. We likely won't know anything for certain for another 36 hours as models handle this energy ejection from the trough off the east Asian coast. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9299 Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Day 4.5 (Past 4 runs) Aleutian ridge quite a bit stronger, more amplified this run. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9299 Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Day 5 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9299 Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Far milder Day 5-7 this run. Unfortunately. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
TigerWoodsLibido 5630 Posted November 11, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Nice 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats: Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21) Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26) Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021) Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24) Total snowfall: 0.0" Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7" GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy My Twitter @357jerseys4hope 24 Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9299 Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Day 6 Not a fan Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Requiem 2648 Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Face value GFS looks quite good for a W. Valley special— we’ll see how models play around with strength. 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9299 Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Day 7 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SilverFallsAndrew 14915 Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 7 Ugly Quote Snowfall Precip 2020-21: 10.5" 2020-21: 52.02" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Link to post Share on other sites
Brian_in_Leavenworth 2951 Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 7 Looks like last night's Euro run Quote Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9299 Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Day 8 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9299 Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 00z GEM 970mb Tatoosh Island 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
TigerWoodsLibido 5630 Posted November 11, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 So much for that Cascade snowpack. Probly gonna be well into December before openings if this verifies. 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats: Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21) Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26) Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021) Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24) Total snowfall: 0.0" Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7" GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy My Twitter @357jerseys4hope 24 Link to post Share on other sites
MR.SNOWMIZER 6948 Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Very rare to have a low of that strength take that track. Most likely will be a central to north Vancouver Island landfall . 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to post Share on other sites
MossMan 10604 Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 I know call me crazy but I think the models might just be struggling with low placement and strength... 1 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
iFred 5194 Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, MossMan said: I know call me crazy but I think the models might just be struggling with low placement and strength... No, its set in stone. This will be a non event and the only maps we should be posting are only a few hours out. Also, snow this winter is canceled. 1 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Brian_in_Leavenworth 2951 Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: So much for that Cascade snowpack. Probly gonna be well into December before openings if this verifies. Still shows 3 feet of snow for the WA cascades before day 10. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9299 Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SilverFallsAndrew 14915 Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Just one run, but not looking good. Also about time to start mentioning it’s been a pretty dry month so far in the willamette valley. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2020-21: 10.5" 2020-21: 52.02" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Link to post Share on other sites
FroYoBro 2649 Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Weather watching would be boring if models were 100% right 5 days out. Still a lot of interesting possibilities. Still looks pretty windy for Oregon on this run. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
MossMan 10604 Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 11 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals I’m in the whi...Oh never mind. 2 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
MossMan 10604 Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Just one run, but not looking good. Also about time to start mentioning it’s been a pretty dry month so far in the willamette valley. It’s a dark night on the forum...And outside!! Currently 31 frosty degrees here. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Deweydog 14109 Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Running out of time, guys. 2 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9299 Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Long range GFS is different, but again we're talking about Day 10+ pure speculation. Some colder air slides back into eastern Washington. East wind pattern. 1 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
MossMan 10604 Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: Running out of time, guys. I know! And I don’t have the Christmas lights up yet and it’s really starting to stress me out! 1 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9299 Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Canadian is vastly different after Day 5. Big ridge over us and merging with Alaskan block. What a drastic change. Outlier I'm thinking.... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SilverFallsAndrew 14915 Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Winter cancel already! 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2020-21: 10.5" 2020-21: 52.02" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Link to post Share on other sites
jakerepp 1067 Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 25 minutes ago, MossMan said: I know call me crazy but I think the models might just be struggling with low placement and strength... You’re crazy 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SilverFallsAndrew 14915 Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Hopefully clown range can throw us a bone. Quote Snowfall Precip 2020-21: 10.5" 2020-21: 52.02" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Link to post Share on other sites
Phil 11795 Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 6 hours ago, High Desert Mat? said: Is Phil banned? This semester has my workload through the roof. Haven’t been posting as much. Quote Personal Weather Station: NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=F3819&num=168&banner=NONE Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62/graph/2019-08-23/2019-08-23/daily Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9299 Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 After the wind event/storm Friday evening the GFS and GEM are completely whacked out. Model noise. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
snow_wizard 11746 Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 I like tonight's GFS, but then again I'm looking for different things than a lot of people on here. To me the recurring blocking over the NE is a very big deal. I kind of like Friday's low on this run. Looks like a pretty chilly track for the Puget Sound area. Speaking of chilly....thicknesses fall below 528 for SEA a few different times over the next 10 days. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2020-21 stats Total Snowfall = 7.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5 Total Hail = 0.0" Coldest Low = 23 Lows 32 or below = 37 Highs 32 or below = 2 Lows 20 or below = 0 Highs 40 or below = 5 Link to post Share on other sites
Phil 11795 Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Just one run, but not looking good. Also about time to start mentioning it’s been a pretty dry month so far in the willamette valley. Just caught up with this thread. IMO the mood swings after each model run warrant the issuance of weenie tags. 2 1 Quote Personal Weather Station: NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=F3819&num=168&banner=NONE Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62/graph/2019-08-23/2019-08-23/daily Link to post Share on other sites
seattleweatherguy 480 Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 39 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 00z GEM 970mb Tatoosh Island that be a Western Wa windstorm 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
seattleweatherguy 480 Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 1 minute ago, Phil said: Just caught up with this thread. IMO the mood swings after each model run warrant the issuance of weenie tags. My fault Phil! Do you think we get snow this year? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Requiem 2648 Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 Maybe I'm totally wrong here but I do like how models are starting to intensify the low as it hits land rather than gradually weakening it after a stronger peak... 2 1 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to post Share on other sites
Deweydog 14109 Posted November 11, 2020 Report Share Posted November 11, 2020 The only thing we’re sure of is the fact we’re not sure! 2 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to post Share on other sites
Recommended Posts
Posted by Meatyorologist,
22 reactions
Go to this post
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.